Current News in Oil and Gas and Energy as of 18 November 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, EU Sanctions, Production, Exports, Fuel Market, Power Generation, Renewables and Coal Sector. Analytics for Investors and Energy Companies.
By mid-November 2025, global energy markets are exhibiting a mixed dynamic. Oil prices are under pressure due to oversupply: Brent crude remains around $64 per barrel (WTI hovering around $60), close to the lows of recent months. The increase in production by OPEC+ countries and partners is outpacing moderate demand, creating a surplus of oil in the market. Simultaneously, the European gas market is experiencing a price lull—exchange prices for gas have dropped to one-and-a-half-year lows (around $380 per thousand cubic metres) due to full storage facilities and mild weather conditions. Within Russia, unprecedented measures have been taken to stabilise the domestic fuel market following a summer spike in petrol prices. At the geopolitical level, sanction pressures are intensifying: the European Union and the USA are discussing new restrictions on oil and gas exports, although their enforcement faces challenges. This review covers the latest news and trends in the oil and gas markets, the situation in Russia's fuel and energy complex, as well as developments in the coal, electricity generation, and renewable energy sectors.
Oil Market
Bearish sentiments prevail in the oil market this November. Following a brief increase last week, prices are declining again: Brent is holding in the range of $60–65 per barrel, reflecting weak demand. Investors note that global oil supplies have increased significantly more than demand: since the beginning of the year, total supply has grown by approximately 6 million barrels per day (mainly due to increased production from OPEC+ nations), while demand growth has been much more modest. Consequently, global fuel inventories are high, and the market is facing a surplus, putting pressure on prices.
Adding to the uncertainty are risks surrounding Russian oil exports. At the end of last week, a drone attack temporarily disrupted operations at an oil terminal in Novorossiysk, causing a brief spike in prices; however, the rapid recovery of operations alleviated tensions—with Brent returning to a downward trend around $64 by the start of the new week. Thus, even geopolitical incidents currently have only a short-term impact on the market, yielding to fundamental factors' influence. Market participants are also evaluating the sanctions' consequences: despite tightening Western restrictions, supplies from Russia remain stable due to a pivot towards alternative channels and discounts for buyers.
- OPEC+ Policy: Exporters from the OPEC+ alliance remain committed to plans for a gradual recovery in production, which they have been implementing since the beginning of the year. By the end of 2025, countries have fully returned a significant portion of previously voluntarily restrained volumes to the market. Recently, OPEC+ representatives stated that they maintain the freedom for further voluntary adjustments in production in 2026—meaning they are prepared to reduce supply again if the market situation deteriorates (for example, if prices fall below acceptable levels). However, key producers are indicating they will not rush into new production cuts as long as prices remain above critical thresholds ($50 and above).
- Demand and Inventories: Weak macroeconomic conditions are restraining oil consumption growth. An economic slowdown in China, high interest rates in the USA and Europe, and other factors are limiting global raw material demand. Nevertheless, in some segments, demand remains resilient: the winter heating season is beginning, supporting demand for oil products, while the global aviation sector and road transport are demonstrating gradual growth. Previously record-high summer demand (tourism, road transport) prevented prices from falling even lower. However, due to the accumulation of inventories in key regions (USA, China, Europe) and increased exports from some supplier countries (including Iran and Venezuela), price pressure persists.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: Global risks remain, but their impact on prices is limited. Armed conflicts and tensions in the Middle East create a moderate premium in prices, yet significant supply disruptions do not occur. Western countries are continuing to intensify sanction pressures on the Russian oil sector: the European Union approved last summer a ban on the import of oil products produced from Russian oil in third countries (with some exceptions) that will come into effect in February 2026, effectively closing off avenues for supply to Europe. In addition, new measures are under discussion—up to imposing restrictions against any refineries that have purchased Russian oil in recent months, although the implementation of such ideas faces technical difficulties and resistance from some businesses. Meanwhile, the US administration has taken a harder line: President Donald Trump has expressed readiness to support a bill imposing sanctions against countries trading with Russia and threatened similar measures against Iran. While such radical steps have yet to be executed, the rhetoric itself heightens long-term uncertainty for oil exporters. Nevertheless, for the time being, Russian oil continues to find its way to global markets—analysts note that buyers in Asia and the Middle East confidently absorb volumes redirected from Europe, even if this requires additional discounts.
