The EU may temporarily refrain from raising the price cap on Russian oil, reported Bloomberg on May 31, citing sources. The current cap is set at $44.10 per barrel and is supposed to be revised every six months based on the average Urals cost. Due to a rise in global prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, the cap on Russian oil prices could have increased to $65 per barrel, the agency noted.
According to Bloomberg, the EU may suspend the automatic increase of the price cap until the end of 2026 or set a new maximum at $60 per barrel.
This measure could be included in the 21st package of EU sanctions against Russia. A representative of the European Commission declined to comment to the agency.
The EU and G7 countries allow their companies to provide services for the maritime transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products to third countries, provided they comply with the price cap. The price of $44.10 per barrel has been established by the authorities of the EU, the UK, and Canada, while Japan's cap is set at $47.60 per barrel, and the US cap stands at $60 per barrel.
According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) and Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite, tankers linked to G7 countries or their allies accounted for 29.4% of Russian oil exports in April, amounting to 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d), compared to 20.3% in March. The figure for April was the highest in seven months.
Analysts attribute the increase in the share of G7-linked tankers to signals from Western authorities regarding a potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil amid an impending raw materials shortage on the global market due to the conflict in the Middle East. For instance, since March, the US has issued four licenses for transactions involving Russian oil and petroleum products. The latest license is valid until June 17 and pertains to volumes loaded onto tankers by April 17.
Additionally, the EU did not include a ban on the provision of services for the transportation of Russian oil in the 20th sanctions package. Instead, the EU Council reported that a "foundation for a future ban" would be established, coordinated with the G7. The Council's regulation indicated that it would be prudent to amend the price cap on Russian oil and petroleum products, thereby allowing for the "prompt blocking" of maritime supplies (see “Ъ” April 24).
According to Bloomberg, a complete ban on maritime transportation of Russian oil is also unlikely to be included in the 21st sanctions package against Russia.
This measure lacks support from a number of EU member states and the G7 as a whole, the agency notes. Greece, the largest ship-owning country in Europe, previously opposed a total ban. According to CAS, Greek tanker operators increased their transportation of Russian oil by 2.2 times in April, reaching 687 thousand b/d, the highest level since October 2025.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University, states that the price cap itself does not affect the volumes of Russian exports. However, if the cap is increased and Russian oil falls within its limits, it will intensify competition between the shadow and regular fleets, reduce shipping costs, and allow Russia to earn more—which is, in the expert’s view, the difficulty for Europeans that has prompted them to reconsider their actions.
Kirill Bakhtin, head of the analytical centre for Russian stocks at BCS Global Markets, notes that for Russian oil producers today, levels of $44.10 or $60–65 per barrel are not particularly significant, as the actual price is higher. According to Argus, as of May 22, Urals was priced at $84–85 per barrel, depending on the loading port. "The EU cap is, in our opinion, a far less effective tool than the G7 cap," adds Mr. Bakhtin.
According to Sergei Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the price cap on oil is the most challenging restrictive measure to administer.
"If, in the case of direct imports of oil and petroleum products, it is sufficient to monitor the vessels entering the ports, then to track the price cap, one needs to control hundreds and thousands of oil purchase transactions, which from a technical perspective is impossible," explains the analyst. However, Mr. Tereshkin notes that a temporary suspension of the price cap would be an acknowledgment of the ineffectiveness of this measure, which is why the EU is thinking about another "reconfiguration" of this mechanism. From the standpoint of the overall market situation, this would change little, he believes.
Source: Kommersant
