At the same time, the market is preparing for an event that could redefine the entire industry: Anthropic is moving towards an initial public offering (IPO) with a target valuation above $1 trillion. Against this backdrop, venture capital is increasingly flowing into "hard" technologies — energy for data centres, defence developments, and financial infrastructure. Below are the key events and trends in the venture market for Sunday, 16 August 2026.
- The Anthropic IPO reaches the final stretch. Following a confidential S-1 filing, the underwriting banks are holding meetings with institutional investors; a listing on Nasdaq is expected in the autumn.
- Record capital concentration. The six-month volume of venture investments at $510 billion is accompanied by unprecedented deal concentration around sector leaders in AI.
- Energy as the new AI trade. Billion-dollar rounds for Form Energy, Base Power, and Valar Atomics demonstrate that investors are financing the energy foundation for computing infrastructure.
- A boom in defence technologies. The European startup Helsing raised $1.8 billion, while drone and air taxi manufacturers are securing significant rounds amid a wave of defence budget re-equipment.
- Restructuring of fintech infrastructure. Banking and payment projects for the tech sector are rekindling interest from funds after the exit of niche players.
- Shift in capital geography. Gulf and Indian funds are increasing their activity, while American investors continue to reduce their presence in China.
The Anthropic IPO: a race for the first trillion on the public market
The central theme of the week for venture investors is Anthropic’s preparation for its initial public offering. The company confidentially submitted its S-1 project to the SEC on 1 June and subsequently closed a Series H round at $65 billion with a valuation of $965 billion, involving Sequoia Capital, Coatue, Fidelity, Blackstone, and strategic semiconductor partners — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Currently, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are conducting preliminary meetings with institutional investors: a public version of the prospectus is expected in August-September, while pricing is set for October-November on Nasdaq.
The secondary market is already pricing in a premium: the implied valuation of Anthropic on over-the-counter trading platforms exceeds $1.2 trillion, with an annual revenue (ARR) of about $70 billion. This offering is doubly important for the venture ecosystem: a successful debut would open a "window for exits" for the entire cohort of AI companies, while a weak debut could cool the overheated segment. OpenAI, which submitted its own S-1 a week later, is estimated to have shifted its listing to 2027, ceding the first-mover advantage to its competitor.
Record $510 billion: capital exists, but it is concentrated
Global venture investments in the first half of 2026 reached a historic high of around $510 billion. However, the structure of the market is causing concern among fund managers: a significant portion of capital has flowed into a limited number of mega-deals involving AI leaders. For companies outside the "magic circle", conditions are tougher — investors are demanding technology barriers, proven unit economics, and a clear path to revenue. The gap between "fundable companies" and "merely interesting ideas" continues to widen: universal AI products are replicated quickly, directing money towards projects with proprietary data, infrastructure, and unique distribution channels.
Energy and AI infrastructure: billions in "picks and shovels"
The largest rounds of the week reaffirm that energy is a direct continuation of AI investments amid record energy consumption by data centres.
- Form Energy raised $750 million in a Series G round led by T. Rowe Price, with participation from Sequoia Capital and Breakthrough Energy — the company is developing long-duration energy storage systems.
- Base Power from Austin closed a Series D at $1 billion with a valuation of $13 billion — a bet on home batteries in the context of overloaded US power grids.
- Valar Atomics secured $1 billion led by Sequoia Capital plus a $200 million credit line from a syndicate led by JPMorgan — nuclear energy is making a comeback on the venture agenda.
Particular attention should be given to the Swedish company Lovable: the "vibe-coding" platform confirmed a Series C round at $400 million with a valuation of $13.3 billion, solidifying its status as one of the fastest-growing European unicorns.
Defence technologies: a new mainstream for venture capital
The defence tech segment has definitively shifted from a niche status to the mainstream. European defence AI developer Helsing raised $1.8 billion with the participation of JPMorgan Chase, Lightspeed, and Iconiq — the largest round in the history of the European defence industry. Drone manufacturer Neros and electric air taxi developer Vertical Aerospace also closed significant deals. For funds, this represents a structural shift: the growth of NATO defence budgets and demand for autonomous systems are creating a multi-year order cycle that venture investors are eager to monetize at early stages.
Fintech infrastructure: the market builds out the "banking layer"
Following the collapse of niche banks, investors are funding a new generation of financial infrastructure for startups. The Ohio-based banking project Erebor, aimed at servicing tech companies, is negotiating to raise around $1.5 billion with participation from Lux Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Valor Equity Partners. Restaurant financing platform inKind closed a $414 million credit line from Citi and Cross River Bank. The essence of the trend is clear: banks that understand the cash cycles and risks of startups are becoming a strategic asset for the entire ecosystem.
Capital geography: the Gulf and India versus shrinking China
The map of global venture flows continues to be reshaped. The sovereign fund MGX from Abu Dhabi has closed its first fund at $49 billion — exceeding its target of $45 billion — and is building the largest AI campus in Europe near Paris with a capacity of 3 GW. In India, Mirae Asset conducted its first closing of a venture fund at ₹11.25 billion, while Chennai-based Bluehill.VC fully raised its debut fund at ₹4 billion focusing on frontier tech. The opposite vector is China: American SIG is winding down its venture team SIG Asia, which operated for over 20 years, continuing the trend set by Sequoia and GGV to exit the region.
Russia and the CIS: the market contracts but changes structure
The Russian venture market is moving against the global trend. In the first half of 2026, the volume of investments decreased by approximately 39-48% year on year — to ₽4.6-5.2 billion, with the number of deals falling almost by half, reaching levels of the crisis year 2023. The main reason is the high key rate, which causes deposits to compete with long risky investments. At the same time, the median cheque increased by 23% to ₽25 million: investors are investing less frequently, but in larger amounts. An unexpected leader by sectors is industrial technologies, which showed a 58% growth and surpassed business software. Moscow concentrates up to 80% of all investments, highlighting the need for regional startup ecosystem development programmes.
Outlook for investors: discipline in an era of records
The venture market is entering autumn 2026 in a state of paradoxical equilibrium: record liquidity coexists with maximum selectivity. Key benchmarks for funds in the coming weeks are:
- the publication of Anthropic's open S-1 and book-building parameters — the primary indicator of public market appetite for frontier AI;
- the dynamics of rounds in energy and defence technologies as a test of the sustainability of the capital rotation from "pure" AI into infrastructure;
- the behaviour of late-stage investors following the correction of SpaceX — a test of the overvaluation of the pre-IPO segment.
The base scenario is continued growth with increasing concentration: capital will be directed towards companies with technological barriers, real revenue, and a clear exit trajectory. For venture funds, this is a time for discipline: market records do not negate the necessity for rigorous deal selection.