Natural Gas Market
The natural gas market remains relatively calm this autumn. In Europe, gas prices have dropped to minimal levels over the past ~18 months: approximately $370–380 per thousand cubic metres according to the TTF index, significantly lower than the peaks of last winter. This trend is due to a comfortable supply and moderate demand. Gas storage facilities in European countries were filled record-early and remain approximately 90% full as of mid-November, providing a safety cushion for the beginning of the heating season. Mild weather in Europe during the first half of autumn and an increase in generation from renewable energy sources have also reduced the need for gas withdrawals from reserves, allowing market stability to be maintained.
Stability has also been supported by steady LNG import supplies. European importers continue to actively receive liquefied gas from various sources—from the USA and Qatar to Africa and Asia. New liquefaction projects in the USA and the Middle East are expanding global capacities, creating a surplus of supply. Alternative pipeline supplies are also maintained: Norway, Algeria, and other Northern African countries steadily export gas to the EU, compensating for the almost complete cessation of direct imports from Russia. Transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is now minimal, while supplies through the southern route (via Turkey and the Balkans) are limited in volume and only meet the needs of select Eastern European nations. Collectively, the diversification of sources has allowed Europe to get through last winter without fuel shortages, and currently, the market looks ahead to winter 2025/26 with relative confidence.
- European Balance: Thanks to early accumulation of inventories and reduced consumption, the European gas balance appears robust. According to industry monitoring data, by the start of the heating season, underground gas storage in the EU was filled to nearly 95%, above long-term averages. Gas consumption in Europe, which decreased in 2022–2023 due to the energy crisis, stabilised and even showed slight growth in 2025 (about 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year due to industrial recovery and hot weather). However, the current level of demand remains below pre-crisis levels—enterprises are implementing energy efficiency measures, and households are conserving energy due to previously high prices. This implies that even with moderate demand growth, current inventories should suffice to meet peak winter needs.
- Global LNG: The liquefied natural gas market continues to play a key role in meeting the needs of Europe and Asia. New LNG export capacities are being introduced in 2025—in both the USA and Persian Gulf countries—which increases the volume of fuel available on the market. Supplier competition is intensifying, and spot LNG prices remain relatively low for this season. Asian markets are currently demonstrating balanced demand: Northeast Asia's LNG reserves have also been accumulated, and the absence of extreme cold at the start of winter prevents price spikes. This enables the diversion of additional tankers to Europe if necessary. At the same time, major consumers like China are entering into long-term contracts for LNG supply, laying the foundation for price stability in the future.
- Russia and New Routes: The Russian gas sector continues to reorient its exports eastward. Pipeline gas supplies to Europe have dropped to historic lows (in effect remaining only through the remaining Ukrainian corridor and the "Turkish Stream" for specific countries), while exports to Asia are increasing. In 2025, Gazprom ramped up throughput via the "Power of Siberia" pipeline to China to record levels, nearing design capacity to meet the growing demand from Chinese consumers. Concurrently, Russia is developing its LNG projects on the Arctic shelf: last year, the first phase of the Arctic LNG-2 plant commenced operation, and in 2025 gradual commissioning of new capacities is underway, primarily targeting Southeast Asian markets. These steps aim to compensate for the lost European market and ensure that extracting companies remain productive. Although transporting gas to new regions involves logistical and pricing challenges, Russia is strengthening its presence in the Asian direction through long-term contracts with China, India, and other importers.
