Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy Sector of Russia as of December 15, 2025: Sanctions, Exports, Oil and Gas Markets, Domestic Fuel Prices, Renewable Energy Sources, and Global Commodity Trends. Detailed Analytical Overview for Investors and Market Participants in the Fuel and Energy Complex.
The current developments in the fuel and energy complex as of December 15, 2025, are attracting the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictory nature. The United States has implemented unprecedented sanctions against the Russian oil industry, resulting in a restructuring of global energy resource trade and highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, oil prices in the global market remain relatively stable and hover near multi-month lows: an oversupply and cautious demand are restraining quotes at moderate levels. The North Sea Brent blend trades at approximately $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI falls within the $57–59 range, reflecting a decline of around 15% compared to last year, as the market continues to correct following the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022–2023. The European gas market is also demonstrating resilient equilibrium: gas storage facilities in the EU are filled to over 70%, providing a solid buffer for the start of winter, and traded gas prices remain relatively low (around $9 per MMBtu, significantly below last year's levels).
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum — many countries are reporting record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources, although for the reliability of energy systems, nations continue to rely on traditional resources. As a result, against the backdrop of green transformation and increasing sanctions confrontation, governments and companies are compelled to balance decarbonisation strategies with energy security provision. In Russia, following a recent spike in fuel prices, authorities are implementing a comprehensive set of measures to stabilise the domestic oil products market — ranging from export restrictions to record subsidies for oil producers. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electric power, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain at relatively low levels influenced by fundamental factors. Following a notable increase in production in 2024–2025 by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+), along with rising supplies from the US and other independent producers, market expectations of oversupply have grown. At the same time, global oil demand is only growing moderately: China's economic slowdown in the first half of the year and improved energy efficiency are curbing consumption, although by the end of 2025, the global macroeconomic situation has begun to improve. Together, these factors prevent prices from rebounding: Brent remains near $60 per barrel, and WTI is below $60. In comparison, a year ago, oil traded at significantly higher prices, so current quotes reflect a gradual return of the market to normalcy following a turbulent period of volatility. Amid threats of market oversaturation, OPEC+ suspended production increases for the first time in a long while, opting to maintain quotas unchanged at least through the first quarter of 2026. According to recent forecasts, global oil supply may exceed demand by approximately 3–4 million barrels per day next year, although recent sanctions have somewhat reduced the expected oversupply. The International Energy Agency noted that sanctions against specific supplier countries (primarily Russia and Venezuela) are reducing available volumes in the market, while economic improvement is adding confidence to demand. In its December report, OPEC confirms an anticipated increase in oil consumption in 2026 and expects a more balanced market: according to the cartel's estimates, global demand and supply will be nearly aligned next year. Thus, the oil market enters 2026 with cautious optimism: despite the pressure from excessive reserves, OPEC+ measures and economic recovery are likely to keep prices from falling further.
Gas Market: Comfortable Reserves in Europe and Moderate Fuel Prices
The gas market is currently focused on Europe, which is confidently navigating the beginning of the winter season due to accumulated reserves. European countries have proactively filled their underground storage facilities to high levels: by mid-December, gas reserves exceed 75% of storage capacity, significantly surpassing averages from past years. These comfortable reserves ensure a reliable buffer in case of cold weather spikes and help maintain prices. Currently, spot quotes at the TTF hub fluctuate around €25–28 per MWh (approximately $8–9 per MMBtu), remaining at moderate levels and about one-third lower than last year. Even during cold spells, there are no sharp price spikes as the market remains balanced thanks to diversified liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and reduced consumption. This situation is beneficial for European industry and energy needs at the onset of winter, reducing the burden on household and corporate budgets compared to the crisis of 2022.
