Russia increased its diesel fuel exports from Baltic ports by 22% in March compared to February and by 34% compared to March 2025, reaching 1.78 million tonnes, according to a review by the Centre for Price Indices (CPI) that was shared with RBC. The majority—about 1.16 million tonnes—was shipped from the less affected port of Primorsk. The port of Ust-Luga exported 400,000 tonnes, which is an increase of 80% compared to the previous month and 100% year-on-year.
However, a series of incidents at the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga complicated the export of petroleum products from 25 March onwards. This situation compounds the existing ban on gasoline exports and could lead to a decline in external supplies of petroleum products, including diesel, according to CPI experts.
At the end of March and the beginning of April, drones attacked the port of Ust-Luga several times. One of the attacks occurred on the night of 31 March. According to the Governor of Leningrad Region, Alexander Drozdenko, as a result of the attack, three people were injured, and homes and properties in the locality of Molodtsovo were damaged.
Earlier, on the night of 23 March, the port of Primorsk was subjected to a drone strike, during which containers with petroleum products caught fire. The resulting blaze was localised two days later, on 25 March. At that time, the regional administration reported that specialists did not observe any excessive concentrations of hazardous substances.
Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for the President of Russia, noted that necessary measures are being taken to protect critical infrastructure facilities, including the port of Ust-Luga in Leningrad Region. He emphasised that protective measures cannot eliminate the risk of attacks on these objects.
Furthermore, a dual situation has arisen in the petroleum product transportation market. On one hand, global freight rates have been rising rapidly, and the incidents at Baltic ports have increased risks for carriers, which should have led to a substantial increase in freight costs, as noted in the CPI review. However, from 23 to 29 March, rates barely changed (fluctuating between -$1 and +$3 per tonne) due to an oversupply of tonnage. Mid-month saw a significant influx of available volumes of light petroleum products into the Baltic, while the incidents created a freight base shortage due to the partial suspension of terminal operations. Consequently, carriers were forced to lower rates in order to secure additional loads in the region.
Reasons for the Export Growth in March
Experts surveyed by RBC agreed that the increase in diesel fuel exports from Russia in March was primarily due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which removed a significant portion of Middle Eastern petroleum products from the market. Concerns over fuel shortages led consumers to deplete their stockpiles, notes Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the petroleum marketplace Open Oil Market. For instance, commercial stockpiles at the port of Fujairah in the UAE (the region's key logistics hub) fell by 36% from 2 to 30 March, reaching 13.3 million barrels of petroleum products.
Until 2022, Russia was one of the largest suppliers of diesel fuel to the European market, and subsequently, Russian diesel began to be re-exported to the EU via Turkey. It is likely that transit supplies intensified amid the current crisis and risks of diesel shortages in several European countries, according to Tereshkin.
According to independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov, Egypt has been re-exporting Russian petroleum products to the European market since 2025. However, since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, there has been an increase in direct fuel exports from Russia. Importers, faced with the risk of shortages and supply disruptions from Gulf countries, have ceased to fear secondary sanctions from the US. "They understand that the primary task of the Trump administration is to mitigate the risk of price increases amid transit issues in the Middle East, hence Washington has relaxed the monitoring of sanctions compliance against Russia," said the expert.
As noted by Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing Partner at Kasatkin Consulting, demand for petroleum products is currently at its highest since 2022. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a diesel fuel deficit in Europe and South Asia, with wholesale prices in Frankfurt nearing record levels from May 2022. "The temporary relaxation of sanctions has further expanded the buyer pool, with the discount on Russian diesel to European benchmarks narrowing to a minimum. However, opportunities to realise this demand are limited: incidents at Baltic terminals are reducing export capacities at the most inopportune moment for the global market," says the expert.
The US temporarily excluded the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto ships by 12 March from sanctions. The licence is valid until 11 April and does not apply to transactions related to Iran.
Redirecting the Volumes
The volumes of diesel fuel that may be lost due to incidents at Baltic ports can potentially be replaced with shipments through the Great Port of Saint Petersburg and the port of Vysotsk, which together have a total capacity exceeding 400,000 tonnes. However, considering the accident at the Kirishsky Refinery, there is no immediate need to replace export capacities in Primorsk.
If the infrastructure at Primorsk and Ust-Luga is not quickly restored to adequate capacity, diesel fuel exports through Baltic ports in April may decrease by 30–50% compared to March, according to Kasatkin. Petroleum products are transported to these ports via pipelines, and it is physically impossible to quickly shift volumes to other routes, he explained.
Redirecting to Novorossiysk or Taman would require extensive rail transport (with a distance of over 2,000 km). This significantly increases costs and is limited by the capacity of Russian Railways. According to experts, it is realistic to redistribute no more than 15–20% of the lost volumes. A portion of petroleum products will be diverted to the domestic market, which could exert upward pressure on wholesale diesel prices within the country.
Source: RBC
