Global Oil, Gas and Energy Sector News for Wednesday, 17 December 2025. Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, Key Events and Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on 17 December 2025 attract the attention of investors, market participants and major fuel companies due to their contradictory nature. The decline in oil prices to multi-year lows is occurring simultaneously with a sharp rise in gas prices in the USA, creating a mixed picture in the global energy markets. The world oil market is under pressure from oversupply and sluggish demand – Brent quotes are hovering around $60 per barrel (the lowest this has been in four years), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. At the same time, the gas sector is exhibiting diverging trends: in Europe, prices remain moderate due to high reserves, while in America, wholesale gas prices are hitting records, provoking a local energy crisis. At the same time, amid ongoing sanctions against Russia, its oil and gas revenues are sharply declining, prompting authorities to continue measures to support the domestic fuel market. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – renewable energy in many countries is reaching record levels, although for the reliability of energy systems, states are not yet giving up traditional resources. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Pressure Prices
Global oil prices continued to decline under the influence of fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, while American WTI is close to $56. Current levels are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting the ongoing market correction following price peaks in previous years. Price dynamics are influenced by several factors:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance is generally increasing supply in the market despite falling prices. Key participants in the agreement have partially restored production levels: in December 2025, the total quota was raised by approximately 137,000 barrels per day (as part of a previously announced plan). Although OPEC+ is taking a pause in the first quarter of 2026 due to a seasonal decrease in demand, the current level of production remains high.
- Increased Non-OPEC Supply: In addition to OPEC countries, other producers have also ramped up production. In the USA, oil production has reached record levels (around 13 million barrels/day), with significant export growth from Latin American and African countries. Together, this adds additional oil to the market and reinforces the trend towards oversupply.
- Slowing Demand Growth: The pace of global oil consumption growth has slowed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand growth in 2025 to be less than 1 million barrels/day (compared to approximately 2.5 million in 2023), while OPEC estimates are around +1.3 million barrels/day. Reasons include weakening economic activity in several countries, increased energy efficiency, and relatively high prices in previous years that stimulated energy conservation. Additionally, moderate industrial growth in China limits appetite from the second largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Expectations: The market continues to be influenced by uncertainty in international relations. On the one hand, continued sanctions against Russia and relative instability in the Middle East could support prices; however, the overall oversupply neutralises this effect. On the other hand, sporadic signals of possible dialogue (for example, discussions in the USA regarding plans to reintegrate Russia into the global economy following conflict resolution) somewhat reduce the geopolitical “premium” in oil quotes. As a result, prices fluctuate within a narrow range without sharp jumps, lacking momentum for either a new rally or a crash.
The combined influence of these factors results in an excess of supply over demand, keeping the oil market in a state of surplus. Exchange prices confidently remain significantly below levels of previous years. A number of analysts believe that if current trends persist, in 2026, the average Brent price may drop to around $50 per barrel.
Gas Market: European Stability and Price Surge in the USA
On the gas market, diverging trends are observed. Europe and Asia are entering winter relatively confidently, while an unprecedented price surge for fuel is recorded in North America. The regional situation can be summarised as follows:
- Europe: EU countries met the winter season with high gas reserves. Underground storage was filled to about 75% of total capacity at the beginning of December (compared to around 85% a year ago). Thanks to this buffer and a steady influx of LNG, exchange prices remain low: quotes at the TTF hub have fallen below €30/MWh (approximately $320 per thousand cubic metres). This environment is conducive to European industry and electricity generation on the threshold of peak winter demand.
- USA: In contrast, the American gas market is experiencing a price shock. Wholesale prices at the Henry Hub have exceeded $5.30 per million BTU (approximately $180 per thousand cubic metres) – more than 70% higher than a year ago. This is due to record LNG exports; significant volumes of American LNG are going abroad, provoking a domestic market shortage and rising tariffs for power plants and households. Underinvestment in gas infrastructure has exacerbated the issue of internal and external market separation. Consequently, several energy companies have been compelled to increase coal usage to manage costs – expensive gas temporarily elevated the share of coal generation in the USA.
