Global Energy Market Overview: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal and Renewables on 10 September 2026
Key Topic of the Day: Brent above $100 – Attacks on Tankers and Tehran's Response
Oil prices are rising for the fourth consecutive session, driven by direct military escalation in the Persian Gulf. The US Central Command reported the destruction of five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island in response to attempts to attack American vessels; the Pentagon stated that a total of ten ships from the "shadow fleet" have been taken out of action in just one week. Iran has claimed responsibility for strikes on the Muwaffaq Salti base in Jordan (with 18 missiles intercepted), attacks on two US Navy destroyers, and actions against ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO maritime service recorded an impact on a tanker near Iraq's Al-Faw and damage to a vessel near Port Rashid in the UAE.
A key threat to shipping is the "no-go zone" declared by Tehran beyond the strait, where Iranian forces intend to stop vessels without permission. For traders and insurers, this implies further increases in war risk premiums and a reduced number of shipowners willing to enter the region. In response, Washington has expanded its sanctions campaign against Iranian aviation, while Seoul is considering participation in securing the strait.
Oil Market: Prices, Dynamics and Forecasts
Market benchmarks for oil on Thursday morning are as follows:
- Brent (November, ICE): peak on Wednesday $100.19 per barrel, first above $100 since 24 July; then consolidated around $99.7–100.5.
- WTI (October, NYMEX): around $94.7, an increase of approximately 2% over the session.
- Dynamics: since 31 August, Brent has gained approximately 13.5%, with nearly a 40% rise since the onset of the war with Iran in late February; the peak in April exceeded $125.
- Forecasts: Goldman Sachs anticipates $120 if attacks on vessels in the Hormuz and Red Seas escalate, and a return to $80 if exports normalise; ING expects a sustained significant risk premium until negotiations restart.
The fundamental backdrop remains deficit-driven. According to EIA estimates, global oil supplies fell by 4.2 million barrels per day in Q2 and a further 3.8 million barrels per day in Q3; transit through Hormuz in Q2 averaged just 4.9 million barrels per day compared to 21.6 million prior to the conflict. The August forecast from the agency — $85 per barrel in Q3 and $78 in Q4 — appears outdated given current price levels, and the September STEO release, published on 9 September, will benchmark the market against the reality of "hundreds." The US strategic reserve sits at approximately 286.6 million barrels, limiting Washington's capacity to dampen price shocks through intervention.
The Middle East: Double Blockade of Saudi Arabia
A second front of risk is the Red Sea. The Houthis struck targets in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan, and Najran on 8 September: 73 individuals were injured, and fires broke out at Aramco's refinery in Jizan, with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day. Simultaneously, the movement announced a campaign to control Bab-el-Mandeb. The issue for oil supplies is that after the closure of Hormuz, the Red Sea has become the primary artery for the kingdom: the East-West pipeline operates at a record 7 million barrels per day, and the Yanbu terminal accounts for over 90% of Saudi oil exports by sea. The defence pact between Riyadh and Turkey along with Pakistan has not alleviated the threat to infrastructure. Any disruption at Yanbu would mean the largest exporter would be out of the market during the closure of both straits.
Gas Market: TTF Above $950, Storage Levels at 2011 Minimum
The European gas market is moving counter to seasonal logic. October futures on TTF reached €78.8/MWh (around $970 per thousand cubic metres) on 9 September, increasing by nearly 4% in one day; prices have risen by approximately 120% since the beginning of the year. Key parameters include:
- EU Storage Levels — 66.9% as of 7 September, approximately 71.7 billion cubic metres; the lowest for this time of year in history since 2011, and 13.8 billion cubic metres less than last year's level.
- Germany — about 53%, the poorest showing among major economies; Italy is the only large market near a comfortable 80%+ level.
- Target Norm — 90% in the window from 1 October to 1 December with a tolerance of 10 percentage points; since April, only about 62% of necessary volumes have been injected.
Following the Gas Coordination Group on 3 September, the European Commission stated that there is no immediate threat to supply security and sees no grounds for intervention, citing diversification, regasification capacities, and reduced demand. Nonetheless, LNG production in Qatar remains halted, and Europe is forced to compete with Asia for tankers at peak prices. For the EU's industry, this indicates entry into the heating season with the highest injection costs in four years.
