Key Highlights as of 29 July 2026: Numbers Shaping the Agenda
Below are the pivotal figures that form the basis of the current market discussion:
- $510 billion — global venture investments in the first half of 2026; Q1 contributed $305 billion, and Q2 added another $205 billion across more than 5,000 companies.
- 43% — the share of two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, in the global volume of venture financing for the half-year ($217 billion in total).
- Over 70% — the share of AI startups in global venture investments in the second quarter, compared to approximately 50% a year earlier.
- $412.7 billion — venture investments in the USA for the half-year, of which $355.9 billion (86%) were directed towards AI companies.
- $251 billion — raised through 86 US IPOs since the beginning of the year, more than five times the total from all of 2025 ($47.4 billion).
- $113 billion — the volume of acquisitions of startups priced above $1 billion in the second quarter, a record in history.
- 5.09 billion rubles — the volume of the Russian venture market for the half-year, down 40% year on year amid a twofold reduction in the number of deals.
Record Half-Year: Why $510 Billion Does Not Mean "The Market Has Returned"
The record level of venture financing was not achieved through an expansion of the funnel but rather through a few gigantic rounds. The number of deals in the first half of the year has remained virtually unchanged, while in Asian markets, the number of transactions has dropped to a multi-year low despite record amounts. In other words, the average ticket size has increased significantly, while access to capital has narrowed.
Late-stage financing in the second quarter increased by approximately 141% year on year. This constitutes a fundamental shift in the behaviour of venture funds: capital is not flowing into the expansion of portfolios with new names, but into recapitalising already proven leaders. For managers, this means a more predictable, yet less asymmetric profile of returns; for limited partners (LPs), there is a rise in correlation between funds of differing strategies.
Capital Concentration: The Main Risk on the Agenda
The situation in which two companies consume 43% of the world's venture capital in half a year has no historical parallels. Additionally, there is a geographical skew: approximately 88% of all investments in AI startups go to companies headquartered in the USA. Simultaneously, the US's share in the total volume of Q2 has decreased from 83% to 66–67% — capital is becoming concentrated across sectors while also internationalising geographically.
For investment committees, this raises three practical questions:
- How diversified is the fund's portfolio if most of the industry returns are dictated by a few private companies?
- How to evaluate "second-tier" startups in AI when valuation benchmarks are set by rounds of unprecedented scale?
- What will happen to the multiples of the entire sector if at least one of the leaders disappoints the public market?
Deals in Late July: Where the Money Was Actually Directed
The last decade of July provided a telling snapshot of the priorities of venture funds. The most notable funding rounds included:
- Etched — $300 million, Series C, inference chips, lead Sequoia.
- CuspAI — $450 million, Series B, AI for developing new materials (Kleiner Perkins, NEA).
- Meshy — approximately $400 million, Series B, 3D content generation.
- Glow — $180 million, Series A, cybersecurity (Sequoia, Cyberstarts).
- Cathedral — $160 million, defence cyber-AI (Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia).
- Humanoid — $152 million, Series A with a valuation of $1.35 billion; the first European "unicorn" in humanoid robotics.
- Neo — $100 million emerging from stealth mode, applications security in the age of AI agents.
Earlier in July, the market observed even larger transactions: $1.8 billion for defence company Helsing, $1 billion for SambaNova Systems, $800 million for Together AI, $700 million for med-tech platform Neko, and €411 million for nuclear project Proxima Fusion. The overall conclusion is that venture capital is funding not merely applications but the "operating system" of the new economy — computation, energy, security, and robotic production processes.
Physical AI, Defence and Deep Tech: The New Map of Priorities
Three themes are shaping the investment mood for the second half of 2026. The first is physical AI: models connected to hardware, from construction robots to industrial perception. The second is defence and sovereign technologies, where European startups are competing for the first time in a decade with American ones regarding deal sizes. The third is energy for data centres: nuclear, geothermal, and grid projects are being funded as an infrastructure asset class rather than merely a venture asset class.
