Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Tuesday, December 16, 2025. In Focus - US Macroeconomics, Geopolitics in Europe, Stimulus Measures in Canada, and Company Reports from the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 Indices.
On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, global markets can expect a dense flow of news. Investors are preparing to analyse key macroeconomic data, primarily from the US, where after a budget pause, a delayed block of statistics on the labour market and real estate will be published. Concurrently, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures for December will be released across different regions – from Australia and Japan to Europe and the US – allowing for an assessment of the state of industry and services on the cusp of a new year. In Europe, attention is fixed on geopolitics: a summit of Eastern European EU countries will take place in Helsinki, focusing on security amidst ongoing threats from Russia. On the monetary front, an important piece of news will be the Bank of Canada’s decision to return to purchasing government bonds (resumption of QE), which may influence sentiment in the money market. Corporate events also demand attention, with financial reports due from American construction giant Lennar and French conglomerate VINCI, among others. Collectively, these events will set the tone for trading across all time zones. It is also worth noting that exchanges in Kazakhstan will be closed on this day due to a national holiday, potentially reducing activity in regional CIS markets.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 01:00 — Australia: preliminary PMI indices in manufacturing, services and overall Composite PMI (December).
- 03:30 — Japan: preliminary PMI indices in manufacturing, services and Composite (December).
- 08:00 — India: preliminary PMI indices in manufacturing and services sectors, Composite PMI (December).
- 11:30 — Germany: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI (December, preliminary data).
- 12:00 — Eurozone: S&P Global Composite PMI (December, preliminary); 12:30 — UK: S&P Global Composite PMI (December, preliminary).
- 13:00 — Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December); Eurozone: ZEW Sentiment Index (December) and trade balance (October).
- 16:15 — US: ADP Employment Report for the private sector (November).
- 16:30 — US: Nonfarm Payrolls (new jobs outside agriculture, November) and unemployment rate (November).
- 16:30 — US: Housing Starts data for September.
- 17:45 — US: preliminary PMI indices in manufacturing, services, and composite (December).
- 00:30 (Wed) — US: weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on crude oil inventories.
Asia and Australia: PMIs Indicate Growth Dynamics
The Asia-Pacific region begins the day with the publication of Purchasing Managers’ Indexes. In Australia, **the preliminary PMI for December** continues to reflect moderate economic growth. The November values showed that the composite index rose to around 52-53 points, signalling an expansion in activity for the fourteenth consecutive month. The services sector particularly feels confident, with demand buoyed by stable consumption, while the industrial sector balances on the brink of stagnation. December figures are expected to maintain this trend: sustained growth in services and a neutral state in manufacturing. This points to a gentle recovery in the Australian economy amidst slowing inflation and a pause in RBA rate hikes.
In Japan, the situation is more varied. The preliminary **Japan PMI** in manufacturing is likely to remain below the 50 mark, continuing to indicate a contraction in factory output. In the previous month, the index improved from 48.2 to around 48.7, but manufacturers are still grappling with weak external orders and cautious domestic demand. Meanwhile, the services sector of the Land of the Rising Sun shows impressive resilience: the final service PMI index for November stood at around 53.2, reflecting strong growth due to the recovery of tourism and robust consumer demand for services. The composite index for Japan remains slightly above 50 points, indicating a slight overall economic expansion. December data will reveal whether Japanese businesses can maintain this fragile balance – investors in Asia will be paying close attention to the PMI figures to assess economic momentum ahead of the Bank of Japan’s decision this week.
India continues to be a bright spot on the emerging markets map. Preliminary **PMI figures for India** in December are expected to confirm high levels of business activity. In November, the Indian economy slightly eased off but remained in robust growth territory: the manufacturing PMI fell to around 56-57 (down from a record ~59 in October), while the services index, on the contrary, accelerated to around 59-60. The overall composite PMI for India hovers around 59, which, while a six-month low, still indicates strong expansion. For investors, such PMI levels mean that the Indian market remains one of the drivers for regional demand – the stable Indian economy supports risk appetite in Asia and demand for commodities, despite growth rates normalising slightly from extremely high levels.
