Oil Market: Brent at $87 — Market Awaits Deal in Hormuz
Oil prices finish the week mixed. Brent is trading around $87 per barrel after a 2.2% decline on Thursday, while WTI is hovering around $81. Since the onset of the conflict between the US and Israel with Iran at the end of February, the international benchmark has risen by approximately a quarter, and year-on-year growth exceeds 30%. The main factors driving price dynamics are:
- Status of the Strait of Hormuz: The crucial maritime corridor, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies passed before the war, remains formally blocked. Iran and Oman are negotiating shipping routes, but no agreement has been reached; Tehran demands the lifting of the US maritime blockade as a precondition for fully reopening the strait.
- Actual Flows: Despite the stalemate in negotiations, oil continues to leave the Persian Gulf — according to American estimates, up to 9 million barrels per day are transiting through the strait, with some tankers operating with their transponders turned off, and the US Navy's capabilities to escort vessels are expanding. Attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure maintain a risk premium.
- Supply Deficit: The IEA estimates the current quarter's oil deficit in the global market at 1.8 million barrels per day — double its previous forecast; in July, supply remained 6.3 million b/d below last year's levels.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) does not expect Middle Eastern production to return to pre-war levels until the beginning of 2027 and forecasts an average Brent price of $87 per barrel in 2026.
Demand Under Pressure: IEA and OPEC Cut Forecasts
The flip side of the price shock is the destruction of demand. This week, the IEA downgraded its forecast for global oil consumption, warning that the protracted conflict and high prices increasingly pressure economic activity. OPEC, in turn, reduced its estimate for global demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day — marking the fourth consecutive downward revision. An additional bearish signal came from the US: commercial oil stocks rose by an unprecedented 17.4 million barrels in one week — the largest weekly increase on record — amid significant withdrawals from the strategic reserve and a sharp rise in imports. Some analysts believe the market's peak deficit was reached in May-June; however, the future price trajectory entirely depends on the conflict's progression and the status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Record Low Stocks
The European gas market remains the most vulnerable link in the global energy chain. TTF hub prices fluctuated between €56 and €62 per MWh during the week, spiking over 10% at the beginning of the week due to supply risk news. Key issues include:
- Low Stocks: EU underground storage is only about 55-58% full — the worst level for mid-August in recorded history since 2009 and approximately 22 percentage points below the five-year average. Brussels has already reduced the mandatory filling target from 90% to 80% by 1 November, but even that is now at risk.
- LNG Shortage: Shipments of Qatari liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz are experiencing significant delays, and competition with Asia for available cargoes is intensifying amid a hot summer.
- The Norwegian Factor: The extension of maintenance at the Ormen Lange field until February 2027 may withdraw over 1 billion cubic meters of gas from the market during the heating season.
Banks and energy companies are raising their price forecasts: Commerzbank has raised its end-of-year forecast to €50 per MWh, while Uniper expects a range of €50-60 as long as the strait remains closed. The heat in Europe further increases demand for electricity for air conditioning, intensifying pressure on gas balances.
Power Generation and Renewables: Sun and Wind Break Records
Amid the hydrocarbon storm, renewable energy is showing a structural breakthrough. According to forecasts from the Ember analytical centre, by 2026, the combined output of solar and wind stations in Europe could exceed gas generation for the longest period in recorded history — monthly renewable energy generation has reached 80-110 TWh. The global picture is equally impressive: in 2025, the world added a record 800 GW of renewable capacity (+16% year-on-year), with over 600 GW coming from solar energy; China accounted for about 60% of the global increase. For the first time ever, the sun has become the largest source of meeting the growth in global energy demand. In the US, wind and solar contributed a record 17% of electricity generation, and in 2026 nearly all net capacity growth will come from renewables and storage systems. High gas and oil prices only accelerate investments in clean generation, storage systems, and networks.
Coal: Beneficiary of the Energy Crisis
The coal market strengthens due to inter-fuel switching effects. Futures for Newcastle thermal coal have stabilised around $130 per ton — approximately 17% above last year's level: expensive oil and gas are making coal generation more attractive in importing countries in Europe and Asia. China has published a five-year plan for the coal industry, which includes consolidation and digitisation of mines while creating a capacity reserve exceeding 100 million tons per year. India is ramping up its own production — in July, output increased by 7.5% year-on-year, reducing dependence on imports. In the short term, coal remains a safeguard for Asian energy systems against gas shortages and expensive oil.
Russia: Fuel Export Ban Extended until January 2027
The internal market for petroleum products in Russia continues under a regime of manual control. The government has extended the full ban on the export of automotive gasoline — now until 31 January 2027, expanding restrictions to both producers and traders; the rules for exporting diesel fuel, marine fuel, and gas oils have also been tightened. The reasons and accompanying measures include:
- A surge in drone attacks on oil refineries in early August led to the shutdown of several plants and reduced exchange sales of gasoline;
- Market prices have stabilised at high levels: the AI-92 index is around 71,400 rubles per ton, with AI-95 at about 76,000 rubles per ton;
- Authorities have allowed the production of Euro-3 grade fuel and simplified the import of petroleum products from friendly countries;
- A mechanism is being developed for direct contracts between refineries and suppliers, bypassing the exchange to reduce speculative pressure.
Experts anticipate a gradual normalisation of supply by the end of August and do not rule out a significant decrease in wholesale prices no earlier than the fourth quarter — provided there are no further unscheduled refinery shutdowns.
What This Means for Investors and Energy Market Participants
The market has entered a phase of fragile equilibrium: the geopolitical premium in oil faces growing signs of demand destruction, while the European gas market has priced in risks of a deficit winter. For investors, key indicators for the coming weeks include:
- Negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz — any progress could collapse oil and gas prices by 10-15%, while a breakdown in dialogue would return Brent to $90 and above.
- Gas Injection Rates in Europe's Storage Facilities — any lag in the schedule by the end of September could trigger premature pricing of winter deficits on TTF.
- Data on Stocks and Demand in the US and China — confirmation of consumption weakness would reinforce the corrective scenario in oil.
- The Situation with Russian Refineries — the balance of the domestic fuel market and the timing of the easing of export restrictions depend on the recovery of processing.
Day's Summary: Key Energy Figures as of 15 August 2026
- Brent — around $87 per barrel; WTI — around $81;
- Global oil market deficit — 1.8 million b/d in the current quarter (IEA estimate);
- Forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 — 580,000 b/d (OPEC, fourth consecutive downward revision);
- Gas TTF — €56-62 per MWh; EU storage levels — around 55-58%;
- Newcastle coal — around $130 per ton (+17% year-on-year);
- Export ban on gasoline from Russia — extended until 31 January 2027.
Saturday in the energy markets will be marked by anticipation: the fate of the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary pricing factor for oil, gas, coal, and electricity worldwide. Investors and energy companies should prepare for heightened volatility — autumn 2026 is expected to be a test of resilience for the entire global energy system.
