Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of 28 December 2025: Hopes for a Peaceful Settlement Strengthen, Oil and Gas Prices Rise, India Increases Imports, China Boosts Production, Russia Implements Measures to Stabilise Domestic Fuel Markets. A Comprehensive Review of the Global Fuel and Energy Complex.
As we near the end of 2025, global energy markets are signalling mixed messages for investors and industry participants. Negotiations for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine are instilling cautious optimism regarding the potential easing of sanctions on the Russian energy sector, but a breakthrough in agreements remains a distant prospect—with uncertainty still prevalent. At the same time, the sanctions regime is still in effect: in November, Washington intensified restrictions, extending sanctions to deals with Russia's largest oil companies, compelling the market to adapt to new conditions.
The global oil market, having faced significant price declines throughout the year due to oversupply and slowing demand, is showing signs of stabilisation by the end of December. After four months of decline, prices have turned upward—benchmark Brent crude has risen from around $60 to $62–63 per barrel, while WTI has approached $58–59. The weekly increase stood at about 3%, although oil prices have decreased approximately 16% over the year. Geopolitical factors (a drone attack on an oil terminal in Novorossiysk and military risks in Nigeria) have provided support for prices, as has OPEC+'s decision to maintain production limits for the first quarter of 2026 instead of the planned increase in quotas.
The European gas market commenced the winter season with record levels in underground storage facilities, which drove exchange prices down to a year-low (around $330 per thousand cubic metres in early December). However, the Christmas cold has stimulated demand: during the holiday period, gas withdrawals from UGS facilities reached record levels, and quotes at the TTF hub rebounded to around $345 per thousand m3 (approximately €28/MWh). Despite high resource availability, the European market remains sensitive to weather risks. EU countries have virtually abandoned Russian pipeline gas (the share from Russia has dropped to about 13% of imports) and are focusing on LNG—new deals are being made with the USA and the Middle East, and infrastructure for gas reception is being strengthened. Consequently, current gas prices, although significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, may rise again during prolonged cold spells.
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum. Many countries are recording new records in electricity generation from renewable sources: the total capacity of solar and wind power plants commissioned in 2025 has exceeded figures from any previous year. According to industry analysts, for the first half of 2025, renewable energy generation has surpassed coal generation for the first time in history. Investments in green energy are also at record highs (estimated to exceed $2 trillion in 2025); however, they remain predominantly concentrated in developed economies and China. In order to ensure reliable energy systems, many governments are reluctant to completely abandon traditional hydrocarbons: coal and gas-fired power plants remain critically important for meeting peak demand and balancing the grid, especially during periods when renewable energy sources cannot provide sufficient generation.
In Russia, after a sharp spike in gasoline and diesel prices during the autumn, authorities implemented a series of operational measures aimed at normalising the situation in the domestic fuel market. The government temporarily restricted fuel product exports, increased sales quotas on the exchange, and adjusted the subsidy dampener mechanism to channel additional volumes into the domestic market. These steps yielded tangible results: wholesale prices for automotive fuel began to decline. For example, the exchange price for AI-95 gasoline in mid-December dipped nearly 10% compared to peak values in the autumn. The supply situation at petrol stations is stable, with the fuel shortage in the regions eliminated. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and fuel segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices Rise Amid Limited Supply
Global oil prices moderately increased over the past week after a prolonged period of decline and are generally remaining relatively stable under the influence of fundamental factors. North Sea Brent has stabilised within the range of $60–63 per barrel, while American WTI rests around $57–59. Current levels are still approximately 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction following the price peaks of previous years. The dynamics of the oil market are influenced by several factors:
- OPEC+ Production Policy: To combat oversupply, OPEC+ member states decided against the previously planned increase in production. Quotas for the first quarter of 2026 have been maintained at December 2025 levels, with several major exporters (including Saudi Arabia) continuing to voluntarily limit production. These measures are intended to prevent overproduction and support prices, but they also lead to a reduced market share for OPEC+.
- Increased Production Outside OPEC: Independent producers have ramped up shipments. In the USA, oil production has reached historic highs of about 13 million barrels per day, thanks to a shale boom, with an increase in the export of oil products. Other countries outside OPEC have also taken advantage of the high prices of previous years to boost production, thereby intensifying market competition and creating surplus oil inventories.