Europe: Business Activity and Economic Sentiment
In Europe, several important indicators will be released mid-day, providing insight into the health of the Eurozone economy as we approach 2026. **Preliminary December PMIs** for leading economies in the region, including Germany, indicate a mixed picture. The industrial sector in the Eurozone remains in decline: Germany's manufacturing PMI has recently stayed notably below 50 (around 45-47 points), reflecting weak external demand and a contraction in manufacturing orders. The high cost of credit and energy continues to stifle manufacturing activity in Europe. The services sector is faring somewhat better – Germany and France's service PMIs have been holding closer to the neutral 50 mark, occasionally exceeding it due to stable consumption. However, the overall **Composite PMI for the Eurozone** has been fluctuating around 47-49 points, indicating an overall contraction in business activity. December’s preliminary data might show a slight uptick in indices amid stabilising energy prices and improved supply conditions. Should the composite PMI approach 50, this would signal a potential exit from technical recession for the region's economy, supporting European stock indices (Euro Stoxx 50, DAX). Conversely, if negative PMI trends persist, concerns over stagnation will intensify, weighing on the euro's exchange rate.
Beyond the PMIs, at 13:00 MSK, investors will examine the **ZEW Economic Sentiment Index** for Germany and the Eurozone. In the previous month, the German indicator climbed out of deep negativity, nearing -10 points, reflecting a gradual reduction of pessimism among analysts. The December ZEW is expected to show further improvement in sentiment as inflation declines and hopes for ECB policy easing loom. If the ZEW index hits the highs of recent months (close to zero or positive figures), it will confirm a trend of recovering confidence and could positively impact the banking sector and cyclical stocks in Europe. Simultaneously, Eurostat will release the **Eurozone Trade Data for October**: the market anticipates that a surplus will persist as lower energy prices have reduced import costs, while a weaker euro has supported exports. An increase in the trade surplus would serve as an additional positive factor for the euro and European markets, whereas an unexpected deficit could raise questions about the region's competitiveness.
Geopolitics: Eastern EU Summit in Helsinki
Apart from macroeconomic releases, an important geopolitical event will shape Europe's agenda. On December 16, in Helsinki, a summit of Eastern EU countries will be held, focused on coordinating defensive measures **"to protect against Russia."** The initiative for the meeting comes from Finland: Prime Minister Petteri Orpo is convening the leaders of Finland, Sweden, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Bulgaria to discuss strengthening joint security. On the agenda are issues concerning the financing of the protection of the EU’s eastern borders, the enhancement of air defence, and the increasing of land forces' capacity. The summit participants aim to agree on a unified stance and formulate a request to Brussels for additional resources to defend the European Union's eastern frontiers.
This event is significant for markets in the context of potential increases in defence spending and heightened geopolitical tensions. Efforts to fortify the EU's borders indicate a long-term risk on the eastern front of Europe. Investors may anticipate a rise in government spending on the military sector and security, which could be beneficial for European defence industry companies (e.g., arms manufacturers, cybersecurity technologies, etc.). However, the summit sends a clear signal of cohesion among Eastern European countries in the face of the Russian threat, thereby lowering the political risk premium in the region. Should specific defence funding programmes be announced post-meeting, this could provide a short-term boost to the euro and shares of European defence companies. Nevertheless, the geopolitical factor remains dual-edged: on one hand, enhanced security fosters confidence; on the other, the mere presence of a "constant threat," as articulated by leaders, keeps investors cautious regarding the region's assets.
Canada: Bank of Canada’s Return to Stimulus
News will also come from central banks on Tuesday. The focus will be on the **Bank of Canada**, which is starting to implement a decision to resume purchases of government treasury bills on the open market. Essentially, the regulator is returning to elements of quantitative easing (QE) for the first time in a long while. The intended volumes of treasury bill purchases are significant – reports indicate that initial rounds could amount to tens of billions of Canadian dollars. The goal of the programme is to restore the optimal asset structure on the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet and support liquidity in the financial system amidst increasing government funding needs.
