Key themes shaping the agenda for venture investors and funds on 16 October 2026 include:
- Third Quarter Results. Capital is concentrating in mega-rounds, with AI's share of global venture financing approaching two-thirds.
- New Decacorns in AI Infrastructure. Modal Labs and Applied Intuition are demonstrating exponential growth in valuations over a few months.
- Preparation for Anthropic's IPO. The market is awaiting the public S-1 filing, with the timing influencing the November offering window.
- European Deep Tech. Photonics, energy storage, and government funds support the region's best quarter in four years.
- Early Stages. Seed rounds of $50–60 million are becoming the norm for teams with strong technological foundations.
Venture Market in Q3 2026: Less Money, More Mega-Rounds
According to Crunchbase, global venture funding in Q3 2026 totalled $159 billion. Approximately 6,000 startups received funding. This is a 25% decrease from the record $212 billion in Q2, but a 53% increase compared to the previous year. Over nine months, venture investments reached $679 billion, marking a historic high for this period.
The market structure has changed more significantly than its volume:
- Record Mega-Rounds. 27 companies raised $1 billion or more, compared to 16 in Q2 and 14 in Q1. These deals accounted for roughly one third of the quarterly capital.
- AI Domination. Startups in the artificial intelligence sector secured $102 billion, or 64% of global venture funding.
- Quarter Leaders. Databricks and Safe Superintelligence each raised $5 billion, while another six companies secured at least $3 billion each.
- Early Stages on the Rise. Early-stage funding increased by 25% year-on-year to $40.6 billion, with seed rounds totalling $13 billion.
Concentration is also evident on the fund side. According to PitchBook and NVCA, in the first half of the year, Andreessen Horowitz, Thrive Capital, and Founders Fund accounted for 48.1% of all capital raised by US venture funds. New fund formation has been declining to a minimum since 2016.
AI Infrastructure: Modal Labs Triples Valuation and Joins the Decacorn Club
The most discussed deal of the week is Modal Labs' funding round. The New York-based provider of server infrastructure for inference has closed a $750 million round led by Accel at a valuation of $15.75 billion. Just in May, the company was valued at $4.65 billion in a Series C round of $355 million. Thus, its valuation has more than tripled in roughly four months.
The logic of investors is clear:
- Modal's annual revenue exceeded $300 million as early as spring;
- demand is driven by AI agents and programming tools that require isolated code execution environments;
- the pay-as-you-go model for actual computation time suits the uneven inference loads.
This deal confirms a thesis increasingly built into investment strategies by funds: in 2026, the fastest revaluation is happening at the "shovels and picks" level of the AI agents economy.
Autonomous Systems and Defence Technologies: Applied Intuition Valued at $30 Billion
Software developer for autonomous transport, Applied Intuition, has received investment proposals valuing the company at no less than $30 billion. This is double the $15 billion level recorded in its Series F round. An additional round of over $1 billion is possible in the coming months.
Key parameters for investors include:
- the company collaborates with 18 of the 20 largest global car manufacturers;
- a $30 billion valuation corresponds to approximately 36 times annual revenue based on projected regular revenue of $830 million for 2025;
- the multiplier growth is linked to an entry into military and rugged autonomy, where Applied Intuition competes with Anduril and Saronic.
In the same segment, Fortastra raised $30 million in a Series A round for manoeuvrable spacecraft for orbital security. Unmanned delivery developer Rino.ai closed a Series C round at $100 million.
Anthropic IPO: The Market Awaits Public S-1
The main question for the public offering market is the timing of Anthropic’s IPO. The company confidentially submitted its S-1 draft on 1 June, shortly after a Series H round at a valuation of $965 billion. According to business press, Nasdaq has been selected as the venue, and the target window has shifted from October to November, allowing investors to see the results of the third quarter.
If marketing for the offering commences during the week of 9 November, the public version of the prospectus should be released by the end of October. The valuation benchmarks being discussed in the market are reaching $2 trillion. For venture funds, this deal is significant for three reasons:
- it will set a standard for financial disclosure across the entire AI sector;
- it will serve as a test for late-stage valuations in the private market;
- a successful listing could open the window for exits for other major AI companies.
