Detailed Overview of the Situation in the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector as of 29 November 2025: Oil at Record Lows, Asia Reducing Imports, Sanction Pressure, Price Dynamics, Gas Market, Energy Transition, Coal, Domestic Fuel Market.
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of 29 November 2025 are unfolding against a backdrop of mixed signals, attracting the attention of investors and market participants in the energy sector. Diplomatic efforts towards conflict resolution instil cautious optimism regarding the reduction of geopolitical tensions: potential peace initiatives are being discussed that could, in the long term, ease sanction pressures. At the same time, Western countries maintain a stringent sanctions regime, creating a challenging environment for traditional energy resource export flows.
Global oil prices remain relatively low due to oversupply and weakened demand. The North Sea Brent is hovering around $62–63 per barrel, while American WTI is around $58, close to the lowest levels seen over the past few years and significantly below last year's figures. The European gas market is entering winter in a balanced state, with underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in EU countries filled to approximately 75–80% of their total capacity by the end of November, providing a solid buffer. Exchange quotations for gas remain at relatively low levels. However, the factor of weather uncertainty persists: a sharp drop in temperatures could lead to increased price volatility towards the end of the season.
At the same time, the global energy transition is accelerating — many countries are setting records in electricity production from renewable energy sources (RES), although traditional resources remain essential for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into "green" energy, even as oil, gas, and coal continue to underpin global energy supplies. In Russia, following a recent autumn fuel crisis, emergency measures by the authorities have stabilised the domestic market for oil products ahead of winter: wholesale prices for petrol and diesel have turned downwards, eliminating shortages at petrol stations. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity segments of the energy sector as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
The global oil market is displaying sluggish price dynamics influenced by the fundamental factors of oversupply and slowing demand. Brent crude is trading in a narrow range around $62, while WTI is around $58, approximately 15% below last year's level and close to multi-year lows. The market is not receiving strong impulses for either growth or further decline, remaining in a state of relative equilibrium. The cumulative effect of current trends is leading to a small surplus of oil in the market.
- Increase in OPEC+ Production: The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the aggregate production quota for participants in the deal will rise by an additional 137,000 barrels per day. Although further increases in quotas are postponed at least until spring 2026 due to concerns about market saturation, the current rise in supply is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Slowdown in Demand: The growth rates of global oil consumption have significantly reduced. The IEA estimates the increase in demand in 2025 at less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC forecasts have become more restrained — around +1.2 million barrels per day. The weakening global economy and the effects of previous price spikes are limiting consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
Low prices are beginning to take their toll on high-cost producers. In the US shale sector, a reduction in drilling activity is noted, as the level of ~$60 per barrel is on the edge of profitability for several independent companies. Some analysts predict that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent could drop to as low as $50 per barrel by 2026. For now, however, oversupply and expectations of a softer geopolitical situation keep oil prices under pressure.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Stocks at Moderate Prices
In the gas market, the focus is on Europe's passage through the heating season. EU countries are approaching winter with storage facilities filled to a comfortable 75–80% by the end of November. This is only slightly below last autumn's record storage levels and provides a substantial buffer in case of prolonged cold spells. As a result, and due to supply diversification, European gas prices are being maintained at low levels: December TTF futures are trading around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1000 m³), a low not seen for over a year.
High stock levels have been made possible by record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This autumn, European companies have actively purchased LNG from the US, Qatar, and other countries, nearly compensating for the reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. Over 10 billion cubic meters of LNG arrived at European ports each month, enabling early filling of UGS facilities. An additional factor has been the mild weather: a warm autumn and the delayed onset of cold have restrained consumption and allowed gas from storage to be used more slowly than usual.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears stable: reserves are high, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This situation is beneficial for Europe's industry and power generation as winter begins, lowering costs and risks of disruptions. Nevertheless, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the event of abnormal cold, the balance of supply and demand could quickly shift, forcing accelerated withdrawals from storage and causing price spikes towards the end of the season.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives Inspire Hope, Sanction Confrontation Persists
In the second half of November, cautious hopes for geopolitical easing emerged. Reports suggest that the US has informally presented a peace plan regarding the conflict surrounding Ukraine, proposing a phased lifting of some sanctions against Russia upon fulfilment of agreements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to media reports, has received signals from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement, developed with the involvement of Moscow. The prospect of reaching a compromise is encouraging: de-escalation could potentially remove restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources and improve the business climate in commodity markets.
However, there is currently no real breakthrough; on the contrary, the West is intensifying sanction pressures. On 21 November, a new sanctions package from the US targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect. Major companies such as Rosneft and LUKOIL are now under restrictions; foreign counterparties have been instructed to completely cease cooperation with them by this date. In mid-November, the UK and the EU announced additional measures against Russian energy assets. London has given companies until 28 November to complete any transactions with these oil giants, after which cooperation must cease. The US administration has also threatened further harsh actions (including special tariffs against countries continuing to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, on the diplomatic front, there are no concrete shifts yet, and the sanction confrontation remains in full force. Nevertheless, the mere fact of ongoing dialogue between key players provides hope that the harshest restrictions may be eased in anticipation of negotiation outcomes. In the coming weeks, markets will closely monitor the contacts of world leaders. The success of peace initiatives will improve investor sentiment and soften sanction rhetoric, while their failure threatens a new escalation. The outcomes of these efforts will largely determine the long-term conditions for cooperation in energy and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Adapt to Sanction Pressure
The two largest Asian consumers of energy resources — India and China — are being forced to adapt to new restrictions in oil trade.