For investors, this signals a softening of monetary conditions in Canada. The additional demand from the central bank for short-term government bonds is likely to lower yields in this segment and slightly weaken the Canadian dollar (CAD) due to an increase in the money supply. However, officials have emphasised that this pertains specifically to purchasing bills (short-term securities), rather than a full resumption of QE for long-term bonds – indicating the goal is more technical in nature, for liquidity management, rather than direct economic stimulus. Nonetheless, markets may perceive this move as a precursor to a more accommodative policy if economic conditions worsen. The Toronto stock market (S&P/TSX index) may receive moderate support from this news, particularly for bank and real estate shares benefiting from lower rates. Conversely, in the global currency market, the USD/CAD pair may move in favour of the US dollar. Investors should closely monitor the rhetoric from the Bank of Canada: if the regulator hints at the possibility of expanding or extending purchases into 2026, it would be a clear "dovish" signal capable of boosting sentiment in emerging markets and prompting other central banks to consider easing.
US: Key Labour Market Data
The main event of the day for global markets will be the publication of a delayed US labour market report for November. **US Nonfarm Payrolls** (number of new jobs outside agriculture) will be released at 16:30 MSK and will attract intense attention, as October’s data were not published due to a budget crisis and are now merged with November’s. The extended period of data collection renders forecasts challenging: economists expect a modest increase in employment, possibly in the range of 100-150,000 jobs, which would be significantly below previous trends. This relative decline in hiring could be attributed to the effects of autumn uncertainty and a partial suspension of federal agency operations in October. However, a scenario of "compensatory growth" is also possible if some of the unfilled vacancies from October were filled in November, potentially exceeding expectations.
Concurrently, the Department of Labour will publish the **unemployment rate** for November. Given that October's unemployment data were not collected, investors will primarily compare the new figure with the September level (which stood at 3.9%). Should unemployment rise significantly above 4%, it would indicate a weakening labour market and intensify expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, if unemployment remains close to previous values (around 3.9-4.0%) with weak Payrolls growth, it would underscore the phenomenon of low labour force participation: the labour market is cooling, but without mass layoffs, leaving the Fed pondering its next steps. Overall, weak employment data would serve as a signal to markets that the tightening monetary policy cycle in the US has certainly concluded, even reviving discussions about potential rate cuts in the first half of 2026. This could lead to declines in US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, while simultaneously supporting growth stocks (technology sector). Conversely, should employment figures unexpectedly show resilience (for instance, if Payrolls exceed 200,000), the reaction would be the opposite – the risk of a "hawkish" Fed position would rise, triggering sell-offs in equity markets and strengthening the USD.
An additional nuance to the labour market picture will be provided by the **ADP Employment Report** for the private sector, released shortly before the official figures. In the previous month, ADP indicated a decline in employment in private companies – a signal that businesses have begun to approach hiring more cautiously. If the new ADP for November indicates weak growth or negative change, this will bolster investors' confidence in easing labour market conditions. However, it’s essential to consider that the correlation between ADP and official Payrolls is not always direct, particularly during unconventional periods. Nevertheless, coinciding trends (for example, a weak ADP and modest Payrolls) would serve as confirmation of the overall trend of cooling in the US economy as the year draws to a close.
US: Construction Sector and Business Activity
Aside from labour indicators, the US will catch up on the publication of other macro indicators important for assessing the state of the economy. At 16:30 MSK, delayed data on **housing construction for September** will be released. This refers to the Housing Starts figure – the number of new residential construction projects. Its publication was delayed due to governmental agency operations halting, and now investors will receive figures for September (and possibly soon for October as well). Expectations for the housing market are restrained: high mortgage rates (over 7% annually in the autumn) sharply cooled demand for new homes. In August, Housing Starts in the US fell, and September is likely to exhibit similar weak dynamics. A potential decline in the number of starts by 5-10% relative to the previous month would indicate struggles in the construction sector – builders are slowing down projects amid the high cost of borrowing and cautious consumers. However, there is a silver lining: a reduction in new home construction aids in easing the oversupply situation and could support home prices in the future. Markets will perceive weak data on Housing Starts as an additional argument in favour of the Fed possibly easing its policy next year to prevent a sharp downturn in an interesting economy.
