Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy on Friday, 28 November 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanctions, Fuel Market, Renewables, Coal, Overview of Key Events for Investors.
Current developments in the global fuel and energy sector as of 28 November 2025 are unfolding amidst conflicting signals, attracting the attention of investors and participants in the energy market. Diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts inspire cautious optimism regarding a reduction in geopolitical tension, with potential peace initiatives being discussed that may ultimately ease sanction pressures. However, Western countries maintain a tough stance on sanctions, keeping a challenging environment for traditional energy resource export flows.
Global oil prices continue to remain at relatively low levels due to an oversupply and weakened demand. The North Sea Brent benchmark hovers around $61–62 per barrel, while the American WTI is in the vicinity of $57, close to two-year lows and significantly below last year's levels. The European gas market enters winter in a relatively balanced state: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in EU countries are approximately 75–80% full by the end of November. These reserves provide a significant buffer, and exchange gas prices remain at relatively low levels. However, the factor of weather uncertainty persists: a sudden drop in temperatures could lead to spikes in price volatility as the season progresses.
At the same time, the global energy transition is accelerating — many countries are setting records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), although traditional resources are still necessary for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are injecting unprecedented amounts of funds into “green” energy, even as oil, gas, and coal remain the backbone of global energy supply. In Russia, following the recent autumn fuel crisis, emergency government measures have stabilized the domestic oil product market ahead of winter: wholesale prices for petrol and diesel have turned downwards, eliminating shortages at filling stations. Below is a detailed overview of critical news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity segments of the energy sector as of today.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices at a Minimum
The global oil market is exhibiting weak price dynamics due to fundamental factors of oversupply and slowing demand. Brent barrel trades within a narrow range of approximately $61–62, while WTI hovers around $57, about 15% lower than last year's level and close to multi-year lows.
- OPEC+ Production Growth. The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase output. In December 2025, the total production quota for the participants of the deal is set to rise by an additional 137,000 barrels per day. While further increases have been postponed at least until spring 2026 due to concerns over market oversaturation, the current increase in supply is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Slowing Demand. The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly decreased. The IEA estimates the increase in demand for 2025 at less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to approximately 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts are now more conservative — around +1.2 million barrels per day. The weakening global economy and the effects of previous price spikes are limiting consumption; an additional factor is the slowing industrial growth in China.
- Geopolitical Factors. Signals regarding a possible peace plan for Ukraine have temporarily reduced some geopolitical premiums in prices. However, there are currently no real agreements, and the sanctions regime remains in place, so a sustainable calming of the market has not occurred. Traders continue to react nervously to news: without real progress, any peace initiatives yield only short-lived effects.
- Shale Production in the USA. Relatively low prices are beginning to curb activity among American shale companies. The number of drilling rigs in key oil-bearing basins in the USA is declining as prices have fallen to around $60 per barrel, making the development of new wells less profitable. If this price environment persists, growth in US supply may noticeably slow.
The cumulative impact of these factors is leading to a slight surplus in the market: supply is now just exceeding demand. Oil prices are holding close to the lows of recent years. Some analysts note that if current trends continue, the average price of Brent could drop to $50 per barrel in 2026. For now, the market remains in relative equilibrium, lacking strong impulses for either growth or decline.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Reserves at Moderate Prices
In the gas market, attention is focused on Europe's experience throughout the heating season. EU countries have approached the winter cold with underground storage facilities filled to comfortable levels of 75–80% of their capacity by the end of November. This is just slightly below last autumn's record reserves and provides a strong buffer in case of prolonged cold spells. As a result, and due to diversified supplies, European gas prices remain at low levels: December TTF futures are around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1000 cubic metres) — a minimum over more than a year.
High reserves have been made possible by record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the autumn, European companies actively procured LNG from the USA, Qatar, and other countries, almost compensating for the reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. More than 10 billion cubic metres of LNG arrived at European ports monthly, allowing storage facilities to be filled in advance. An additional factor was the mild weather: a warm autumn and a delayed onset of the cold have restrained consumption, allowing gas reserves to be drained more slowly than usual.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears stable: reserves are large, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This is favourable for the industry and energy sector in Europe as winter begins, reducing costs and risks of interruptions. However, market participants remain vigilant regarding weather forecasts: in the event of abnormal cold, the balance could shift quickly, forcing accelerated withdrawal of gas from UGS and causing price spikes as the season draws to a close.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives and Sanction Pressures Shape Mixed Expectations
In the second half of November, cautious hopes for geopolitical easing arose. The USA unofficially proposed a peaceful settlement plan regarding Ukraine, which includes phased lifting of some sanctions against Russia. According to media reports, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky received a signal from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement, developed with Moscow's involvement. The prospect of reaching a compromise inspires optimism: de-escalation of the conflict could potentially lift restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources and improve the business climate in commodity markets.