- Asia: In key Asian markets, gas prices remain relatively stable. Importers in the region are secured with long-term contracts, and a mild start to winter has not created panic demand. In China and India, growth in gas consumption is currently moderate due to restrained economic growth, thus competition with Europe for LNG shipments has not escalated. However, analysts warn that a sharp cold snap or a speeding economy in China could alter the balance: increased demand in Asia is capable of pushing global gas prices higher and intensifying the competition for LNG between East and West.
Thus, the global gas market presents a dual picture. Europe is currently enjoying relatively low prices and comfortable reserves, while in North America, expensive gas has created local supply challenges. Market participants are closely monitoring weather and economic factors that could shift this balance in the coming months.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure and Cautious Signals for Dialogue
In the geopolitical arena, tensions surrounding Russia's energy resources persist. In late October, the European Union approved its 19th sanction package, further tightening restrictive measures. Notably, a complete ban was implemented on any financial and logistical services related to the purchase, transportation or insurance of Russian oil for key Russian oil and gas companies – effectively closing the last loopholes for crude exports to Europe. A 20th sanction package from the EU is expected to be introduced in early 2026, projected to touch on new areas (including the nuclear industry, steel, oil refining, and fertilizers), complicating trade operations with Russia even further.
Simultaneously, the diplomatic horizon has seen the first hints of possible compromise in the future. According to insiders, in recent weeks, the USA has relayed several proposals to European allies regarding the gradual reintegration of Russia into the global economy – of course, contingent on achieving peace and resolving the crisis. Presently, these ideas are unofficial, and no sanctions relief has been enacted. Nevertheless, the mere fact of such discussions signals a search for pathways to dialogue in the long term. For now, the sanctions regime remains stringent, and energy resources from the Russian Federation continue to be sold at significant discounts to a limited circle of buyer countries. Markets are closely monitoring developments: the emergence of tangible peace initiatives could enhance investor sentiment and soften the rhetoric surrounding sanctions, while a lack of progress threatens new restrictions for the Russian oil and gas sector.
Asia: India and China Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing Western sanctions, New Delhi has made it clear that it cannot sharply reduce imports of Russian oil and gas as these resources are vital for national energy security. Indian consumers have secured favourable terms for themselves: Russian suppliers are offering Urals crude at significant discounts (estimated at no less than $5 below Brent prices) to maintain market share in India. As a result, India continues to make large purchases of Russian oil at preferential prices and is even increasing imports of petroleum products from Russia to meet rising demand. Simultaneously, the government is taking steps to reduce dependence on imports in the future. In August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a national programme for the exploration of deepwater oil and gas fields. Under this initiative, the state company ONGC has begun drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and the initial results appear promising. This "deepwater mission" aims to unveil new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to energy independence.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also increasing its energy resource purchases while ramping up domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil (Beijing has not joined in the sanctions and is capitalising on the opportunity to acquire resources at reduced prices). Analysts estimate that in 2025, China's total oil imports will rise by about 3% compared to the previous year, while gas imports are expected to drop by approximately 6% due to increased domestic production and moderate demand. Simultaneously, Beijing is investing considerable funds in developing its national oil and gas extraction capabilities: in 2025, oil production in China rose by approximately 1.7%, and gas production by over 6%. This uptick in domestic output aids in partially satisfying the economy's needs but does not eliminate the necessity for imports. Given the immense scale of consumption, China's dependency on external supplies remains high: it is expected that in the coming years the country will import no less than 70% of its used oil and roughly 40% of its gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers – India and China – will continue to play a key role in global raw material markets, balancing strategies for securing imports with the development of their resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is accelerating rapidly. Many countries are witnessing records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). In Europe, by the end of 2024, the combined generation from solar and wind power plants exceeded electricity generation from coal and gas power stations for the first time. This trend has continued into 2025: due to new capacities coming online, the share of "green" electricity in the EU is steadily increasing, while the share of coal in the energy balance is again declining (after a temporary rise during the crisis of 2022-2023). In the USA, renewable energy has also reached historic levels – over 30% of total generation derives from RES, with the total volume of electricity produced by wind and solar in 2025 surpassing that generated by coal stations for the first time. China, a leader in installed "green" capacity, launches dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines annually, continuously renewing its generation records. Companies and investors worldwide are pouring immense resources into developing clean energy: according to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector surpassed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds directed towards RES projects, modernisation of grids, and energy storage systems. In line with this trend, the European Union has set a new target – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, setting an exceptionally high pace for the phase-out of fossil fuels in favour of low-carbon technologies.