Potential risks of increased competition for energy resources from Asia loom ahead if economic growth in the Asia-Pacific countries accelerates and they begin actively purchasing additional LNG volumes. However, currently, the European gas balance appears stable. Moreover, the European Union is taking strategic steps towards complete independence from Russian energy resources. Politically, there has been an agreement to gradually cease imports of Russian gas: a complete ban on LNG supplies from Russia is planned to take effect by the end of 2026, and pipeline gas from the autumn of 2027. This continues the EU's course towards enhancing energy security initiated after the events of 2022. Already, imports of Russian gas have decreased to around 13% of total supplies to the EU, and the share of Russian oil in European imports has fallen below 3%. Thus, Europe is securing its gas supplies through alternative sources and is confidently reducing its dependence on Russia, which in the long run will decrease its market vulnerability and contribute to price stability.
International Politics: New US Sanctions Transforming the Global Oil Market
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on the fuel and energy market. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the United States sharply intensified its sanctions pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector. In October, the US administration imposed direct sanctions against two of Russia's largest oil companies — Rosneft and Lukoil, which account for about two-thirds of Russian oil exports. These measures, effective from late November, target the very core of Russia's oil industry and effectively demonstrate that even the leading companies in the country are no longer considered "too big" for sanctions. As a result, Moscow's export opportunities have faced new obstacles: industry analysts estimate that oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget fell by about one-third in November compared to the previous year, reaching their lowest level since the onset of the sanctions war in 2022. The blow to major exporters has led to disruptions in the sale of Russian oil in the global market: traders report an increase in oil volumes from Russia seeking buyers and stored in tankers at sea, as conventional trade chains have been disrupted.
Many countries that previously increased purchases of Russian energy resources are re-evaluating their policies under the pressure of sanctions and market conditions. Turkey, India, Brazil, and several other major importers have reduced their purchases of Russian oil by the end of the year, seeking to avoid secondary sanctions and issues with financial transactions. Nevertheless, China remains a key buyer: Beijing, which has not joined the Western restrictions, continues to purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas, insisting on substantial discounts. Exporters from Russia are compelled to offer discounts to global prices to retain the Asian market — according to trading platforms, the Urals grade trades at a discount of about $15–20 relative to Brent. Additional pressure on Moscow comes from the European Union, which has largely ceased imports of Russian oil and petroleum products and is now legislating a complete renunciation of Russian gas in the coming years. Consequently, the global oil market is experiencing structural changes: Russian companies are swiftly divesting foreign assets (refineries, distribution networks in Europe and other regions), making room for competitors, while traditional raw material trade flows are being redirected. Although dialogue between Moscow and Washington regarding energy is presently virtually frozen, the continuation of sanctions escalation remains a serious factor of uncertainty for the market. Investors are monitoring the situation: further tightening of restrictions or retaliatory measures from Russia could impact global prices, while any hints at a de-escalation would be regarded as a positive signal. For now, the status quo remains that the sanctions confrontation continues, and market participants are adapting to the newly divided reality of the oil and gas space.
Asia: India and China Balancing Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Confronted with pressure from Western sanctions, New Delhi is clearly prioritising energy security and does not intend to sharply reduce purchases of Russian energy resources. Russian oil and gas remain crucial elements in the country's import structure, and an abrupt discontinuation is deemed unacceptable given the economy's needs. Instead, India has negotiated favourable terms: Russian suppliers are offering increased discounts on Urals oil (estimated at about $5 per barrel against Brent prices), enabling Indian refineries to procure feedstock at a reduced rate. As a result, India continues to actively purchase Russian oil on preferential terms and is even increasing imports of petroleum products from Russia to satisfy the growing domestic fuel demand. Simultaneously, the government is strengthening its long-term strategy to reduce import dependency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a large-scale programme for the exploration of deep-sea oil and gas fields on Independence Day in August. Under this initiative, the state corporation ONGC is undertaking ultra-deep drilling (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, with the first results evaluated as promising. This "deep-sea mission" aims to stimulate the discovery of new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to its goal of increasing energy self-sufficiency in the future.
