Venture Market in Mid-October 2026: Record Capital Volumes, High Concentration in AI, Major Rounds of the Week, IPO Preparations, and Signals for Funds and Investors

Venture investment in 2026 is on track for a historical record, but the market is becoming increasingly uneven. Capital is concentrating in a small group of companies associated with artificial intelligence. The past week confirmed this trend: the largest rounds were secured by cloud AI infrastructure, fintech with AI products, and developers of AI agents. Meanwhile, the market is discussing the quality of revenues from AI startups and the sustainability of infrastructure built on debt financing. Below are key events for venture investors and funds.

Macroeconomic Landscape: Record Year Amidst Declining Quarterly Dynamics

According to Crunchbase, global venture investments in the third quarter of 2026 reached $159 billion. Approximately 6,000 startups received funding. The quarterly volume decreased by 25% compared to the second quarter ($212 billion) but increased by 53% year-on-year. Over the first nine months, startups raised $679 billion, the highest for the same period in recorded history.

• AI Share: $102 billion, or 64% of global venture capital for the quarter.
• Megrounds: 27 companies secured rounds of $1 billion or more. This is an absolute record: there were 16 such companies in the second quarter and 14 in the first quarter.
• Geography: US startups accounted for $91 billion (57%), with the San Francisco Bay Area capturing 24% of the global volume.
• Stages: Later rounds — $105 billion (+73% year-on-year), early rounds — $40.6 billion (+25%).

American statistics from PitchBook and NVCA show a similar trend. From January to September, the volume of venture deals in the US reached $515.8 billion, with 82.7% dedicated to AI companies. Around 90% of funds went to rounds of $50 million or more. For non-AI startups, the market record hardly expands access to financing.

Main Theme of the Week: AI Infrastructure Attracts Megarounds

The most notable transaction of the week was the $750 million Series D round for California-based cloud platform Modal, with a post-money valuation of $15.75 billion. The round was led by Accel, with participation from Kleiner Perkins, Menlo Ventures, General Catalyst, Redpoint, Lux Capital, and others. The company reported that its annual revenue run rate exceeded $1 billion, with platform usage tripling since May.

Investors are funding not only computing but also associated segments of AI infrastructure:

1. Salience Labs (Oxford) raised $125 million in a Series B round led by Bullhound Capital, with participation from AMD Ventures and Intel Capital. The company is developing optical switches for GPU clusters.
2. Skeleton Technologies (Estonia) secured strategic investments led by Siemens, reportedly exceeding $100 million. The company became a "unicorn" and is building manufacturing facilities for supercapacitors in the US.
3. Labelbox announced a Series E funding of over $100 million, including a credit line. The funds will support reinforcement learning and corporate AI agents.
4. Tamr raised $21 million in growth investments from Volition Capital for corporate data management for AI systems.

The public market, however, is sending a warning signal. On October 14, shares of AI cloud company CoreWeave plummeted amid concerns over borrowing costs and the sustainability of infrastructure built on debt. For venture funds, this serves as an argument to differentiate between companies with confirmed demand and projects whose returns depend on future capacity utilisation.

Fintech: Ramp Increased Valuation by $16 Billion in Four Months

According to Bloomberg, fintech platform Ramp raised approximately $1.85 billion at a pre-investment valuation of around $60 billion. The round was led by Dragoneer and Thrive Capital, with a significant cheque from Founders Fund. In June, the company raised $750 million at a valuation of $44 billion. Ramp serves over 70,000 companies, and its annual revenue reportedly exceeded $1.5 billion as of last summer. The company has not commented on the round.

This transaction underscores the consolidation in the corporate expense management segment. Ramp's closest competitor, Brex, has come under the control of Capital One this year. Ramp is enhancing the AI components of its products, directly supporting its valuation.

AI Agents and Geopolitics: Manus Raised Over $500 Million

Butterfly Effect, the parent company of AI agent developer Manus, closed a round of over $500 million. Co-investors included Boyu Capital and IDG Capital, with participation from Tencent, HSG, and ZhenFund. This is the first funding since Beijing forced Meta to cancel its deal for acquiring Manus for over $2 billion. The valuation has not been disclosed, although prior reports indicated negotiations at around $4 billion.