Domestic Fuel Market in Russia
After the summer crisis in the domestic petroleum product market, the situation is gradually normalising. Recall that at the end of summer, prices for automotive fuel in Russia sharply increased, reaching record levels due to supply shortages and rising export costs owing to a weak rouble. To stabilise the situation, the government was compelled to take stringent emergency measures: since the end of July, a temporary ban on the export of gasoline and some diesel fuel supplies was imposed to redirect maximum volumes to the domestic market and saturate filling stations. Initially, the restrictions affected traders and small refineries, but were subsequently expanded—the ban on gasoline exports was extended even to major producers, and diesel fuel exports outside the Eurasian Union were restricted for everyone except the direct oil companies, subject to internal supply control.
By mid-November, it can be noted that the measures taken have had a tangible effect. Wholesale fuel prices at the St. Petersburg exchange have significantly retreated from the peak values of September, and retail prices at filling stations have stopped rising. According to Rosstat, average gasoline prices in Russia even decreased slightly in the first half of November—the first decline in over a year. In the regions most affected in the summer (for example, in the southern jurisdictions and Crimea), supply normalisation has occurred: interruptions with AI-95 and AI-92 gasoline have been eliminated, and stocks are sufficient for current consumption. The government has extended the temporary ban on gasoline exports until 31 December 2025, to reinforce market stability during the autumn-winter period. At the same time, authorities are developing long-term mechanisms to prevent fuel crises—from adjusting the damping formula and excise tax policy to incentivising refiners to increase fuel production during the off-season.
- Anti-crisis Measures: To overcome the fuel crisis, Russian authorities have employed a number of tools. A complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline has been instituted, and the export of diesel fuel and fuel oil has been significantly restricted. Oil companies are mandated to first meet the needs of the domestic market. Additionally, minimum sales requirements for fuel on the exchange have been increased to ensure that small wholesalers and independent filling stations have access to resources. These measures have been accompanied by agreements with major refineries to ramp up crude processing and deliveries to the domestic market, particularly in remote regions with fuel shortages.
- Market Stabilisation: By October-November, the trend has shifted—the price rise has stopped. Exchange prices for the "Regular-92" and "Premium-95" gasoline grades have decreased by tens of percent from September's highs. Following wholesale prices, prices at filling stations began to stabilise: in several regions, reductions in gasoline prices of 10–30 kopecks per litre have been recorded. Chains of filling stations report sufficient fuel reserves, the elimination of queues, and a return of demand to normal levels. Thus, the domestic petroleum product market has entered winter in a balanced state, without signs of shortage.
- Prospects and Regulation: The unprecedented export restrictions on fuel are temporary. The official export ban on gasoline is in effect until the end of 2025, and the government will decide whether to extend or lift it based on the situation. Concurrently, long-term measures are being considered: the introduction of an export duties regime that automatically deters exports during spikes in global prices; improvements to the damping mechanism for compensations for oil workers, making it more profitable for them to supply to the domestic market; and the increase of reserve fuel stocks at state oil depots. Also, there is a focus on modernising refineries and logistics for supplies to remote regions to prevent local disruptions. Participants in the energy sector expect that a combination of market incentives and state control will prevent a recurrence of the crisis next spring and summer.
Government Policy and Cooperation
Russian authorities continue to implement a long-term energy strategy, adapting the fuel and energy complex to the new realities of sanction pressures and global energy transition. In 2025, the focus is on supporting the oil and gas sector with investment incentives and expanding cooperation with friendly countries. Despite external restrictions, the state strives to ensure the sustainable development of the sector and access to new sales markets.
- Tax Incentives for the Sector: The Russian government is currently finalising a package of measures aimed at relieving the tax burden on oil and gas companies and stimulating the development of new fields. Among the measures under discussion are an expansion of the application of the mineral extraction tax (MET) for new oil and gas production projects, an extension of the benefits on the mineral extraction tax for hard-to-reach and depleted fields, and a temporary reduction of export duties on raw materials for projects in priority regions. It is expected that these concessions will come into force in 2026 and help companies in the sector maintain investments even amidst sanctions and limited access to foreign capital.