- China: Asia's largest economy is also ramping up energy resource purchases while simultaneously investing in boosting its own production. Chinese companies remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas: Beijing has not supported sanctions against Moscow and has seized the opportunity to import Russian raw materials at advantageous prices. According to customs statistics from the PRC, in 2024, China imported approximately 212.8 million tonnes of oil and 246.4 billion cubic metres of natural gas — these volumes increased by 1.8% and 6.2% respectively compared to the previous year. In 2025, imports have continued at high levels, although growth rates have somewhat slowed due to the high base effect and general rising oil prices. Simultaneously, China is stimulating domestic oil and gas production: from January to September 2025, national companies extracted about 180 million tonnes of oil and 210 billion cubic metres of gas, which slightly exceeds levels from the same period last year. The increase in domestic production partially offsets rising demand but does not eliminate China's need for external supplies. The PRC authorities continue to invest in field development and enhanced oil recovery technologies, striving to slow the growth of imports. Nevertheless, considering the scale of the economy, China's dependence on energy resource imports remains significant: experts estimate that in the coming years, the country will import at least 70% of its oil consumption and around 40% of its gas. Therefore, the two largest Asian consumers — India and China — continue to play a key role in global commodity markets, combining strategies for ensuring imports with the development of their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. In 2025, many nations reported new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), primarily solar and wind. The European Union reported that for the year 2024, total generation from solar and wind power plants for the first time exceeded electricity generation from coal and gas power plants. This trend continued into 2025: the integration of new capacities kept increasing the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while the proportion of coal in the energy balance is gradually declining following a temporary rise during the 2022–2023 crisis. In the United States, renewable energy has also reached historic heights — by early 2025, over 30% of total generation came from RES, and the total output from wind and solar surpassed that from coal plants for the first time. China, as the global leader in installed RES capacity, annually brings online tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines, continually setting its own records for "green" generation. Overall, companies and investors are directing unprecedented funds towards the development of clean energy: according to the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds allocated to RES projects, as well as modernising grid infrastructure and energy storage systems. The international climate agenda also provides additional impetus — at the recent UN climate summit (COP30), global leaders reaffirmed their commitment to emission reduction goals, implying an accelerated expansion of low-carbon energy in the coming years.
At the same time, energy systems still require traditional generation to ensure stability and cover peak loads. The rapid increase in the share of solar and wind plants presents new challenges for grid balancing during hours when renewable generation is temporarily unavailable — at night, during calm weather, or under extreme loads. To guarantee uninterrupted electricity supply, operators must sometimes recommission gas and even coal plants. For instance, in some European regions last winter, there was a temporary increase in coal plant generation during periods of calm and cold weather, despite the environmental costs associated with this step. Acknowledging these risks, many governments are investing in developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped hydro storage) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly redistributing loads. These measures aim to enhance supply reliability as the share of RES increases. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources could become the world's largest in electricity generation volume, definitively surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, there remains a need to maintain classical power plants as reserves and insurance against disruptions. Thus, the global energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources to ensure that energy systems remain resilient and flexible.
Coal: Stable Market Amid Persistently High Demand
Despite the rapid development of renewable sources, the global coal market maintains significant volumes and continues to be a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity demands support the intensive use of this fuel. China — the world's largest consumer and producer of coal — in 2025 continues to burn coal at nearly record levels. Annual extraction at Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tonnes, which covers the lion's share of the country's domestic needs. However, this barely suffices to meet peak demand during specific periods: for instance, in hot summer months when air conditioning use surges, China's power system faces increased strain, and coal generation remains indispensable to prevent outages. India, possessing large coal reserves, is also increasing its consumption: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated at coal power plants, and absolute coal usage is growing alongside the economy. Other developing countries in Asia (such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh) are implementing projects to build new coal power plants, striving to meet the rising energy consumption of their populations and industries.
