Current News in Oil, Gas and Energy as of 22 February 2026: Expectations for OPEC+, Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, the LNG Market, Refinery Maintenance Season, Oil Products, Electricity, Renewables, and Coal. A Global Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
The global energy sector enters the final week of February against a backdrop of shifting investor focus: from 'winter deficits' to assessing the balance of supply and demand in the second quarter. Oil and gas remain sensitive to geopolitical and logistical developments, while the oil products and refinery segment is currently in a maintenance season, impacting spreads and margins. In the electricity and renewables sectors, the discourse intensifies around energy costs for industry and the acceleration of investments in networks and system flexibility.
Oil: The Market is Pricing in a Scenario of Higher Supply in Q2
The key intrigue of the week is the expectation that the OPEC+ alliance may transition from cautious barrel retention to a gradual increase in production as early as spring, should demand be corroborated and oil prices maintain stability. For the global balance, this is more significant than short-term price fluctuations: the market is beginning to preassess the trajectory of inventories and the risk premium.
Concurrently, discussions are intensifying regarding the pace at which production outside of OPEC+ will grow in 2026 and the extent to which deal participants can adhere to quotas, particularly in light of budgetary requirements and market share competition.
OPEC+ and Geopolitics: A Flexible Strategy Instead of 'Hard' Promises
Signals from the deal participants converge on one logic: decisions regarding production will depend on 'market conditions' and are subject to adaptation as demand and risks change. For investors, this means an increased role for 'event volatility'—reactions to statements, meetings and informal benchmarks regarding target production levels.
The most significant risk factors for oil and oil products at present include:
- Geopolitical premium (tensions in the Middle East, risks of sanctions and retaliatory measures);
- Sanctions and insurance infrastructure (freight costs, tanker availability, supply routes);
- Discipline within OPEC+ and the distribution of 'space' for increasing production between leaders and constrained countries.
Under these conditions, the oil market is increasingly assessing not a 'single figure' for production, but a range and speed of supply changes—which directly impacts the futures curve and hedging strategies.
Gas and LNG: Europe Maintains Resilience but Remains Sensitive to Supplies
The European gas market in mid-February demonstrated stability: prices at major hubs held around winter levels (approximately €32/MWh), with key drivers being the weather and LNG flows. Regulators and governments, evaluating the heating season, are increasingly emphasising 'structural resilience'—the diversification of imports and inventory management—rather than emergency measures.
At the national level, two parallel trends are evident:
- Stabilisation and risk management. In the largest EU economies, there is an emphasis on the sufficiency of gas supplies for the remainder of the winter at current LNG and import flows.
- Energy cost policy. Some countries are enhancing support for consumers and businesses to mitigate the impact of high electricity and gas prices on industries.
For the global LNG market, important projects that expand supply and flexibility are crucial. A distinctive aspect is the development of floating liquefied gas (FLNG) facilities: these 'floating plants' accelerate the rollout of production in countries with limited terrestrial infrastructure and improve geographical diversification of LNG supplies.
Refineries and Oil Products: Maintenance Season Supports the Market, But Diesel is 'Cooling Off'
The refinery segment enters the traditional period of scheduled maintenance in the Northern Hemisphere. This simultaneously:
- limits crude oil processing and supports local oil product balances;
- creates volatility in refining margins and 'cracks' for gasoline and diesel;
- increases the importance of logistics — transfers between regions, tanker and terminal availability.
In recent weeks, there has been a decline in values for the diesel direction (gasoil/diesel) and weakening refining margins in certain markets, which is significant for public refiners and integrated oil companies. As spring approaches, the market begins to focus on gasoline balances: in 2026, a more 'even' supply is anticipated, which may weigh on gasoline cracks as refineries emerge from maintenance activities.
The practical takeaway: given the current demand structure, oil products can behave in different directions — making it critical for investors to distinguish between the story of 'oil as a commodity' and the narrative of 'refinery margins and product spreads'.
Coal: Asia Sets the Tone, but Competition with Gas and Renewables is Increasing
Coal remains a significant part of the energy balance in Asia, particularly in electricity generation and metallurgy. In 2026, coal demand increasingly depends on:
- the cost of gas and LNG availability in the region;
- the pace of renewable energy integration and network constraints;
- the export policies of major suppliers and logistics (ports and freight).
For global energy players, this means that coal assets maintain cash flow under favourable price conditions, but their long-term valuation increasingly hinges on regulatory risks and capital costs.
Electricity: The Competitiveness of Industry Comes to the Fore
In the European electricity and gas market, there is an increasing political demand to reduce wholesale prices and narrow spreads between countries. This is reflected in support packages and attempts to 'smooth' price peaks for households and businesses.
For investors in electricity, key themes on the horizon for 2026 include:
- Networks and flexibility (storage, demand management, flexible generation);
- Reliability (reserve capacities and capacity market mechanisms);
- Capital costs and tariff regulation affecting project returns.
Infrastructure networks and system balancing are increasingly becoming the 'bottleneck' for growing the share of renewables.
Renewables and the Energy Transition: Investments Shift to Infrastructure and Supply Chains
Renewables remain a structural driver; however, the market is becoming more pragmatic: not only new solar and wind stations come to the forefront but also network projects, localisation of components, access to critical materials, and acceleration of permitting processes. For the global energy transition, this signifies a shift to the phase of 'industrialisation': more capital-intensive projects, longer timelines, and heightened attention to contract structures (PPAs, indexing, guarantees).
In 2026, investors in renewables are increasingly evaluating:
- the quality of the regulatory framework and predictability of returns;
- the ability of projects to withstand fluctuations in rates and equipment costs;
- the presence of grid connectivity and storage infrastructure.
What Matters for Investors and Energy Market Participants: A Checklist for the Week
As a new week approaches, investors, traders, and corporate buyers in the oil and gas and energy sectors should keep the following signals in focus:
- OPEC+ rhetoric regarding Q2: any hints about the pace of barrel returns are quickly reflected in oil and currency-commodity assets.
- Gas in Europe and LNG: weather dynamics, inventory levels, and the resilience of import flows determine the volatility of TTF and electricity prices.
- Refining margins and oil products: during the maintenance season, the key focus will be on diesel and gasoline cracks, as well as regional supply imbalances.
- Electricity and renewables: decisions regarding price support and investment in networks impact valuations of generating and network companies.
- Coal: monitor demand from Asia and competition with gas, especially in light of changing LNG prices.
The baseline scenario for the end of February: the energy market remains 'event-driven'. Oil is balancing between expectations of increased supply and a geopolitical premium, while gas and LNG are influenced by seasonal weather and infrastructure resilience, and oil products and refineries are affected by maintenance and a revaluation of spreads. In this environment, advantages accrue to risk-disciplined strategies: diversification across segments (oil, gas, electricity, renewables), control of exposure to product cracks, and careful management of delivery timelines.