LNG and Coal: Gas Deficit Supports Coal Generation
The deficit of LNG in 2026 is estimated at around 35 million tonnes, prompting import-dependent Southeast Asian countries to increase coal generation: in South Korea it has risen by nearly 40%, and in Japan by more than 11%. Global demand for coal may increase by about 3%, approaching 9.1 billion tonnes. This presents an unexpected window of demand for coal exporters — Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa — contrary to the long-term decarbonisation trend.
China and Asia: Oil Imports Recovering from Decade Low
Customs statistics from China for August indicated a second consecutive month of growth: oil imports totalled 37.93 million tonnes (8.93 million barrels per day), a rise of 6.2% from July, yet still 23.4% lower year-on-year; in the first eight months, purchases decreased by 14.6%. Chinese refineries are actively increasing purchases of Russian ESPO oil, circumventing Hormuz and exploring atypical markets, including Argentina. Diesel exports soared by 29% to 6 million tonnes amidst a global diesel shortage, while domestic demand for gasoline and diesel remains 8–9% below last year's levels. The rate of inventory decline has slowed to 550,000 barrels per day, indicating a gradual return of Beijing to the spot market.
Russia: Urals Discount, Exports, and the Second Wave of Fuel Crisis
The high Brent price partially offsets the extended discount for Russian companies: following the expiration of the US licence for transactions involving Russian oil, the Urals discount reached $23–24 per barrel during summer, with the annual average estimated at $17–22. The domestic oil product market remains in crisis mode:
- Exchange sales of gasoline from 1–4 September surged by 69% compared to August to 72,750 tonnes, but by 7 September dropped to 12,240 tonnes due to unscheduled refinery repairs;
- The unsatisfied solvent demand stands at 37,700 tonnes for AI-92 and 35,300 tonnes for AI-95; since May, only about 41% of exchange contracts have been fulfilled;
- Since the beginning of the year, 5.44 million tonnes of gasoline have been sold on the exchange — 23.7% less than last year;
- The gasoline export ban has been extended until 31 January 2027, and the Ministry of Energy is discussing restricting diesel exports during repair periods and seasonal demand, with imports initiated from India.
Electricity Sector and Renewables: Structural Trend Does Not Change
Against the backdrop of the commodity shock, the energy transition is accelerating. According to Ember, in 2025, renewable sources will for the first time outstrip coal in global generation (33.8% versus 33.0%), and in May 2026, solar power first exceeded coal in the US energy balance (12.8% versus 12.2%). Africa is heading toward a record year with a 45% increase in solar capacity installations. Global electricity demand in 2026 is expected to grow by 3.6% due to electric transport, air conditioning, and data centres for AI. For investors in renewables, energy storage and networks, expensive gas acts not as a brake but as an additional argument for investment.
Thursday's Calendar: OPEC, EIA, and US Inflation
10 September is one of the busiest days of the month for participants in the energy market. OPEC publishes its monthly report with updated estimates of demand and production, which will indicate how the cartel is assessing the decline in consumption in Asia. Due to the holiday schedule, the EIA is releasing weekly oil and oil product inventory statistics on Thursday — after a series of reductions in US commercial stocks below a five-year low, this data is critical for WTI. The US Producer Price Index for August will be released, and on Friday, the IEA report and consumer inflation figures that influence the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve are expected. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 4 October; October quotas remain unchanged.
Conclusions and Risks for Investors and Energy Companies
- Oil. The stability of Brent above $100 hinges on whether attacks on tankers escalate into a full closure of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb; the range of scenarios for the quarter lies between $80 and $120.
- Gas. Europe enters winter with historically low storage levels; a cold November or a new LNG supply disruption could push TTF back into four-digit territory.
- Coal and Refineries. The gas and diesel deficit supports margins in coal generation and refining, but concentrates profits in regions outside the conflict zone.
- Russia. High oil prices mitigate budget risks; however, the domestic fuel market remains vulnerable until refinery repairs are completed.
- Renewables. Renewable energy remains the only predictable element of the global energy balance and the primary focus for long-term investment.
The day's takeaway for the global energy sector: the short-term price of oil and gas is dictated by the military logic of the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, the medium-term by Europe's and Asia's capability to endure winter with nearly empty storage, and the long-term by the speed of the energy transition. In this context, scenario planning, logistics diversification, and hedging discipline become conditions for survival rather than options for participants in the energy market.