However, energy systems still rely on traditional generation to ensure stability. The increased share of solar and wind presents challenges for grid balancing during times when RES are unavailable (nighttime or calm periods). To meet peak demand and reserve power, gas and even coal power stations have been used again in some cases. For example, in certain European countries last winter, there was a need to temporarily increase production from coal power plants during windless cold weather – despite the environmental costs. Similarly, in autumn 2025, high gas prices in the USA forced energy producers to temporarily raise coal generation. To enhance supply reliability, many governments are investing in energy storage system development (industrial batteries, pumped-storage stations) and smart grids capable of flexibly managing loads. Experts forecast that by 2026-2027, renewable sources will become the leading global electricity generation mode, ultimately surpassing coal. Nevertheless, in the coming years there remains a necessity to support classic power plants as a contingency against supply disruptions. In short, the global energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: Stable Market Amidst Ongoing High Demand
The accelerated development of renewable energy has not negated the key role of the coal industry. The global coal market remains a substantial and important segment of the energy balance. Demand for coal remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support intense consumption of this fuel. China – the world's largest consumer and producer of coal – is burning it at nearly record rates in 2025. Chinese mines annually produce over 4 billion tonnes of coal, satisfying the majority of domestic needs; however, this volume is barely sufficient during peak load times (for instance, in hot summer months with widespread air conditioner use). India, with substantial coal reserves, is also increasing its coal usage: over 70% of the country's electricity is still produced by coal power plants, and absolute coal consumption is growing along with the economy. In other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.), the construction of new coal power plants continues to meet the rising demands of the population and industry.
Supply on the global market has adapted to this steadfast demand. Major exporters – Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa – have significantly increased production and supplies of thermal coal to the external market in recent years. This has allowed prices to remain relatively stable. Following pricing surges in 2022, thermal coal quotes have returned to their customary range and have fluctuated in recent months without sharp changes. The balance of supply and demand appears stable: consumers continue to receive fuel, while producers enjoy stable sales at favourable prices. Although many countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal use for climate objectives, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for the energy supply of billions. Experts estimate that in the next 5-10 years, coal generation – especially in Asia – will maintain a significant role, despite global decarbonisation efforts. Thus, the coal sector is presently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to be a pillar of the world’s energy supply.
Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilise Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel segment of Russia, emergency steps were taken in the past quarter to normalise the price situation. As early as August, wholesale exchange prices for petrol in the country reached new record highs, exceeding levels from 2023. The reasons include a surge in summer demand (tourist season and harvesting campaign) and limited fuel supply amid unscheduled refinery repairs and logistical disruptions. The government has been compelled to tighten market regulation, swiftly implementing a set of measures to cool prices:
- Export Ban on Fuel: A complete ban on the export of petrol and diesel has been in place since September and has been extended until the end of 2025. This measure applies to all producers (including major oil companies) and aims to direct additional volumes to the domestic market.
- Distribution Control: Authorities have tightened monitoring of fuel shipments within the country. Refineries have been mandated to prioritise domestic market needs and prevent exchange resale between suppliers. Concurrently, efforts are being made to develop direct contracts between refineries and fuel companies (retail petrol station networks) to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries from the sales chain and prevent speculative price increases.
- Subsidisation of the Sector: Incentive payments have been maintained for fuel producers. The budget compensates oil companies for part of the lost revenues from domestic market supplies (a damping mechanism), motivating them to direct sufficient volumes of oil products to petrol stations domestically, despite lower profitability compared to exports.
The combination of these measures is already yielding results – the fuel crisis was largely contained in the autumn. Despite record exchange prices for petrol, retail prices at petrol stations have increased much more slowly (around 5% since the beginning of the year, roughly corresponding to overall inflation). A shortage at petrol stations has been avoided; the network of filling stations is adequately stocked. The government is ready to extend export restrictions further if necessary (considering the extension of the ban on petrol and diesel exports until February 2026) and to swiftly deploy fuel reserves to stabilise the market. Monitoring of the situation is maintained at the highest level – relevant ministries and the Deputy Prime Minister are overseeing the matter, assuring that all efforts will be made to ensure stable fuel supply to the domestic market and keep prices within acceptable limits for consumers.