- Diversification and New Projects: One of the strategic objectives is the diversification of the energy sector. The state is stimulating the development of new segments—from liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and petrochemical manufacturing to hydrogen energy and the production of renewable energy equipment. In 2025, financing for infrastructure to enhance LNG exports (construction of terminals in the Far East and North) continued, as well as projects for extracting rare earth metals and components necessary for renewable energy technologies. Concurrently, Russia is investing in its extraction and processing technologies to reduce dependence on imported equipment and services. This reorientation is aimed at enhancing the resilience of the fuel and energy complex in the face of external restrictions and increasing competitiveness in the global energy resources market.
- International Cooperation: Amidst limited interaction with Europe, Russia is actively strengthening energy ties with partners in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Over the course of the year, new agreements for the supply of oil and oil products have been concluded with several countries: India continues to increase its purchases of Russian oil on a long-term basis, China is raising gas imports and participating in financing large projects (for example, in the construction of petrochemical complexes on Russian territory), and Gulf states are investing in joint extraction projects. Furthermore, Russia and OPEC+ maintain close coordination: regular consultations with Saudi Arabia and other participants allow for the coordinated management of the oil market. These partnerships help the Russian fuel and energy complex redirect energy resource flows, seek new market opportunities, and compensate for the lost income from the European market.
- Sanction Risks: Despite the measures taken, external risks have not dissipated. As previously noted, Western countries are considering the possibility of further tightening sanctions on Russian energy exports. While the USA and EU are acting cautiously for fear of undermining the global energy resources market with abrupt moves—experts estimate that Washington is unlikely to impose direct sanctions against Russian LNG at least until the end of the decade, to avoid gas shortages for its allies—the rhetoric from certain politicians remains hardline, creating uncertainty. Russian companies must account for scenarios regarding the potential introduction of so-called secondary sanctions targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas in third countries. Such developments would necessitate even deeper reorganisation of export logistics and could affect new long-term contracts. In this environment, the Russian leadership is focused on the accelerated development of its own infrastructure (tanker fleet, insurance, service provision) to ensure uninterrupted exports even in the event of further complications in the external environment.
Coal Sector
The year 2025 is proving challenging for the Russian coal industry. Following the price boom of 2021–2022, the global coal market has entered a phase of decline, and this year, prices have remained comparatively low, sharply limiting the profitability of exports for Russian companies. Intense competition in the Asian direction and sanction restrictions in Europe have led to significant financial difficulties for many of Russia's coal mining enterprises. Many mines are reducing production, and a number of companies are on the brink of halting operations. According to the Ministry of Energy, in 2024, the total losses of coal companies in Russia exceeded 110 billion roubles, and this negative trend continues into the current year.
Nevertheless, the industry is trying to adapt to new conditions, reorienting supplies and reducing costs. Russian coal exports are gradually shifting towards Asia, where there remains a certain demand for competitively priced raw materials from Russia. Although the European market is effectively closed to Russia, domestic coal producers are actively working with buyers in China, India, Turkey, and other countries. The situation in the global market slightly improved for suppliers by the end of the year: the approach of winter and reduced production in specific regions (for example, in China due to safety and environmental measures) has led to a slight rise in thermal coal prices. However, the current price level is still insufficient for guaranteed profitability for most Russian projects, particularly given the rising logistics costs.
- Production Cuts: In Russia's largest coal mining region—Kuzbass—production continues to decline. In the first nine months of 2025, coal production in the Kemerovo region is estimated to have decreased by approximately 5–6% compared to the same period last year. Many companies have been forced to suspend unprofitable operations, particularly in remote open pits and mines with high costs. Export shipments are also fluctuating: as of October 2025, Russian coal exports fell by 1% compared to the previous month, to 17.3 million tonnes, although the total from the beginning of the year remains slightly above last year's level (+3.6% over 10 months, thanks to high shipments earlier in the year). The reduced demand for thermal coal in traditional markets forces Russian producers to keep production at low levels and await more favourable conditions.