In the evening, fresh assessments of business activity in the US will be released: **preliminary December PMIs** from S&P Global (formerly Markit). In November, the US economy pleasantly surprised: the composite PMI for the US rose above 54 points, demonstrating solid expansion, especially in services (around 54-55) while maintaining growth in manufacturing (around 52). These figures indicated that despite high rates, the US economy maintains a decent pace in Q4. Investors will now check if this momentum held in December. If the composite PMI remains in the mid-50s, it will confirm the resilience of American business and demand, supporting "bullish" sentiment on Wall Street. The market will pay particular attention to the new orders and employment components in the indices: growth in new orders signals a good start to 2026 for companies, while the employment component in the PMI will show whether firms are starting to cut personnel. In the context of previously discussed Payrolls, coinciding signals (such as a slowdown in hiring and a modest PMI decline) would give a holistic picture of cooling. Conversely, a strong PMI against weak Payrolls could indicate that the main weakness is concentrated in large corporations, whereas small and medium-sized businesses are still feeling confident. Regardless, the PMIs published at 17:45 MSK will serve as the final note in the day's macro data, one that traders will react to before market close.
Commodity Markets: Oil and Inventory Data
Following the close of the main trading session, commodity market investors will receive their usual dose of news – at 00:30 MSK, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly **oil inventory report** for the US. Although the official EIA statistics will be released the following day, API data often sets the direction of oil price movement during the Asian session on Wednesday. Currently, the oil market is attempting to stabilise after a volatile autumn: earlier, WTI prices dropped to multi-year lows (below $70 per barrel) but subsequently partially recovered amidst OPEC+ production cuts and initial signs of demand growth in Asia. Attention now shifts to inventories in the US: seasonal factors (heating season) typically lead to a reduction in commercial crude oil and petroleum products stocks by year-end.
Should the API report indicate a significant reduction in oil inventories over the week, it will confirm strong demand for energy resources and may propel Brent and WTI prices upwards. Inventory levels in the Cushing hub (for WTI) are particularly crucial – their decline to multi-year lows earlier this autumn has already prompted price rallies. Conversely, an unexpected accumulation of inventories (a rise in the indicator) would point to a temporary supply surplus or reduced refinery throughput, potentially exerting downward pressure on oil prices. In addition to crude oil, investors traditionally look to the dynamics of gasoline and distillate inventories through API: their increase during the winter period would signal weakening final demand for fuel. Overall, the oil market currently balances between OPEC+'s efforts to restrict supply and recession fears that dampen demand. Thus, any data confirming trends (whether inventory reductions or increases) may prompt significant price movements. Oil volatility, in turn, influences related assets: currencies of exporting countries (Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, Russian rouble) and shares of oil and gas companies. Investors in these segments should be prepared for overnight fluctuations and hedge price risks before the API statistics are released.
Corporate Reports: Lennar and VINCI on the Radar
On the corporate front, December 16 will see a relatively quiet inter-season period enlivened by reports from several major public companies across different parts of the world. Particular attention will be drawn to the results of American **Lennar Corporation** and French **VINCI**, which will be released before the market opens in their respective countries. These reports will offer insights into sectors sensitive to macro trends – real estate in the US and infrastructure in Europe.
Lennar (LEN, S&P 500) – one of the largest homebuilders in the US – will present financial results for the 4th quarter of the 2025 fiscal year. This report is particularly important against the backdrop of the aforementioned downturn in the US housing market. Investors are eager to see how sales of homes by Lennar have grown or contracted and how costs have risen due to expensive loans. In the previous quarter, Lennar demonstrated remarkable resilience: despite rising mortgage rates, revenue was buoyed by selling homes from inventories at fixed prices and active demand in southern states. However, profitability may have suffered – the market is keen on understanding profit dynamics and management forecasts. If Lennar reports a decline in new home orders and a cautious outlook for 2026, it will confirm the difficulties within the sector and could have a negative impact not just on Lennar's shares, but also on competitive homebuilding firms (D.R. Horton, PulteGroup) and related industries (suppliers of construction materials, furniture retailers). Conversely, any positive signals – such as demand stabilisation in December or the company's plans to reduce costs – will sustain investor interest in the sector, particularly considering that the shares of many developers have been significantly corrected previously. The report from Lennar will also indirectly provide insights for banks specialising in mortgages and regulatory authorities monitoring the “health” of the housing market.