Notably, cybersecurity has become a derivative of the proliferation of AI agents: investors are funding companies solving problems that have been created by generative models. This is a sustainable "second-order" pattern and will remain a source of deals at least until the year's end.
IPO Window 2026: Open, But Not for Everyone
The IPO market is experiencing the strongest comeback since 2021. By the end of July, 86 IPOs had taken place in the USA with a total volume of $251 billion; global proceeds for the half-year reached $178 billion (+205% year on year) across 524 deals. Technology listings averaged a 44.5% increase on the first day of trading, and the combined valuation of companies in the IPO pipeline exceeded $2.1 trillion.
However, the structure of this record is as concentrated as venture capital itself. The offering by SpaceX, amounting to $85.7 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, accounted for approximately one-third of all funds raised for the year. Anthropic filed for IPO on 1 June after a funding round of $65 billion; OpenAI filed confidentially on 8 June at a private valuation of $852 billion. Strava is preparing for an IPO with a valuation of around $2.2 billion. Simultaneously, Databricks publicly declined to list in 2026 in favour of 2027, discussing a private round at a valuation of $165–175 billion compared to $134 billion half a year earlier. Canva and Cohere are still considered potential candidates for 2027 by the market.
M&A and Exits: The Best Quarter in Five Years
For the first time since 2021, the dynamics of exits have caught up with the dynamics of financing. In the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations exceeding $1 billion, and another 24 were acquired for prices starting from $1 billion, totalling $113 billion — a record in history. For venture funds, this indicates the unlocking of Distributions to Paid-In (DPI): LP distributions have finally begun to return to levels that make a full cycle of re-commitment to new funds possible.
Nevertheless, the quality of exits remains uneven. Large strategic acquisitions are concentrated in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and biotech, while classic mid-sized SaaS continues to exit at a discount to 2021 rounds.
Fundraising and Dry Powder: Capital Exists, But Access is Limited
On a global scale, private markets hold about $3.9 trillion in unallocated capital, of which around $600 billion is directly from venture funds. However, the proportion of successfully closed funds has fallen to approximately 57% compared to 94% in 2020 — LPs have become significantly more selective, preferring established platforms over new managers.
The practical implication for the market: the gap between "top-quartile" funds and the rest continues to expand, while emerging managers increasingly pursue deals through syndicates, SPVs, and co-investments with larger platforms.
Russia and the CIS: The Market in a State of Strict Selection
The Russian venture market is moving in the opposite direction of the global trend. In the first half of 2026, the volume of venture investments amounted to 5.09 billion rubles — 40% lower than the previous year. A total of 50 deals were completed, half the number from the first half of 2025, with an average ticket size of 113.2 million rubles. The largest investments were directed towards artificial intelligence and machine learning — the sector focus aligns with global trends, but the scale does not.
Industry analysts compare the current figures to the levels of 2009–2011. The logic of financing has structurally changed: with a high key interest rate, the deposit and debt markets are competing with venture returns, hence investors are demanding established revenue, positive unit economics, and a clear path to profitability from startups, rather than merely "promising ideas". The primary sources of capital remain corporate venture, industry funds, and club syndicates.
Conclusions for Venture Investors and Funds
The agenda for 29 July 2026 can be summarised in four key points:
- Record ≠ Broad Market. The aggregated $510 billion conceals a narrowing of the funnel: capital is available to category leaders, not the average startup.
- Concentration is an Independent Risk. Portfolios whose returns depend on a few AI leaders require stress testing for scenarios of disappointing debuts from any one of them.
- The Exit Window is Open, But Selectively. Companies valued between $2–5 billion, with stable revenues and nearing profitability, have a genuine chance to take advantage of the current IPO cycle.
- Infrastructural Investment Wins Over Applicational. Computation, energy, security, and physical AI offer a more secure position than applications built on top of other models.
The market has entered a phase where an excess of capital is combined with a shortage of access to it. For venture funds and institutional investors, this necessitates a return to fundamental discipline: quality selection, discipline in valuation, and sober liquidity planning, regardless of how impressive the headline figures of the half-year may appear.