- Slowing Demand Growth: Global oil demand growth in 2025 has been significantly slower than during the post-pandemic recovery. According to the IEA, demand growth was only about 0.7 million barrels per day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even the predictions from OPEC were revised down to around 1.3 million b/d. Reasons include weak global economic growth and the impact of high prices from previous years prompting energy conservation measures. Another factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China, which has limited the appetite of the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: The situation on the global stage continues to maintain a level of uncertainty. Deteriorating situations in the Middle East and Africa periodically threaten supplies: for instance, US strikes against radical groups in oil-producing Nigeria and attacks on tankers carrying Venezuelan oil have heightened fears of supply disruptions. On the other hand, the prospect of a peaceful agreement regarding Ukraine has generated hopes for the easing of some sanctions on Russia and an increase in its exports. While this has yet to materialise, the impact of sanctions remains: Russia is selling oil at a significant discount (Urals averaged about $40/barrel in December, substantially lower than Brent), utilising alternative sales markets and a "shadow fleet" of tankers to circumvent embargoes.
Gas Market: Winter Demand Drives Prices Upwards
The gas market is currently focused on Europe. Entering winter with storage facilities filled to over 90%, the EU enjoyed relative price respite in the autumn: early December saw spot gas prices dip to approximately $330 per thousand cubic metres—the lowest level since mid-2024. However, the cold snap at the end of the month has led to increased consumption: during the holidays, European UGS facilities experienced significant gas withdrawals, although buffer stocks remain high (at the end of December, storage was over 75% full). Prices reacted with moderate increases, but they remain significantly below the crisis peaks seen in previous winters.
European countries continue to diversify their sources of gas. The share of Russian gas in EU imports has plummeted to historical lows, and even after a potential resolution to the conflict, Brussels intends to maintain restrictions on supplies from Russia. LNG shipments to the European market are increasing—major energy companies are signing new contracts for American and Qatari LNG, and certain Eastern European countries have started receiving gas from Azerbaijan and North Africa.
At the same time, demand in Asia remains a significant factor. In China, LNG imports rose by nearly 11% in October compared to last year, buoyed by an industrial upturn following the lifting of quarantine restrictions, whereas India, conversely, reduced its LNG purchases by 11% (mainly due to high prices and power stations switching to coal). Nonetheless, overall global gas consumption in 2025 increased—according to Gazprom, by 25 billion cubic metres—driven by economic recovery and expanding gasification in developing countries. Russia, having lost a substantial portion of the European market, has reoriented its exports: pipeline supplies to China via the "Power of Siberia" reached 38.8 billion cubic metres in 2025 (a record volume close to project capacity), and exports of Russian LNG to European countries (e.g., Belgium) even increased due to the absence of formal prohibitions on liquefied gas.
International Politics: Peace Talks Inspire Hopes for Easing Sanctions
In the realm of foreign policy, the end of the year was marked by an intensification of dialogue among key global players about the Ukrainian crisis. In mid-December, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed details of negotiations with the USA during a business meeting, stating that he was prepared for "certain territorial compromises" in exchange for securing control over the entire Donbass region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on his part, stated that "a lot can be resolved" before the New Year—he held a series of consultations with representatives of the US administration in anticipation of a possible meeting with President Donald Trump.
These peaceful signals are fuelling investor optimism for a gradual normalisation of relations and a potential cancellation of some sanctions imposed on Russia. The prospect of signing a peace agreement has already impacted market sentiment: traders are factoring in the possibility of an easing of restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports in the event of a sustainable ceasefire. However, uncertainty remains high. Until concrete agreements are reached, Western countries are continuing their course of sanction pressure. Washington has previously signalled its readiness to expand energy sanctions if Moscow drags its feet in negotiations, while the European Union has agreed to impose a total embargo on Russian gas immediately following the cessation of hostilities. Thus, the further "thawing" of Russian fuel exports largely depends on the outcome of political dialogue in the upcoming weeks.
Asia: India Increases Imports Amid Pressure, China Hits Production Records
- India: Faced with unprecedented pressure from the West (for example, Washington raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50%), New Delhi is not inclined to abandon advantageous imports of Russian raw materials. In December, the volume of oil supplies from Russia to India is estimated at more than 1.2 million barrels per day (down from a record of 1.77 million b/d in November), as Indian refineries raced to contract supplies before the new US sanctions against "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" came into effect on November 21. Recent negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi reaffirmed the intention to maintain energy cooperation between the countries despite external pressures.