However, there has not yet been any real breakthrough; on the contrary, the West is intensifying sanction pressures. On 21 November, a new US sanctions package targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect. Major companies such as Rosneft and LUKOIL have been hit by restrictions — their foreign partners are required to completely halt cooperation with them by this date. In mid-November, the UK and EU announced additional measures against Russian energy assets. London has given companies until 28 November to complete dealings with these oil giants, after which any cooperation must cease. The US administration has also threatened additional severe steps (up to special tariffs on countries continuing to buy Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Hence, there are currently no concrete shifts in diplomacy, and the sanction standoff persists in full force. Nevertheless, the mere fact that dialogue continues between key players provides hope that the most stringent restrictions may be slowed pending the outcomes of negotiations. In the coming weeks, markets will be monitoring contacts among world leaders: success in peace initiatives will improve investor sentiment and soften the rhetoric on restrictions, while failure threatens new escalations. The results of these efforts will define long-term cooperation conditions in the energy sector and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China under Sanction Pressures
India and China, the two largest Asian consumers, are compelled to adapt to sanction pressures. Under Western pressure, Indian refiners are reducing purchases of Russian oil (notably, Reliance halted Urals imports by 20 November, receiving additional price discounts in return). In China, state-owned companies have temporarily suspended new deals for Russian oil due to concerns over secondary sanctions; however, independent refineries have ramped up purchases to record levels, seizing the opportunity. Despite China also increasing its oil and gas production, the country still relies on external supplies for approximately 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas.
Energy Transition: RES Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
Many countries have established new records in "green" generation. In the EU, by the end of 2024, total generation from solar and wind for the first time exceeded production from coal and gas stations; in the USA, the share of RES surpassed 30% at the beginning of 2025. China continues to install record volumes of solar and wind capacities annually, strengthening its leadership. Investments in clean energy are also at an all-time high: according to IEA estimates, they will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half aimed at RES, electricity networks, and energy storage.
Nevertheless, energy systems still require traditional generation for stability. The rising share of solar and wind creates balancing challenges, as RES do not produce electricity consistently. Gas-fired and, in some locations, coal-fired power plants are still needed to cover peak loads — for example, last winter, some countries in Europe had to temporarily increase coal generation during windless periods. Authorities are rapidly investing in energy storage and smart grids, seeking to enhance reliability. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will become the largest in global electricity generation, surpassing coal; yet traditional plants will remain necessary as reserves in the coming years. The energy transition achieves new heights but requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources.
Coal: Steady Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global push towards decarbonisation, coal retains a crucial place in the energy balance. In autumn, China boosted electricity generation at coal-fired power plants to record levels, even though domestic production slightly declined — this raised imports to multi-year highs and pushed global prices above summer lows. Other large consumers (e.g., India) continue to generate most of their electricity from coal, while many developing countries are building new coal-fired power stations. Exporters are increasing supplies, capitalising on high demand. Following the upheavals of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains strong, and prices are moderate. Even with the implementation of climate strategies, coal will remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts forecast that in the upcoming decade, coal generation, particularly in Asia, will retain significant importance despite efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalisation After the Autumn Crisis
The Russian fuel market has achieved stabilization following the acute crisis at the start of autumn. By late summer, wholesale prices for petrol and diesel in the country soared to record heights, causing local fuel shortages at some filling stations. The government was compelled to intervene: starting from late September, temporary restrictions on the export of oil products were imposed, while oil refineries increased fuel output after completing maintenance work. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, the price spike was reversed.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for petrol AI-92 had decreased by approximately 4%, while AI-95 had fallen by around 3%, and diesel had also dropped by about 3%. The stabilization of the wholesale market began to reflect on retail prices: consumer prices for petrol have been slowly declining for the third consecutive week (albeit by just a few kopecks). On 20 November, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at guaranteeing priority supply of oil products to the domestic market. Collectively, the measures implemented have already yielded results: the autumn price surge has been succeeded by a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalising. Authorities intend to maintain control over prices, preventing new spikes in fuel costs in the upcoming months.
Prospects for Investors and Energy Sector Participants
On one hand, the oversupply and hopes for a peaceful resolution of conflicts are easing prices and risks. On the other hand, the ongoing sanctions standoff and persistent geopolitical tension generate significant uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector must manage risks and maintain flexibility with particular diligence under these conditions.
Oil and gas and fuel companies are focusing on enhancing efficiency and diversifying sales channels amid the restructuring of trade flows, while also seeking new avenues for growth — from exploration to investments in renewable energy and storage infrastructure.
In the near term, key events will include the OPEC+ meeting in early December and potential progress in peace talks regarding Ukraine — the outcome of which will largely determine market sentiments on the brink of 2026. Experts recommend adhering to a diversified strategy: combining operational measures for business resilience with the implementation of long-term plans that take into account the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global energy sector.