- Coking Coal: The metallurgical (coking) coal segment is also facing difficulties. The global steel industry is showing weak dynamics, especially in China, limiting the demand for coke and its production raw materials. The export of Russian coking coal by sea has decreased, and by autumn, shipment volumes through southern ports have fallen to multi-year lows. According to analysts' estimates, under current prices, more than 20% of Russian coking coal producers are operating at a loss, and even the largest players in the industry are balancing near the breakeven point. This forces companies to revise investment programs, postpone the launch of new mines, and focus on the most efficient assets.
- Asian Markets and New Opportunities: Despite the difficulties, Russian coal is finding buyers in Asia, where its competitive price is attracting some consumers. In particular, in 2025, coal shipments to India increased significantly: in October, Russian coal exports to India rose by 43% compared to September and doubled compared to October 2024. Indian energy and metallurgical companies took advantage of lower prices to procure additional volumes that other players had declined. Furthermore, some unconventional buyers have shown interest—for instance, Taiwan began trial purchases of Russian thermal coal through its far eastern ports this year, attracted by stable supplies and discounts. China remains the largest Asian market: after a slight reduction in imports this autumn due to high domestic inventories, demand in northern provinces of China is again growing with the onset of cold weather, and market participants expect an increase in Russian coal purchases from China in November-December. Meanwhile, South Korea has reduced imports from Russia, returning to traditional suppliers (Australia), highlighting the competitive nature of the market struggle for market share. Overall, the industry's prospects are linked to two factors: firstly, the restoration of price balance through the reduction of unprofitable capacities (closure or temporary suspension of loss-making mines); and secondly, increased demand in Asia, which could gradually push prices upwards. The Russian government, for its part, has tasked the development of support measures for coal miners—from subsidising transport tariffs to preferential lending—to mitigate the socio-economic consequences of the downturn in the sector.
Electricity Generation
Russia's electricity sector in 2025 has faced atypical loads but demonstrated resilience. Anomalously hot summer weather led to historic peaks in electricity consumption in several regions: widespread use of air conditioning and cooling equipment pushed the load on networks to record levels. On 14 July, the Unified Energy System of the South recorded an absolute summer power consumption maximum of 21,219 MW, surpassing the previous year’s record. Similar records were noted in other systems—all territorial energy systems set new summer maximums. Additionally, in the winter of 2024/25, the country also experienced unprecedented loads, exceeding summer figures, indicating an overall increase in energy consumption as the economy recovers alongside extreme weather events.
Despite the increased loads, the energy system successfully coped with the challenges. Generating companies and dispatch services activated necessary reserve capacities: hydropower plants increased generation during peak consumption hours, gas and coal-fired power plants were swiftly ramped up to meet demand, and electricity transmission networks functioned without significant disruptions. Even on the hottest summer days, systemic outages were avoided—resilience proved sufficient, confirming the reliability of Russia's Unified Energy System. In regions with particularly high loads (for example, the North Caucasus and Southern Russia), backup mobile gas turbine units were deployed, and energy transfers from neighbouring regions were tapped. All of this ensured uninterrupted energy supply for consumers.
- Demand Records: The summer months of 2025 saw numerous new records in energy consumption. Heat waves in July raised daily electricity consumption to unprecedented levels in many jurisdictions. Besides the southern regions, a significant load increase was recorded in Siberia and central areas—heightened use of air conditioning, cooling systems in businesses, and increased industrial activity led to peak loads exceeding last year's levels by 5–7%. The System Operator of the Unified Energy System reported dozens of new historical maximums established across the country from June to August. Overall electricity consumption in Russia over the 10 months of 2025 rose by approximately 2% year-on-year, reflecting economic recovery and an increase in the electrical intensity of certain sectors.
