Investors continue to raise stakes in artificial intelligence (AI), but the focus is shifting from applications to “hard” infrastructure: energy, specialised chips, data centres, and cybersecurity. Concurrently, the volatility of recent IPOs is prompting funds to rethink their exit strategies in favour of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and secondary deals. Below are the key events and trends shaping the agenda of the venture capital market as of Wednesday, 5 August 2026.
Major Deal: Nvidia Invests $5 Billion in Safe Superintelligence
A central event in recent days is the strategic partnership between Nvidia and Safe Superintelligence (SSI) — the laboratory founded by Ilya Sutskever, co-founder of OpenAI. According to sources familiar with the deal's terms, the investment from the chipmaker amounts to approximately $5 billion — one of Nvidia's largest bets during the AI boom.
The details of the deal are impressive even against the backdrop of a heated market:
- SSI will receive priority access to the Vera Rubin computing platform — the latest architecture from Nvidia;
- The startup's computing power is expected to increase tenfold within the next twelve months;
- SSI's total funding has reached approximately $7 billion, with a valuation of around $32 billion;
- The company still has no commercial products and publicly states that it does not plan to release interim models until it achieves its main goal.
The deal underscores a new market logic: major technology corporations are willing to pay billions not for revenue, but for access to cutting-edge research and talent. For the venture funds previously invested in SSI, including Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, Lightspeed, and Greenoaks, the partnership with Nvidia serves as a powerful validation of their positions.
Record-Hitting Half-Year: $510 Billion and Unprecedented Capital Concentration
The statistics for the first half of 2026 have rewritten all historical highs. Global venture investment volume reached $510 billion — approximately 36% higher than the previous record set in the second half of 2021. The first quarter brought in $305 billion, marking the largest quarter in industry history; the second quarter added another $205 billion, distributed among over five thousand startups.
However, beneath the impressive figures lies a worrying structure of the market for allocators:
- Approximately 43% of the total capital for the half-year was captured by just two companies — OpenAI and Anthropic;
- Nearly 80% of global funding across seed to late-stage rounds went to American startups — a sharp contrast to the pre-AI era when the US share barely exceeded half;
- In the AI segment, the concentration is even higher: about 88% of AI investments, or around $319 billion, went to companies based in the US;
- The five largest managers accounted for over 73% of all venture commitments, with the top 15 firms claiming nearly 89%.
Analysts warn that the venture asset class is increasingly resembling public indices, where returns are dictated by a narrow group of mega capitalisations. For institutional investors, this poses a risk of hidden exposure duplication when investing in several large funds simultaneously.
IPO Market: A Record Year with a Bitter Aftertaste
The IPO market in 2026 is formally experiencing a renaissance: 44 IPOs of venture companies have taken place in the US — nearing the total of 50 for the entire previous year. The climax was the June debut of SpaceX, valued at approximately $1.77 trillion, followed by listings from Cerebras, Quantinuum, X-Energy, and HawkEye 360.
However, post-debut dynamics have dampened enthusiasm. SpaceX shares fell approximately 30% below their IPO price within six weeks, while Cerebras' stock was down by up to 35%. Consequences soon followed:
- OpenAI has postponed its IPO plans to 2027;
- Databricks has completely removed itself from the listing queue — the company's head labelled 2026 as “a terrible year for IPOs” due to a calendar overwhelmed with mega-listings;
- Late-stage investors are increasingly utilising secondary deals and structured liquidity instead of waiting for IPOs.
A curious countertrend is being set by Robinhood: the broker is preparing to list a second venture fund of up to $200 million, offering retail investors access to early-stage private companies through a publicly traded structure. The listing is scheduled for mid-August — a signal that the democratisation of the venture asset class continues, regardless of sentiment in the traditional IPO segment.
Where the Money Goes: Infrastructure for AI Over Applications
Recent rounds in recent days demonstrate a sharp shift of capital towards the physical infrastructure of the AI economy. Investors are financing the “bottlenecks” of the boom — energy, computing, and security:
- Valar Atomics raised $1 billion in Series B funding at a valuation of $6 billion for the mass production of modular nuclear reactors for data centres;
- Commonwealth Fusion Systems secured $1 billion for the construction of an industrial-scale fusion power plant, bringing its total funding to $4 billion;
- Antora Energy closed a $550 million Series C round aimed at thermal energy storage for data centres;
- K2 Space raised $500 million for the production of high-power satellites;
- The British developer of photonic chips for AI inference, OLIX, raised approximately $312 million at a valuation of $3.3 billion;
- Horizon3.ai received $250 million for autonomous cyber defence testing tools.
The investors’ logic is transparent: while the outcome of competition between AI applications remains uncertain, suppliers of “shovels and picks” — energy, computing, and security — will profit regardless of the outcome.
Consolidation and M&A: Strategists Reshape the Landscape
Amid the narrowing IPO window, mergers and acquisitions are becoming the primary channel for liquidity. The first half of the year has already witnessed landmark deals: Qualcomm acquired AI chip developer Modular for about $4 billion, Salesforce absorbed the provider of customer AI solutions, Fin, and the purchase of Cursor marked the largest acquisition of a venture company in history.
Corporate venture arms are also changing tactics: instead of a broad portfolio of small bets, they are focusing on fewer large investments in AI startups, viewing them as a means to gain priority access to computing power and technologies. For early-stage funds, this expands the map of potential acquirers for their portfolio companies.
Discipline Amid Abundance: How Funds Manage Their “Dry Powder”
Despite record volumes of available capital, easy money is not the narrative. Managers describe the current market as selective: upcoming rounds are awarded to teams with clean metrics, clearly defined unit economics, and a coherent exit strategy. Valuations are rapidly rising only among category leaders — primarily in AI and late-stage rounds — while the rest of the market faces a rigorous sustainability test.
It is also noteworthy that the record exit environment is not aiding small and new venture firms: institutional funds continue to flow towards the largest brands in the industry, complicating fundraising for managers of first and second funds.
Russia and the CIS: Cautious Recovery on a Low Base
The Russian venture market is moving within its own logic. In 2025, its volume amounted to approximately $159 million across 102 deals; however, the average deal size has increased by two-thirds to $1.7 million. Forecasts for 2026 suggest a growth of 10–15%, gradually restoring to a level of around 17 billion roubles.
The drivers include private and state funds, while the activity of business angels is restrained by high key rates and competition from bonds. Among notable initiatives is the launch of the first specialised fund in the country for projects based on AI agents, as well as a packed calendar of industry events: a landmark forum, “Venture Landscape,” is scheduled for mid-August in Moscow, bringing together key players in the local ecosystem.
Looking Ahead: What This Means for Investors
The venture market enters the second half of 2026 with a unique combination of factors: unlimited private capital, record concentration, a cooling public window, and a growing role of M&A. For funds and allocators, this yields three practical conclusions. Firstly, diversification beyond consensus mega-deals becomes a source of alpha — competition for quality assets in less efficient market segments is notably lower. Secondly, liquidity strategies require reevaluation: the secondary market and sales to strategics are displacing IPOs as the baseline exit scenario. Thirdly, bets on AI infrastructure — energy, chips, cybersecurity — appear most resilient to potential valuation corrections in the applications segment. The market remains generous but rewards discipline rather than a mere appetite for risk.
