Expert Discusses the Consequences of Raising the Deviation Threshold for Dampers

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Impact of Changing the Deviation Threshold for Dampers
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MOСКВА, 30 сен - ПРАЙМ. The increase in the permissible deviation range of exchange prices from indicative prices for the damper will help stabilise fuel prices in the domestic market of Russia; however, in the long term, everything will depend on the dynamics of fuel production, commented Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the fuel marketplace "Open Oil Market" (a Skolkovo resident), to RIA Novosti.

The threshold for possible deviations in wholesale fuel prices from indicative prices for damper payments will be raised by 10 percentage points - to 20% for petrol and to 30% for diesel fuel, according to materials for the federal budget project for 2026-2028.

"The change in damper rules in itself will contribute to price stabilisation, albeit at higher levels than in the first half of 2025. Therefore, in the last quarter of 2025, there will be a certain lull in the exchange compared to what we witnessed in August-September," said the agency's interlocutor.

In the longer term, "the crucial factor will be the dynamics of fuel production," noted Tereshkin. If this cannot be stabilised, the risks of price increases will persist into 2026, he believes.

According to the St. Petersburg exchange, the price of AI-92 petrol increased by 6.3% in September, with its average monthly price amounting to 72,302 roubles per tonne, which is below the potentially adjusted damper cutoff (72,540 roubles per tonne). Consequently, oil producers may receive damper payments if the permissible deviation threshold for wholesale prices is increased by 10 percentage points retroactively from September 1.

The damper is paid to oil producers only if the export price of fuel is higher than the domestic price. Furthermore, according to the current Tax Code, if the average exchange price of petrol in Russia exceeds the cutoff by 10% and diesel by 20% for the month, the payments will be nullified.

Source: Прайм

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