Late spring and refinery repairs may drive wholesale diesel prices up
Scheduled spring repairs at Russian refineries may coincide with a period of increased seasonal demand for diesel fuel from the agricultural sector, which this year is likely to commence later than usual. Market participants believe that this combination could support prices for summer fuels, which have already reached their highest levels since October.
The delayed start of spring agricultural activities due to adverse weather could align with the scheduled refinery repairs, which may bolster the diesel market, sources in the industry told Kommersant. According to a market participant, the escalation of export parity due to the worsening situation in the Middle East may also contribute to rising prices.
In anticipation of the preparatory work for scheduled repairs, commodity stocks at refineries have been formed and are currently at high levels, exceeding last year’s figures, the Ministry of Energy reported to Kommersant. As part of the preparations for the planting season, oil companies have agreed on fuel supply volumes to agricultural producers, it was noted. “The Ministry of Energy will continue to monitor the motor fuel market dynamics, and necessary regulatory measures will be taken considering the supply and demand balance,” the ministry added.
The price of summer diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg exchange rose by 1.96% to 60,530 rubles per tonne on 10 March, according to the index for the European part of Russia. Inter-seasonal diesel fuel increased by 1.1% to 60,630 rubles per tonne. These are the highest figures for both fuel types since mid-October 2025. From 2 to 6 March, wholesale prices for summer diesel rose by 5.6% and inter-seasonal diesel by 7.7%.
Exchange prices for diesel fuel began to rise in the first week of March amid external uncertainties and expectations of increased seasonal demand, according to a review from the National Exchange Price Agency.
Analysts note that market participants are starting to build up stocks in anticipation of active consumption from the agricultural and construction sectors. However, despite the arrival of the calendar spring, actual demand remains subdued due to weather conditions affecting logistics and slowing economic activity, as indicated in the review. Furthermore, overall diesel sales remain relatively low—at 57,900 tonnes per day—which traditionally supports price growth, analysts point out. Oil companies are reallocating volumes in favour of summer diesel, with minimum sales in March projected at 310,900 tonnes, which is 84% higher than February's figure.
According to Andrey Dyachenko, the chief analyst for oil and petroleum products markets and macroeconomics at Proleum, snowfalls may delay agricultural activity by two to three weeks, but the stockpile of summer diesel has already been established, making further increases impractical.
Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alpha Capital Asset Management, does not believe that the current sales volumes are a factor for further price increases. He maintains that the scheduled spring repairs will have minimal influence on the market if timelines are adhered to. Moreover, he adds that last year’s experience showed that there are significant reserves in place for potential disruptions. Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, observes that Russia produces diesel fuel with a significant surplus, so the risk of shortages remains low even with potential unplanned refinery shutdowns.
The dynamics of exchange prices for diesel fuel in spring will also be influenced by the situation regarding damping payments, says Sergey Tereshkin, general director of Open Oil Market. The higher the subsidies, he explains, the lower the incentives for oil companies to raise prices, and when payments decrease, companies will compensate for losses through rising wholesale prices. In February, oil companies transferred 18.8 billion rubles to the budget under the damping mechanism for the first time in five years, according to materials from the Ministry of Finance. In January, budget payments to oil companies amounted to 16.9 billion rubles.
In March, amid rising external prices for oil products, the situation could change in favour of producers, notes Sergey Tereshkin. Without revising the damping formula, prices could again exceed 70,000 rubles per tonne over the year, he adds.
In January, according to Euler analysts, the profitability of diesel fuel exports for Russian producers became higher than domestic supplies for the first time since at least 2024, partly due to falling exchange prices (see Kommersant from 13 February). According to Reuters, in January, maritime exports of diesel fuel and gas oil from Russia increased by 19% compared to December, reaching 4 million tonnes. In February, shipments decreased to 2.85 million tonnes due to challenging ice conditions in the Baltic ports and unplanned refinery repairs. Currently, only producers can export diesel fuel, while a ban remains in place for others until 31 July.
Source: Kommersant