VINCI (DG, Euro Stoxx 50) will release production results for November, including data on traffic and revenue from its infrastructure assets. VINCI is a diversified French holding company managing toll roads, airports, construction contractors, and energy projects worldwide. Monthly traffic figures on French highways and passenger flow in airports serve as a barometer of economic activity in Europe. In recent months, VINCI has reported robust traffic growth on French highways and comparably recovering passenger flows in its airports (after pandemic lows). However, growth rates may have slowed in the autumn due to high fuel prices and weakening European economies. If the report shows a decrease in traffic intensity (for instance, falling traffic on toll roads in November compared to the previous year) or stagnation in air travel, shares of VINCI and other infrastructure companies in the EU may be under temporary pressure. The construction segment at VINCI is also in focus: the order book of its construction division serves as an indicator of investment activity. Any signals of declining new contracts or postponing projects due to rising financing costs will concern the market. Nonetheless, VINCI is known as a defensive business with stable cash flow; if the results are neutral or better than expected, this will bolster confidence in the European infrastructure sector. Investors will also be looking for management commentary on VINCI’s plans for 2026 – estimates regarding traffic in light of a potential recession and plans regarding participation in government infrastructure tenders that may be activated if the EU decides to stimulate the economy with investments will be critical.
Other companies reporting on this day may include smaller Canadian and Asian firms, but they are unlikely to significantly influence the global sentiment. Overall, the corporate calendar on December 16 is light, and markets will react specifically to reports from individual issuers. This implies that macroeconomic factors and political events will take precedence in determining the direction of stock indices.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
Throughout this eventful day, market participants should focus on the following key points:
- Data from the US: Delayed macro data (labour market, housing construction) will set the tone for global trading. Weak figures will heighten expectations for Fed easing and support shares, while unexpectedly strong data could conversely intensify "hawkish" sentiment and cause correction.
- Business Climate via PMIs: The simultaneous release of preliminary PMIs from numerous countries will provide a global snapshot of the economy. Investors should compare trends: will the decline in European manufacturing continue, and will the growth in services in the US and Asia hold? These indicators will help adjust GDP and corporate profit forecasts for early 2026.
- Geopolitical Decisions: The outcomes of the EU summit in Helsinki could influence long-term expectations regarding the defence sector and political risks in Eastern Europe. Any announced measures or defence funding will be a factor for reassessment of defence-related companies and could indirectly affect the euro and regional indices.
- Central Bank Actions: The Bank of Canada's decision on bond purchases is a signal of a changing monetary environment. Investors should evaluate this alongside the rhetoric of major central banks (Fed, ECB): a pivot towards softer tones in 2026 could be on the table. Any hints at additional easing measures (even if technical, like in Canada) will be positively received by the markets, lowering bond yields and supporting demand for riskier assets.
- Company Reports: The market's reaction to Lennar’s, VINCI’s, and other corporations’ results will indicate sentiment in individual sectors. For instance, a strong report from Lennar could enhance investor perception of the entire construction sector in the US, while weak results from VINCI may raise concerns about infrastructure projects in Europe. Individual stock movements could be significant, but the broader market will only react if the reports confirm or refute overarching economic trends.
Thus, December 16, 2025, will be among the most significant days of the pre-holiday period, offering a wealth of information for market reassessment. Investors are advised to remain attentive to the incoming data and news – from statistical releases to political statements. A comprehensive analysis of all signals from this day will help understand the state of the global economy as it approaches year-end and where new risks or investment opportunities may lie heading into 2026. The ability to quickly interpret the information received and, if necessary, adjust portfolios will enable one to capitalise on heightened volatility and lay foundations for successful strategies for the future.
