Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, following a meeting on the situation in the Russian oil products market, instructed relevant agencies to prepare a balanced action plan to maintain the stability of the domestic fuel market. This was reported by the government press service on 22 June. Vedomosti has found out which initiatives may be included in this plan.

According to two Vedomosti sources familiar with the meeting's outcomes, the list of measures may include facilitating imports of motor fuel into Russia. The Ministry of Finance should adjust the damping mechanism on the fuel market so that the government can make payments under it for imports of oil products.

Russia currently imports petrol and diesel fuel from Belarus. In October last year, the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) zeroed the import duty on supplies of petrol, diesel, aviation and marine fuel until 30 June 2026; previously the duty rate was 5%. In early June this year, Russia proposed extending the zero import duty until 30 June 2027.

Another initiative that could be included in the government's plan, according to Vedomosti sources, is the possibility of producing oil products in Russia with characteristics that deviate somewhat from the current technical regulations. Kommersant wrote in mid-June that the government has allowed certain oil refineries to produce petrol and diesel with deviations from technical regulation requirements regarding sulphur content and other quality indicators.

According to one of the Vedomosti sources, implementing these measures may take about a month. The plan will also include traditional measures such as ensuring that oil companies prioritise fuel supplies to the domestic market and maximise their production capacity utilisation.

Another aspect could be a temporary reduction of the mandatory exchange sales quota for petrol from 15% to 10% of production volume, from 1 July to 30 September 2026. A corresponding draft joint order from the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) and the Ministry of Energy has been posted on the federal portal of regulatory legal acts. Volumes not placed on the exchange are expected to be directed to agricultural producers and other socially significant consumers, says one Vedomosti source.

In addition, the meeting at the government presented the results of monitoring the situation on the domestic fuel market regarding pricing. The FAS reported on measures taken to prevent unjustified price increases for oil products and to curb violations of antitrust laws.

Participants also reviewed the situation with fuel supplies to the regions and assessed the level of accumulated reserves. Representatives of oil companies reported on measures to saturate the domestic fuel market, maintain price stability, increase oil product output, and commission new production capacities.

Novak instructed the FAS to continue continuous monitoring of fuel prices and, if necessary, take prompt action.

The fuel market stabilisation plan should be prepared taking into account existing regulatory mechanisms, the cabinet noted.

Igor Yushkov, expert at the Financial University under the Government, argues that the damping payment for petrol imports is not about attracting supplies but about keeping domestic prices stable, since the price of petrol and diesel on foreign markets is significantly higher. Otherwise, independent petrol stations would see fuel prices tens of roubles higher, agrees Sergei Kaufman, analyst at Finam FG.

Meanwhile, subsidising imports through the damper creates a dangerous precedent of financing foreign suppliers and could negatively impact Russian oil refining, believes Dmitry Prokofiev, Director of External Communications at NEFT Research. Lowering environmental standards for fuel output will have a limited impact, Kaufman thinks.

Sergei Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, suggests regulators should consider centralised purchases of fuel from far abroad using reserve fund allocations already set aside in the federal budget for emergency government procurement. He also believes it important to maintain current exchange supply quotas for petrol, as this improves the situation assessment by independent petrol stations.

Kaufman argues that all administrative measures that could help have already been introduced. The remaining options are either increasing imports or restoring production by preventing further attacks on refineries.

Vedomosti sent requests to the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Finance, and the FAS.

Source: Vedomosti