- Network Reliability: The Russian energy system demonstrates a high level of reliability even under extreme loads. During summer, energy companies successfully managed to pass through peaks by redistributing power flows and activating reserves. For the autumn-winter period of 2025/26, thorough preparations have been made: key power plant units have undergone maintenance, additional fuel reserves (coal, gas) at thermal power plants have been formed, and emergency transfer regimes between energy systems have been practised. The Ministry of Energy predicts that even in the case of abnormal frosts in winter, generation and network capacities will suffice to meet demand without implementing load shedding schedules. Special attention is given to southern regions, where further growth in winter consumption is anticipated—modernisation of networks and the installation of new substations in Krasnodar Krai, Dagestan, and Crimea should prevent local outages. Overall, industry experts note that lessons from previous years have been heeded: dispatch discipline has been strengthened and capacity manoeuvring capabilities have been expanded, providing an optimistic outlook for the upcoming winter peak.
Renewable Energy
The renewable energy (RE) sector worldwide continues its dramatic growth, reflecting the acceleration of the global energy transition. The year 2025 has witnessed another record in the commissioning of new capacities: many countries are launching enormous solar and wind power plants, with investment in clean energy reaching historical highs. According to the International Energy Agency, global capital investment in renewable energy in 2025 has for the first time surpassed investment in oil extraction: approximately $580 billion compared to $540 billion, respectively. This indicates a shift in priorities—an increasing number of countries and companies are betting on solar, wind, and other low-carbon technologies. China maintains its leadership in this sector: the total installed capacity of RE facilities in China has now exceeded the capacities of fossil fuel power stations, underscoring the scale of change. The European Union is also increasing the share of "green" generation—by the end of the year, over 40% of electricity in the EU was produced from renewable sources (hydropower, wind, solar, and biomass). These achievements are reducing demand for hydrocarbons in the energy sector and gradually lowering the carbon intensity of the global economy.
In Russia, renewable energy is developing more modestly but steadily. The initial effect of high oil and gas prices last year provided an additional impetus for RE projects: both the state and business recognised the importance of diversification. By early 2025, the total capacity of renewable generators (excluding large hydropower plants) reached ~6.6 GW compared to 6.5 GW a year earlier. Throughout this year, new solar and wind farms have been commissioned in various regions—from the Astrakhan region and Stavropol Krai (wind farms) to the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), where small solar power plants for remote settlements became operational. As a result, by the end of 2025, it is expected that the total installed capacity of RE in Russia will exceed 7.5 GW, reflecting an approximate annual growth of 15%. Although these figures are incomparable with global leaders, the trend for Russia remains upward.
- Growth of RE in Russia: The Russian RE sector is increasing volumes annually. Wind farms and solar photovoltaic stations built under support programmes are gradually coming online, increasing the "green" segment. According to official data, renewable energy generation in Russia grew by approximately 20% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the same period last year. The largest increases came from new wind farms in the southern part of the country and a large solar station in the Orenburg region. Consequently, the share of RE (excluding hydropower) in Russia's overall energy balance is nearing 1.5–2%. While this remains a modest figure, it is steadily rising.
- Prospects and Support: The development of renewable energy is regarded by the authorities as a priority direction for the diversification of the fuel and energy complex and reducing the carbon footprint of the economy. A state programme promoting RE (a capacity supply agreement scheme) has been extended until 2035, guaranteeing investors a return on their investments on the condition of localising equipment. It is expected that by 2030, the installed capacity of renewable sources could exceed 15 GW if all announced projects are realised. Besides large-scale generation, attention is also being given to distributed energy: an increasing number of businesses and households are installing their own solar panels and small wind generators, especially in regions supporting microgeneration. International cooperation is also playing a role—Russian companies are exploring the experience of leading countries in developing hydrogen energy and energy storage technologies, with a view to integrating these technologies in the future. Ultimately, gradual growth in RE strengthens energy security, opens up new industries (equipment manufacturing for renewables), and improves environmental conditions.
