Russian refineries are gradually resuming fuel sales on the Saint Petersburg exchange following planned and emergency repairs. Wholesale trading volumes have begun to increase, unsatisfied demand is declining, and the situation at some filling stations is stabilising. However, analysts warn that market recovery will not be swift. Refineries with a combined processing capacity of approximately 40 million tonnes of oil per year have returned to selling fuel on the Saint Petersburg exchange. This information is outlined in a report from the analytical agency Platts, part of S&P Global, which has been made available to “Kommersant.” Some large enterprises, which account for more than 45 million tonnes of annual processing, have not yet resumed their participation in trading. Since 20 July, the Saint Petersburg exchange has also relaxed the permitted volatility limits for some types of fuel. For gasoline A-92, A-95, and diesel fuel under the terms of “franco-tank” and “franco-destination” delivery, the increase corridor has been widened from 0.01% to 5%, with a reduction allowed of up to 10%. For the basis of “franco-wagon station of origin” delivery, the maximum growth remains at 0.01%, while a 5% decline is permitted. For aviation kerosene, increases are capped at 0.01% with potential reductions of up to 20%. Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, states that the widening of the price growth range is aimed at invigorating exchange trading, which is becoming an increasingly irrelevant price indicator. According to him, the majority of fuel is now being sold through off-exchange channels, and this trend has intensified in recent weeks. The government previously reduced the norm for gasoline sales on the Saint Petersburg exchange from 15% to 10% of production levels, with a similar adjustment planned for diesel fuel. As of 20 July, the price of A-92 gasoline on the Saint Petersburg exchange, based on the index for the European part of Russia, increased by 0.7% to 72,290 roubles per tonne. A-95 experienced a decrease of 2.3%, bringing the price down to 74,610 roubles per tonne, while diesel fuel quotations fell by 0.38%, to 74,420 roubles per tonne. The decline in quotations may indicate an increase in supply. This interpretation is further supported by the rise in wholesale sales volumes. According to the National Exchange Price Agency, on 17 July, the figure rose by 4.6% compared to the previous day, reaching 13,740 tonnes. Although 81.9% of the total volume of gasoline purchase requests remained unsatisfied, the volume of unsatisfied demand has decreased across all gasoline grades, as noted in the report. The situation is most challenging in the A-98 / A-100 segment, where the unsatisfied demand stands at 92.9%. Exchange data indicates that from 1 to 17 July, gasoline sales decreased by 47.8% year-on-year, totalling 277,300 tonnes. Since the beginning of 2026, 4.74 million tonnes of gasoline have been sold at the trades, which is 16.7% less than the previous year. Additional support for the market is being provided by the supply of petroleum products from Belarus. According to the exchange, the level of Belarusian gasoline sales from 1 to 17 July amounted to 98,760 tonnes, which is 8.7% higher than the total for June. According to a source in the industry cited by “Kommersant,” the situation at Russian filling stations has started to improve: queues have shortened, and many operators have returned to selling fuel without restrictions. Independent networks continue to receive gasoline supplies from Belarusian refineries and possibly from vertically integrated oil companies. “The peak of the deficit has probably already passed,” says the source. However, he notes the potential for gasoline stocks to fall below 1.5 million tonnes. According to the Ministry of Energy, as reported by President Vladimir Putin at the end of June, gasoline stocks decreased by 4% year-on-year to 1.7 million tonnes. Another industry source mentioned that more capacity is currently coming online than is being taken offline. Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner at NEFT Research, does not anticipate a rapid recovery of the market. He states that the high seasonal demand will persist over the next two months, making significant improvement unlikely in the short term. The balance between supply and demand, he notes, cannot be restored instantly, and a noticeable increase in production will only be possible closer to the end of the year as the affected refineries resume operations. Valeria Popova, Senior Analyst at the investment company “Rikom-Trast,” emphasises that stabilisation requires the restoration of stocks, a reduction in the volatility of exchange quotations, and the easing of temporary restrictions. Source: Kommersant