Asia: Manus Raises $500 Million Following Deal Cancellation with Meta
AI agent developer Manus (the parent company of Butterfly Effect) has raised over $500 million. This is the first round since Chinese authorities forced Meta to abandon its acquisition of the startup for approximately $2 billion. The round was led by Boyu Capital and IDG Capital, with participation from Tencent, HSG, and ZhenFund. The valuation remains undisclosed, but earlier reports indicated a figure of around $4 billion. The company is also considering an IPO in Hong Kong.
This deal illustrates that the regulatory risks of cross-border M&A in the AI sector do not diminish local investors' appetite for agent platforms.
Europe: Deep Tech, Photonics, and Government Funds
European startups raised around $25 billion in the third quarter. This marks the region’s best performance in four years, representing a 77% year-on-year increase. October deals reaffirm the shift towards deep technologies:
- Skeleton Technologies (Estonia) secured a nine-figure strategic investment from Siemens and entered the “unicorn” club. The company will allocate over $200 million for expansion and R&D in Silicon Valley to meet the needs of AI data centres.
- Salience Labs (Oxford) raised $125 million for optical switches that connect thousands of GPUs using light.
- Rabot Energy closed a $50 million Series B round to turn home batteries into a virtual power plant.
- British Business Bank supported Entrepreneurs First, Headline, and Evantic in a £180 million programme for AI funds.
Seed and Early Rounds: New Normal for Cheques
Early-stage ventures are becoming increasingly capital-intensive. Among notable deals from recent days:
- Hone — a seed round of $60 million from Benchmark and Index Ventures, valuing the company at $285 million, focusing on autonomous AI agents responsible for business outcomes;
- Sabi — seed funding of $50 million led by Khosla Ventures for a wearable neurointerface;
- Oratomic — $475 million Series B for fault-tolerant quantum computers;
- Arena — $200 million Series B round at a valuation of $3.1 billion from Lightspeed and Khosla Ventures, almost double its January valuation;
- Multiply Labs — $75 million Series B from Lux Capital for the robotisation of pharmaceutical production;
- Matchpoint Therapeutics — $150 million Series B for “molecular glue”-based drugs.
Fintech also remains active. Valon Technologies raised $150 million at a valuation of $2.3 billion, Capitolis secured $120 million in a Series E round, and Spiko raised $90 million in a Series B round.
Russia: Cautious Market and Focus on Corporate Demand
The Russian venture market is moving against the global trend. According to the Moscow Venture Fund, in the first half of 2026, the volume of venture investments decreased by 48% to 4.6 billion roubles, while the number of deals fell by 45% to 54. High returns on risk-free instruments divert capital from startups, leading funding to primarily favour B2B projects with clear revenue streams and corporate customers.
Support infrastructure is, however, expanding:
- The Moscow Venture Fund will allocate 250 million roubles to technology companies and aims to attract around 1 billion roubles in co-investments;
- FRII has launched a fund of 300 million roubles for startups in the information security sector.
What Investors Should Monitor Next Week
- Publication of Anthropic's S-1. The timing of the filing will be a key indicator for the IPO market for tech companies.
- Closure of Applied Intuition’s round. The outcomes will demonstrate whether the market is willing to pay a premium for dual-use autonomy.
- Money20/20 USA (18–21 October). The conference is expected to unveil new fintech deals and partnerships.
- Oslo Innovation Week (19–23 October). A platform for announcements related to Scandinavian climate and deep tech ventures.
The venture market of 2026 is operating on the principle of “fewer deals — larger cheques.” Capital is rapidly reassessing AI infrastructure, while mega-rounds and preparations for major IPOs are forming a new system of benchmarks for valuations. For venture investors and funds, discipline is becoming paramount: revenue, multiples, and a realistic path to exit are more important than the size of announced rounds.
