Oil and Gas News and Energy, Saturday, 14 February 2026: OPEC+ Appears to Favour Production Increase from April, Oil Prices Under Pressure
As of 13 February 2026 (exact time of report not specified), the global energy market has shifted into a paradigm of recalibrating balance: expectations for a revival of OPEC+ production from April have intensified pressure on oil prices, while EIA statistics indicated a significant increase in oil inventories in the US. Concurrently, the IEA's February report maintains a cautious tone regarding demand and warns of the risk of oversupply in 2026. For investors in oil and gas and energy, this shifts focus towards refining margin stability, supply chains for petroleum products, and the quality of investments in electricity and renewable energy sources (RES).
- Oil: Brent at approximately $67/barrel, WTI at around $62–63/barrel; the market is pricing in higher supply for the second quarter.
- Gas: TTF at about €32/MWh; Europe enters the storage injection season with low inventories (exact status as of 13 February not specified).
- Electricity: for supply on 14 February, several zones are experiencing triple-digit price levels — grid investments and connection regulations become key drivers for RES.
Oil Market: OPEC+, Demand and Expectations for 2026
The key news item for oil today is the discussion within OPEC+ regarding the potential return to production increases from April 2026 after a pause in January-March. The market interprets this as an effort to preemptively "lock in" market share ahead of summer demand, even if the second quarter balance appears softer than the seasonal norm. Additionally, the IEA assesses global demand growth for 2026 at roughly 850,000 barrels/day, with global supply capable of increasing by approximately 2.4 million barrels/day in 2026. This amplifies price sensitivity to actual export flows and compliance with quotas, which are critical for hedging strategies and investment in production.
For upstream investments, this implies higher cost and cash flow stability requirements. "Long-term" projects are scrutinised more strictly, with the market increasingly favouring companies with strong free cash flow and predictable capital policies. Geopolitics (Middle East) remains a source of volatility, although its contribution to prices as of 13 February 2026 remains unspecified.
Prices and Indicators as of 13–14 February
- Brent Oil: approximately $67/barrel.
- WTI Oil: around $62–63/barrel.
- TTF Gas (Europe): about €32/MWh.
- Henry Hub Gas (USA): approximately $3.17/MMBtu.
- JKM LNG (Asia): around $11/MMBtu.
- Newcastle Coal: approximately $115–116/tonne.
- Electricity (Nord Pool, supply on 14 February): Germany ~€103.5/MWh; Netherlands ~€95/MWh; France ~€34/MWh; other zones — unspecified.
- EU ETS (carbon): about €73/tonne CO₂ as of 12 February; status as of 13 February — unspecified.
USA: Inventories, Refineries, and Signals for Petroleum Products
American EIA statistics have set the tone for discussions on the "physical" reality of the market. For the week ending 6 February, commercial oil inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels. Refineries processed approximately 16.0 million barrels/day, with capacity use about 89%. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels.
For the petroleum products segment, this indicates a diverging balance: while oil inventories appear comfortable, the market may experience localised tightening in diesel and jet fuel, especially if seasonal weather boosts demand. This is significant for investors, as refinery margins and US petroleum exports to Europe often act as a "buffer" for the global fuel market.
Refineries and Petroleum Products: Operational Events and Market Impact
Operational risks in refining are once again in focus. In Russia, sources report that the Volgograd Refinery has halted operations following a fire triggered by a drone attack; a major primary processing unit has been damaged. While this impacts the global oil market indirectly, such events increase the risk premium for regional petroleum product balances (particularly diesel) and could enhance demand for imports, supporting margins for European refineries.
In Europe, sanctions compliance is altering even operational models: TotalEnergies has assumed full operational control of the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands while retaining a stake for Lukoil, centralising the procurement of raw materials and the distribution of petroleum products within a single management structure. In Africa, a significant signal from Nigeria has emerged: Dangote has restarted operations at a large atmospheric distillation unit, with a test launch of the gasoline block expected in the coming days – this potentially reinforces domestic petroleum product substitution in the region and alters regional oil demand.
Gas and LNG: Europe Between Storage and New Supply Regimes
The European gas market remains sensitive to inventories and competition for LNG. TTF holds around €32/MWh, however, for investors, the trajectory of storage injections is more critical: public estimates suggest that the filling level of European storages is around 35–36% (exact figure as of 13 February 2026 — unspecified). In addition, the EU has approved a phased ban on Russian gas imports by the end of 2027 (LNG — sooner), solidifying Europe's structural dependence on the global LNG market and enhancing the value of flexible deliveries.
In Asia, the JKM marker is around $11/MMBtu, indicating relatively calm demand, but supply is contingent upon the timelines of megaprojects. Reports indicate a potential delay in the launch of the first phase of Qatar's LNG capacity expansion to the end of 2026. For the European and Asian markets, this supports a premium for "ready molecules" and increases the significance of investments in regasification, gas infrastructure, and flexibility in electricity generation.
Electricity and RES: Prices, Grids, and Investment Cycle
On 14 February, electricity prices in Europe, according to Nord Pool, remain heterogeneous: Germany around €103.5/MWh, Netherlands about €95/MWh, France approximately €34/MWh. The disparity is explained by the generation structure (nuclear, gas, RES), availability of inter-system connections, and grid constraints. The investment cycle in the energy sector is increasingly focused on infrastructure: in the UK, subsidy contracts for a record amount of solar generation have been granted, while the dispute between London and Paris over funding additional interconnector cables underscores that grid projects are becoming a political factor influencing the speed of RES deployment.
On the continent, the "cost of the grid" is intensifying: in Germany, a mechanism is being discussed whereby RES developers will bear a greater share of the costs of connecting to electricity networks. For RES projects, this may imply a reassessment of IRR and a more selective site selection. France is betting on the growth of decarbonised electricity (nuclear and RES) and on stimulating electrification of demand, thereby increasing structural demand for investments in grids and flexibility (storage, demand management).
Coal: Price Benchmark, Asia and Carbon Risks
Coal remains a "hedging" resource in the global energy landscape, predominantly in Asia. Newcastle holds around $115–116/tonne, retaining significance for marginal electricity generation and portfolio hedging. In Europe, coal's role is determined by the cost of CO₂ and the energy system's regime: sharp movements in EU ETS prices temporarily alter the economics of coal generation, but do not eliminate long-term funding constraints on coal assets and projects.
Regulation, Sanctions, and Forecast
Regulatory and sanction risks continue to be systemic for the energy sector. In Europe, volatility in CO₂ prices elevates uncertainty for investments in decarbonisation, while changes in sanction regimes in the oil and gas sector can swiftly redistribute oil flows and raw materials for refineries (including Venezuelan sources). For the coming days, the baseline scenario for oil is consolidation within the $65–70 Brent range, dominated by the supply narrative from OPEC+.
Scenarios for the Coming Days:
- Base: Oil within range, gas under the influence of weather and storage dynamics, electricity influenced by grid constraints.
- Upside Risk: Infrastructure failures and tightening sanctions elevate risk premium for oil and diesel, supporting refinery margins and petroleum product prices.
- Downside Risk: Acceleration of production growth expectations and increased availability of heavy oil apply downward pressure on oil and upstream investments.
Checklist for Market Participants in the Energy Sector:
- OPEC+ communications leading up to the meeting on 1 March;
- Weekly EIA data on oil, gas and petroleum products;
- Dynamics of European storage and competitive situation in the LNG market (as of 13 February — unspecified);
- News regarding refineries (maintenance, incidents) and supply chain for petroleum products;
- Decisions regarding grids, interconnectors, and carbon affecting electricity and RES.
