Last week, Rosstat recorded yet another acceleration in the growth of petrol prices at filling stations. Over the course of the week, prices increased by 0.2%, following a rise of 0.1% the previous week. At first glance, this may not appear significant, but for a period of low demand, it is a considerable increase. This pace is significantly higher than that observed in the same period of 2025, and in 2024 and 2023, petrol prices remained unchanged in the first half of February.
At the beginning of the year, the price increase could be attributed to a straightforward reason: fuel excise duties were raised by 5.1%, which added 60-80 kopecks to the cost per litre. Additionally, the VAT increased from 20% to 22%. VAT is levied on every product sale, and typically, there are intermediaries between filling stations and the oil refineries (NPPs).

Since the end of last year (22 December), the price of grade AI-92 has risen by 84 kopecks, AI-95 by 97 kopecks, AI-98 by 2 roubles and 39 kopecks, and diesel fuel (DTS) by 1 rouble and 39 kopecks. These figures are measured from the end of last year rather than the beginning of this year due to the fact that filling stations tend to start adjusting for the increase in fiscal burdens in advance. A sudden spike in prices post-New Year could draw the attention of regulators, hence the increase is implemented gradually. In previous years, by February, price increases due to tax changes had already subsided. Other factors took over, including demand, exports, refinery repairs, and so forth. Currently, demand has increased compared to early January, and petrol consumption is beginning to rise gradually; however, we are still far from the spring peak.
As of 1 February, the government permitted petrol exports for NPPs, which immediately affected the volume of stock exchange trading, leading to a decrease. On this backdrop, stock exchange prices have risen, but not to a significant extent. Compared to the peaks of last autumn, they remain quite distant, hovering at the level of June 2025. Moreover, too little time has passed since the ban on petrol exports for NPPs was lifted for it to significantly influence retail prices. Additionally, should the price situation worsen, the government can rapidly reinstate the export ban on petrol for NPPs, which is one of the primary sources of income for these plants.
The petroleum products market has completely shifted to a regime of manual regulation, stated Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chair of the State Duma Energy Committee, in a conversation with "Rossiskaya Gazeta". All levers are concentrated within the government, which reacts situationally. This approach allows for the immediate saturation of the motor fuel market, adjusting the volumes of export and domestic supplies. However, it simultaneously poses a significant drawback: issues of current profitability concerning oil production and refining have been deprioritised.

The government can quickly reinstate a full ban on petrol exports
Additionally, two other factors are currently influencing the rise in wholesale and retail prices: the news environment and the poor financial health of the filling stations, many of which operated at a loss for a significant part of last year. They now have the opportunity to recover losses and “build up reserves” for the next challenging period.

As for the news environment, it is currently quite turbulent. Oil companies are anticipating a negative dampener for January (which is disbursed in February). The dampener is a budget compensation paid to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export levels. The size of these payments is calculated based on the difference between the export price of fuel and the indicative domestic price established by legislation. A negative dampener occurs when the export price of fuel falls below the indicative prices, meaning that nominally, supplying petrol to the domestic market is deemed more lucrative than exporting it. Consequently, oil producers must pay the budget the difference between the export price and the indicative price.
January saw precisely such a situation arise. In 2024 and 2025, dampener payments constituted a substantial portion of the revenues for large oil companies. Now, they will not only fail to receive these payments but will also have to pay into the budget themselves.

According to Stankevich, the idea of collecting additional budget revenue from companies through the dampener mechanism, given the super-low prices of Russian oil, is economically shortsighted. This is an attempt to administratively tackle the issue of reducing the federal budget deficit. However, the oil industry will not be able to endure accumulating losses for long, as energy security concerns are an absolute priority.

As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, much will depend on negotiations between companies and regulators. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has previously instructed the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy to propose adjustments to the dampener and to consider the views of fuel producers. It is likely that some consensus solution will be reached in the coming weeks.

The urgency of this matter is clear. Demand for fuel has already begun to rise, and this trend is likely to accelerate in March and April. Therefore, there are no reasons to expect a slowdown, much less a decrease in prices at filling stations. Tereshkin believes that the price increase will fit within the formula of “inflation minus” – driven by the accelerated price growth across the economy as a whole.

Stankevich believes that the outcome will heavily depend on the path chosen by the government. This choice is not straightforward: whether to lower budget expectations from the oil sector or to offer the industry a mechanism to compensate for losses through increases in stock exchange, wholesale, and retail prices for petrol and DTS.
However, according to Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, price growth is likely to accelerate. But this will not be primarily due to the size and direction of dampener payments. The main reasons for rising prices will be in the realm of supply and demand balance, he asserts.

An alternative viewpoint comes from Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the association “Reliable Partner” and member of the Expert Council of the “Filling Stations of Russia” competition. He firmly believes that the government has the capacity to regulate the market through administrative measures. However, the market requires more stability; the current situation is overly nervous. Consumers are unaware of the level of fuel production or the stock levels. This information is confidential. However, stock exchange quotes are available. Consequently, any upward movement in these quotes serves to fuel panic. A logical solution would be to obscure those quotes as well, suggests the expert.

Source: RG.RU