Global production and trade in coal have adapted to the ongoing high demand. The largest exporters — Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa — have increased extraction and export deliveries of thermal coal in recent years, which has helped maintain prices at moderate levels. Following price spikes in 2022, thermal coal quotes have returned to more typical values, fluctuating within a narrow range in recent months. The balance of supply and demand currently appears stable: consumers are assured necessary fuel while producers enjoy a reliable market with profitable pricing. Although several countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal use in the future for climate goals, in the short term, coal remains an irreplaceable resource for providing electricity to billions. Most experts believe that in the next 5–10 years, coal generation — especially in Asia — will continue to play a significant role, even amidst global decarbonisation efforts. Thus, the coal sector is experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand is consistently high, prices are moderate, and the sector continues to be a fundamental pillar of the global energy landscape.
The Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilise Fuel Prices
In the internal fuel segment of Russia, emergency steps are being taken in the second half of 2025 to normalise the price situation and prevent fuel shortages. As early as August, wholesale exchange prices for automotive gasoline in Russia reached new historical highs, surpassing last year's records. This occurred against a backdrop of several factors: high summer demand (active tourism and agricultural harvesting), limited fuel reserves, and unscheduled shutdowns at several refineries. Accidents and drone attacks in late summer damaged several large refineries, reducing gasoline output and leading to local supply disruptions in some regions. Facing an impending fuel crisis, the government was compelled to intensify manual market regulation. On August 14, an extraordinary meeting of the monitoring headquarters for the fuel and energy complex, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, announced a comprehensive set of measures to reduce price surges and stabilise supplies in the domestic market. Among the key steps taken are:
- Export Restrictions on Fuel: The temporary ban on the export of gasoline and diesel from Russia, introduced in late summer, has been extended indefinitely. The government has explicitly mandated oil companies to redirect reserves to the domestic market. Authorities are also discussing the introduction of quotas or a complete embargo on diesel fuel exports to ensure priority supply to domestic consumers.
- Control Over Distribution and Refinery Operations: Regulators have intensified oversight of fuel distribution within the country. Producers are mandated to satisfy domestic market needs first and avoid exchange re-sales, which previously drove prices up. One of the reasons for the shortages has been unscheduled shutdowns at major oil refineries, so particular attention is being paid to the accelerated restoration of their operations and preventing similar disruptions. The Ministry of Energy, in collaboration with the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, is developing long-term measures — for instance, transitioning to direct contracts between refineries and fuel station networks bypassing trading intermediaries — to make the fuel distribution system more transparent and resilient.
- Subsidies and a Mechanism to Stabilise Prices: The state has increased financial support for refiners to curb prices at fuel stations. Budget payments for the reverse excise tax on fuel (the so-called "safety net") continue uninterrupted, compensating companies for the difference between export and domestic revenues. In October, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree restricting the suspension of compensation payments to oil producers until May 2026, effectively removing previously imposed limitations on the amount of subsidies. According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first 9 months of 2025, oil companies received approximately 715.5 billion rubles as part of the fuel safety net — an unprecedented volume of state support aimed at price stabilisation. These measures encourage companies to keep a greater volume of oil products within the domestic market, despite higher prices abroad.
The combination of measures taken aims at the gradual stabilisation of fuel prices in Russia and preventing shortages at gas stations. The extension of export restrictions is expected to increase gasoline supply within the country by hundreds of thousands of tonnes monthly — previously these volumes were exported. At the same time, massive subsidies maintain the economic motivation for oil companies to saturate the domestic market. The government states its readiness to continue taking preventive action: if the situation requires, restrictions on fuel exports will be extended, and additional resources from state reserves will be promptly directed to regions. So far, the severity of the fuel crisis has somewhat eased: despite record wholesale prices, retail prices for gasoline and diesel at gas stations have risen much more moderately (by a few percentage points since the beginning of the year, closely aligned with overall inflation). Fuel stations are adequately supplied, and it is anticipated that implemented measures will gradually cool exchange quotes. Oversight of the situation continues at the highest level — relevant ministries and the Russian government are prepared to introduce new mechanisms if necessary to ensure stable fuel supply for the domestic market and keep prices within acceptable limits for end consumers.
