According to a report by the National Exchange Price Agency, on May 8, 32,640 tonnes of petrol were sold during trading, which is 5.9% less than the previous trading day. Sales of A-92 dropped by 8.9% to 20,340 tonnes, while A-95 sales increased by 1.5% to 12,240 tonnes. The volume of unsatisfied solvent demand for A-92 amounted to 23,460 tonnes, while for A-95 it was 26,340 tonnes, as detailed in the report.
A source in the industry informed "Kommersant" that a deficit of A-95 fuel has already formed in the market in anticipation of the high consumption season.
According to this source, demand for this type of fuel rises faster than for A-92 during the summer, as consumers, particularly during the holiday season, tend to use cars that require A-95 petrol. The cause of the shortage, the source claims, is unplanned repairs at major refineries and a reduction in oil product production. In this context, he continues, oil companies are primarily directing resources to ensure their own distribution structures.
Andrei D'yachenko, the chief analyst at Proleum, also points out the shortage of A-95 petrol in the exchange channel. He estimates that primary processing has currently decreased significantly compared to planned levels, and oil companies are forced to choose which type of petrol to support in production. Nevertheless, he views the situation as "far from critical." His estimates indicate that the actual fuel discharge at refuelling stations is currently 7–10% lower than last year’s level, and available stocks and operating capacities are still adequate to meet final demand.
The Federal Antimonopoly Service informed "Kommersant" that no complaints regarding petrol shortages have been received, indicating that no fuel deficit is observed, and that the issue of petrol shortages was not raised during the recent Exchange Committee meeting. The Ministry of Energy reported to "Kommersant" that the situation on the domestic motor fuel market remains stable and under control.
Currently, the domestic market is sufficiently stocked with light petroleum products, and the logistical supply chain is functioning reliably, with no disruptions recorded in regional supplies, they noted. “The industry is prepared for the seasonal demand growth to unfold in an orderly manner, supported by measures taken by the government, including the ban on petrol exports, as well as continued restrictions on diesel fuel exports for non-producers,” the ministry added.
A market source points to changes in fuel consumption patterns in Russia — a mass renewal of the vehicle fleet driven by Chinese models sensitive to product quality has led to a sharp increase in demand specifically for A-95. According to this source, the notion of the “social significance” of A-92 is outdated, as A-95 has become the primary product. Its production and logistics have been complicated due to incidents at refineries ahead of the peak season. Furthermore, the rise in domestic auto tourism during the May holidays is exerting additional pressure on the market.
Exchange quotations remain relatively stable due to an existing mechanism that limits price increases and decreases to plus 0.01% and minus 3% from the current market price.
As of the trading results on May 8, the price of A-92 petrol, according to the index for the European part of Russia, rose by 0.01% to RUB 65,990 per tonne, while A-95 increased by 0.16% to RUB 71,890 per tonne. However, over-the-counter volumes are being sold at a premium of about 10% to the exchange market price, yet even in this channel, supply remains quite limited, one "Kommersant" source mentioned. “Purchasing A-95 on the exchange is becoming extremely difficult — the demand exceeds supply by several times — possibly more than ten times,” he noted.
Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, also highlights the recovery of the automotive market, leading to an increase in petrol prices and the need for greater production. Additionally, he notes that A-95 petrol is not considered in the calculations of the damping mechanism — subsidies are linked to prices for A-92 and diesel fuel. Therefore, the risks of price increases for A-95 are always higher, regardless of the physical availability of fuel, Mr. Tereshkin adds.
Analysts at "UfaOil" report that the increase in the supply of petrol at the beginning of May was supported by a resumption of trading from major oil refineries. However, the analysts continue, volumes later decreased again, partly due to a repeat suspension of exchange sales by some refineries. Additional pressure on the market is being exerted by increased delivery times and a reduction in available supply in bulk sales, the experts add. Shipping times at the beginning of May increased by an average of two to four weeks, according to a "Kommersant" market source. He estimates that unplanned repairs at major enterprises could last at least one month. Such a situation, the source adds, prevents market participants from forming long-term reserves, which increases the risks of fuel shortages during the summer.
Source: Kommersant