- China: Beijing is focusing on increasing its own energy production and infrastructure. In 2025, oil production in China reached record levels of approximately 215 million tonnes (around 4.3 million b/d), and gas production also reached new highs. At the same time, China is investing in expanding refining and electricity generation; the launch of new fields and generating capacities allows for a partial reduction in dependency on imports. Nevertheless, China remains the world’s largest importer of energy resources—it continues to purchase substantial quantities of oil (including at favourable prices from Russia) and LNG to meet demand. The slowdown of the Chinese economy in 2025 has slightly cooled the growth of domestic energy consumption, but the country remains a key driver of demand in the global market.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in Renewables Amid Retaining Role of Traditional Energy
The development of renewable energy sources (RES) in 2025 set new benchmarks. New solar and wind power plants were commissioned globally, increasing the share of "green" generation. Throughout the year, approximately 750 GW of new RES capacity was added—more than ever before. As a result, renewable energy supplied over 50% of electricity generation in certain countries during specific periods. At the same time, there is a boom in investments in clean energy: their volume is estimated to have surpassed $2 trillion for the year.
However, despite these impressive achievements, the transition to clean energy faces objective challenges. Demand for electricity continues to grow as economies recover, and traditional sources—gas, coal, nuclear energy—remain necessary for stable energy supply. In 2025, the global carbon footprint of the energy sector reached a new peak, with fossil fuels still accounting for about 80% of global energy consumption. During peak load periods or adverse weather conditions (when solar and wind are insufficient), systems must rely on coal and gas-fired power plants to prevent rolling blackouts. Governments acknowledge the importance of energy security and accessibility as a top priority: for instance, in Europe and the USA, subsidies for the production of key RES equipment have been implemented, yet strategic reserves of oil and gas continue to be maintained for crisis situations. Thus, 2025 demonstrated progress in decarbonisation while confirming that traditional energy will continue to play a significant role in the global balance for the foreseeable future.
Coal: Market Stability Amid High Demand
Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, the coal sector in 2025 maintained robust positions due to steady demand. According to the IEA, global coal consumption reached a record 8.8 billion tonnes per year—approximately 0.5% more than the previous year. The primary growth was driven by Asian countries: China and India continue to burn about two-thirds of all coal globally for electricity generation and steel production. In Southeast Asia and Africa, the construction of new coal-fired power plants continues, as coal remains one of the most accessible fuels.
Coal prices stabilised in 2025 following periods of sharp fluctuations in 2022–2023. In key Asian markets (such as Australia and Indonesia), the price of thermal coal hovers around $140–150 per tonne, which is lower than the peaks observed during the 2022 crisis but comfortable for producers. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—are maintaining high production levels, satisfying the needs of importers. Meanwhile, developed countries in the West continue to reduce coal use: in Europe, coal generation in 2025 decreased at double-digit rates due to the rise of RES and environmental regulations. However, the global decline in Europe is counterbalanced by increases elsewhere. Thus, the coal market remains in equilibrium: supply is sufficient to meet high demand, and although the long-term trend gradually shifts towards cleaner energy sources, coal will remain an important part of the global energy balance in the coming years.
Russian Oil Product Market: Operational Measures to Stabilise Fuel Prices
The domestic market for oil products in Russia experienced unprecedented price fluctuations in 2025. The sharp increase in gasoline and diesel prices during the summer and autumn posed a threat to the transport sector and fuelled inflation. In response, the Russian government took stringent measures to protect the market: bans and quotas on the export of automotive fuel were introduced, sales quotas on the Saint Petersburg exchange were increased, and budget subsidies (dampener) were adjusted to provide additional support to refineries supplying products to the domestic market. These measures, together with the completion of scheduled repairs at refineries, allowed for an increase in fuel supply within the country.
By the beginning of winter, the situation had stabilised. Wholesale prices on the exchange decreased, soon reflecting on retail prices. According to the Saint Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, by mid-December, the quotes for "Premium-95" gasoline had dropped by approximately 10% from the September peak. Diesel prices also reverted to levels seen earlier in the year. Retail petrol stations across the country report improvements in resource availability, with fuel shortages eliminated even in remote regions. Authorities have stated their readiness to extend export restrictions if necessary to curb domestic prices and are considering implementing a permanent regulatory mechanism—for example, pegging fuel prices to export alternatives with compensation for refineries. As a result of these measures, the fuel crisis has been mitigated, and the Russian oil product market enters 2026 in a relatively balanced state.