The Manus case illustrates that regulatory risk in cross-border AI deals has become a distinct item of due diligence. Investors need to consider not only the technology but also the jurisdiction, capital structure, and the possibility of exit via a strategic sale.

Deep Tech, Biotech, and Defence: Capital for Long Cycles

Aside from AI, venture funds continue to finance capital-intensive technologies with a long payback horizon:

• OMass Therapeutics (Oxford) raised $310 million in a heavily oversubscribed Series C round. The round was led by Bain Capital Life Sciences, Forbion, and Novo Holdings. The funds will be used for clinical research of drugs for endocrinology and immunology.
• Oratomic closed a Series B round of $475 million for the development of fault-tolerant quantum computers.
• Sabi received $50 million in seed funding led by Khosla Ventures. The company is creating a wearable "brain-AI" interface.
• Fortastra raised $30 million in a Series A round for maneuverable spacecraft to protect orbital infrastructure.
• Tessolve Semiconductor (India) secured $75 million from Vector Line Capital for international expansion through acquisitions.

Funds and LPs: OrbiMed Raised $3 Billion

The funding side also remains active. Healthcare-focused investor OrbiMed announced the raising of $3 billion across two funds. OrbiMed Private Investments X secured over $1.9 billion for venture deals in life sciences in the US and Europe. OrbiMed Asia Partners VI raised over $1 billion for growth and venture investments in Asia. In the US, according to PitchBook–NVCA, emerging managers have closed 81 first-time funds totalling $4.9 billion since the beginning of the year. The appeal to LPs continues to favour large and established teams.

IPO Window: DayOne Files for IPO, Anthropic Refines Timelines

The public offering market remains the primary channel for capital return for venture funds. This week:

1. Singapore-based AI data centre operator DayOne Data Centers filed for an IPO on Nasdaq under the ticker DODC. The underwriters are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, BofA Securities, and Citigroup.
2. According to media reports, Anthropic may commence its roadshow in the week of November 9, approximately a month later than initially planned. The expected valuation is $1.8–2 trillion. The company has not officially confirmed the timeline.
3. The example of SpaceX, the largest IPO in history (June 2026, valuation $1.77 trillion), serves as a reminder of volatility post-listing. Reports indicate that by the end of July, the company's shares had lost about half of their peak value.

Russia and CIS: Market Contracts, Focus on Strategics

The Russian venture market is moving against the global trend. According to a report by the Moscow Venture Fund, in the first half of 2026, investors contributed 4.6 billion roubles, nearly 48% less year-on-year. The capital deficit is exacerbated by a stringent monetary policy. Investors are focusing on robotics, IT, and artificial intelligence. The primary exit scenario is the sale of stakes to strategic investors rather than IPOs. The Moscow Venture Fund has announced the allocation of 250 million roubles to technology companies, expecting about 1 billion roubles in co-investments.

Risks and Takeaways for Venture Investors

Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of Social Capital, pointed out the problem of "revenue quality" in AI. He suggests that a significant portion of AI companies' revenues comes from other AI startups, which themselves rely on venture funding. For funds, this leads to several practical conclusions:

• Distinguish between run-rate and ARR. An annual revenue run rate in consumption-based infrastructure is not equal to contractually recurring revenue.
• Analyse the deal structure. The headline amount of the round may include credit lines and secondary sales of shares.
• Consider customer concentration. Dependence on venture-funded AI companies creates a chain of reciprocal risks.
• Factor in regulatory risk. The Manus case shows that an exit via a sale may be blocked at the state level.
• Diversify beyond AI. Biotech, quantum technologies, defence, and industrial deep tech offer alternative sources of returns.

In summary, the global market for startups and venture investments remains generous but increasingly selective. Capital is flowing to companies that control the infrastructure, data, and customer relationships necessary for AI commercialisation. For funds, the key selection criteria in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be revenue quality, discipline in valuations, and realistic exit pathways.