- India: Under pressure from Western sanctions, Indian refineries are significantly reducing purchases of Russian oil. In particular, Reliance Industries ceased imports of Urals grade oil by 20 November, having received additional price discounts in return. Increased bank scrutiny and the risk of secondary sanctions are prompting Indian refineries to seek alternative suppliers, despite Russia accounting for up to a third of India’s total oil imports in 2025.
- China: In China, state-owned oil companies have temporarily halted new deals for importing Russian oil due to fears of secondary sanctions. However, independent processors (so-called "teapots") have taken advantage of the situation and ramped up purchases to record volumes, sourcing feedstock at significant discounts. While China is also increasing its own oil and gas production, the country remains approximately 70% dependent on oil imports and 40% dependent on gas imports, remaining critically reliant on external supplies.
Energy Transition: RES Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
Across many countries, new records are being set in "green" generation. In the EU, the total production of electricity from solar and wind energy exceeded the output of coal and gas power plants for the first time at the end of 2024. In the US, the share of renewable sources exceeded 30% at the beginning of 2025. China is annually introducing record capacities of solar and wind power plants, solidifying its leadership in the RES sector. Investments in clean energy are also reaching new heights: the IEA estimates that global investments in energy transformation will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of this amount allocated to RES, modernization of power grids, and energy storage systems.
Nevertheless, energy systems still require traditional generation to ensure stability. The increase in the share of solar and wind presents balancing problems, as RES do not produce electricity constantly. Gas and, in some cases, coal plants are still needed to cover peak loads — for example, last winter some European countries had to temporarily increase coal generation during windless periods. Authorities in various countries are rapidly investing in large energy storage systems and "smart" grids, striving to enhance the reliability of energy systems.
Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will become the largest in global electricity generation, surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, traditional stations will remain essential as a backup and insurance. The energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources to ensure uninterrupted energy supply.
Coal: Steady Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global push towards decarbonisation, coal continues to play a key role in the energy balance. This autumn, coal-fired power generation in China has risen to record levels, although domestic coal production has seen a slight decline. Consequently, coal imports into China have surged to multi-year highs, lifting global prices from dismal summer lows. Other major consumers, such as India, continue to derive a significant portion of their electricity from coal, and many developing countries are still constructing new coal-fired power plants. Coal exporters have ramped up shipments, capitalising on high demand for the commodity.
Following the upheavals of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high while prices are moderate. Even with the implementation of climate strategies, coal will remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts expect that in the next decade coal generation, particularly in Asia, will maintain a substantial role despite ongoing efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalisation After Autumn Crisis
In the domestic fuel market, Russia has reached stabilisation following the acute crisis in early autumn. At the end of summer, wholesale prices for petrol and diesel soared to record heights, causing local fuel shortages at some petrol stations. The government had to intervene: temporary export restrictions on oil products were introduced at the end of September, while refineries (NPPs) increased fuel production after completing scheduled maintenance. By mid-October, these measures had succeeded in reversing the price spike.
The decrease in wholesale prices has continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for petrol Ai-92 had dropped by approximately 4%, while Ai-95 decreased by 3% and diesel fell by about 3% as well. The stabilisation of the wholesale market is beginning to reflect in retail prices: consumer prices for petrol have been slowly declining for the third consecutive week (albeit only by a few kopecks). On 20 November, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at guaranteeing priority supply of oil products to the domestic market.
Overall, the measures taken have already borne fruit: the autumn price spike has been succeeded by a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalising. Authorities aim to maintain price control, preventing new spikes in fuel costs in the coming months.
Outlook for Investors and Energy Sector Participants
On one hand, oversupply and hopes for a peaceful resolution of conflicts are easing prices and risks. On the other hand, ongoing sanction confrontations and sustained geopolitical tensions generate considerable uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector need to manage risks judiciously and maintain flexibility under these circumstances.
Oil, gas, and fuel companies are now focusing on enhancing efficiency and diversifying sales channels amidst the restructuring of trade flows. Simultaneously, they are seeking new growth opportunities — from exploring new fields to investing in renewable energy and storage infrastructure. Key events in the near future will include the OPEC+ meeting in early December and possible progress in peace talks surrounding Ukraine: the outcomes of these will largely shape market sentiment as we approach 2026.
Experts recommend adhering to a diversified strategy. It is prudent to combine operational measures for business resilience with the execution of long-term plans that account for the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global energy sector. Such an approach will help companies and investors navigate current challenges and seize opportunities in the dynamically changing energy market.
