The heating season in Europe has only just begun, yet storage levels are being depleted at record speeds. Current levels are typical for the end of December. What is driving Europeans to use their gas reserves so rapidly for winter, and what are the potential risks involved?
European nations have started extracting gas from their underground storage facilities (UGS) at unprecedented rates. From 15 to 30 November, they withdrew 7.7 billion cubic metres, surpassing the figures for the same period in November 2024 by 5%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). The volume extracted in the first half of the month was lower.
The gas withdrawal in November is outpacing the typical rate by approximately a month. In other words, storage levels in the EU usually reach the current level by the end of December, based on the average over the past five years, as reported by TASS.
“The real cold weather has not yet arrived in Europe. There are still several months of winter ahead. Technologically, the reduction of reserves in storage diminishes their efficiency. If severe or prolonged cold spells occur, insufficient gas reserves in UGS could jeopardise reliable gas supply to European consumers,” state experts from Gazprom.
There are several reasons why Europeans are compelled to withdraw more gas from storage at the start of this heating season compared to what was needed in 2024.
“Firstly, many European companies are trying to sell gas from underground storage facilities now because they fear that prices may drop further. They purchased and injected this gas earlier at higher prices than those prevailing now, and they dread incurring even greater losses,”
– says Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (FNEB). European gas exchange prices fell to their lowest levels in a year and a half, reaching $335 per thousand cubic metres on 2 December.
Secondly, the EU is receiving less pipeline gas than last year, as Russian gas supplies via Ukraine have decreased by 15-16 billion cubic metres. “Thus, even with the same volumes of LNG, Europeans would still be extracting more gas from underground storage facilities. The volumes of gas that used to arrive daily through Ukraine from Russia are now being compensated by gas from underground storage,” explains the FNEB expert.
Moreover, the EU has lost over 1 million tonnes of LNG per year that was previously shipped to the European market from two Russian projects – "Kriogaz Vysotsk" and "Gazprom LNG Portovaya". Now, supplies have been halted due to US sanctions.
The third factor is that Europeans now have an obligation to supply gas to Ukraine. “Previously, Ukraine used to purchase virtual reverse gas, essentially transit Russian gas, but now it is physically taking blue fuel from Europeans. It appears that Ukraine’s own production has also declined due to Russian strikes, prompting it to buy more from Europe. Ukraine has effectively become reliant on Europeans, who must ensure not only their own market but now also the Ukrainian one through imports and their own storage,” states Igor Yushkov.
A fourth distinction compared to last year is that gas consumption in Europe has modestly increased in 2025. “Gas consumption in the EU has begun recovering after plummeting in 2022-2023 due to excessively high prices. This uptick occurred because, overall, gas was not prohibitively expensive, with prices hovering around $400 per thousand cubic metres,” notes Yushkov.
However, cold weather is not currently the primary reason for the increased withdrawal of gas from UGS compared to last year, according to the expert.
What are the risks associated with this accelerated extraction of gas from underground storage facilities? The danger lies in the fact that there may be critically low gas levels remaining by the end of the year.
“The most extreme scenario would unfold if severe frosts arrive at the end of the heating season. If cold weather strikes in February and March and there is little gas left in storage, daily withdrawal will become increasingly complicated.
This would lead to a gas shortage, which would need to be covered solely by current imports. Consequently, Europe would have to compete with Asian markets for available LNG supplies. This scenario would result in rising gas prices, negatively impacting the European economy,” explains Yushkov.
Overall, there has been an increase in the share of LNG within the structure of gas imports to the European Union over the year. “The share of LNG in gas imports to the EU has risen from 37% to 45%. If the EU imported 297 million cubic metres of LNG daily during the first nine months of 2024, this figure has risen to 376 million cubic metres in the same period of 2025,” says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
However, as the heating season commences, demand escalates sharply – not only in Europe but also in Asia. Asian buyers are enticing large volumes of LNG away from Europe through competitive pricing.
The colder it gets in both Asia and Europe, the more intense the competition between the two regions for limited LNG supplies will become, ultimately driving prices upward, concludes Yushkov.
Source: VZGLYAD
