The government's first-ever ban on the export of aviation kerosene will help the market avoid unplanned spikes in fuel costs. The embargo will remain in effect until the end of November. According to the Cabinet of Ministers, the decision aims to ensure stability in the domestic market. Experts believe this will bring an additional approximately 2 million tonnes of fuel to the market but will not lead to a reduction in airfare prices. At the same time, the measure is expected to cool wholesale exchange prices, allowing airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal price surge, thereby preventing tickets from rising at an accelerated pace.
Temporary Ban on Aviation Kerosene Exports
The government has imposed a temporary ban on the export of aviation kerosene for the first time, which will be in effect until 30 November 2026. The decision aims to ensure a stable situation on the domestic fuel market, the Cabinet's press service reported.
"The government continues its work to maintain a reliable and uninterrupted supply of fuel to the domestic market. A new decree introduces a temporary ban on the export of jet fuel from Russia, including fuel purchased at exchange trading. The restriction will be in effect until 30 November 2026 inclusive," the statement reads.
The Cabinet noted that exceptions will be made for batches of aviation kerosene placed under customs procedures before the decree came into force, supplies under intergovernmental agreements, and fuel in technological tanks used by aircraft in transit.
Russia currently also has a ban on the export of petrol for all market participants until 31 July 2026. Until the same date, restrictions on the export of diesel fuel, marine fuel, and other types of gas oils remain in place for non-producers.
There is no official data on the volumes of aviation kerosene production and consumption in the Russian Federation. Izvestia has sent a request to the Ministry of Energy. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the volume of the Russian aviation kerosene market at the end of 2024 stood at 10.01 million tonnes per year, with production at 11.6 million tonnes. The surplus fuel was exported abroad.
According to the Minister of Transport, Andrey Nikitin, there is currently no shortage of aviation kerosene in Russia.
— At present, there is no deficit whatsoever. In any case, regardless of the situation, we proceed from the interests of our airlines, — he said.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, the traditional consumers of Russian-produced aviation kerosene are Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia.
— Export supplies outside the EAEU are gradually shrinking against the backdrop of growing domestic demand. For example, in April 2026, no aviation kerosene was shipped by sea, — she noted.
Earlier, media reports indicated that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had instructed further work on a number of issues to stabilise the domestic fuel market. These include consultations with Belarus to increase petrol supplies to Russia, as well as discussing the possibility of increasing payments under the import damping mechanism, including for Belarusian fuel, by making corresponding retroactive amendments to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation effective from 1 June 2026.
However, an industry source for Izvestia was unable to confirm this information. According to him, Minsk is already supplying fuel to the Russian market, which is produced from Russian oil.
— Moreover, Russia pays the damping mechanism to Belarusian producers, — the interlocutor noted.
Another industry source for Izvestia believes that if increasing damping payments is indeed under discussion, the Ministry of Finance is unlikely to agree to it.
— Last month, 207 billion rubles were paid out under the fuel damping mechanism, compared to the 15 billion rubles that oil companies paid in March, — he noted.
According to the National Exchange Price Agency, between 1 and 22 May, 17.34 thousand tonnes of petrol from Belarusian refineries were sold on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange in Russia. This is 58 times more than in the same period in 2025.
The two Belarusian refineries — Mozyr and Novopolotsk — produce 3–3.5 million tonnes of petrol per year, while domestic consumption amounts to up to 1.2 million tonnes per year.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, Russia produces over 40 million tonnes per year, while consumption amounts to approximately 38–39 million tonnes per year.
Why the Cabinet Decided on the Aviation Kerosene Export Ban
Last week, as Izvestia reported citing industry sources, the government was discussing imposing an export ban on both diesel and aviation fuel. According to the editorial office's interlocutors, this issue was raised at a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Against the backdrop of the escalating Middle East conflict, demand for, and competition for, Russian energy resources has sharply increased, experts noted. They described such a measure as an export ban on fuel as highly relevant given the overall situation on the global oil market. This is because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices make the petroleum products market extremely attractive and profitable, creating a temptation for Russian oil companies to increase their fuel supplies to external markets.
— To prevent this temptation from being realised, the government is imposing the embargo, or at least considering that possibility, — noted Valery Andrianov, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
At the same time, experts tended to believe that if an export ban were imposed, it would be on aviation kerosene, as the production of diesel fuel in Russia is more in surplus.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, Russia produces approximately 80 million tonnes of diesel per year and consumes only about half of this volume. Regarding aviation kerosene, production is approximately 11–12 million tonnes, with consumption around 10 million tonnes.
— Thus, the market will gain approximately 2 million tonnes of additional aviation fuel volumes, — Ekaterina Kosareva emphasised.
According to publicly available sources, 2 million tonnes of aviation kerosene is enough for 18,000 to 26,000 full refuellings of long-haul aircraft, or 66,000 to 133,000 refuellings of narrow-body (medium-haul) passenger aircraft. Russian civil aviation operates between 2,100 and 2,300 flights per day, meaning this volume would cover approximately two to three months of flights for the entire country.
According to Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the industry agency AviaPort, viewing the 2 million tonnes as a volume that cannot be exported due to the imposed ban does not automatically mean an increase in its consumption on the domestic market.
— According to statements from the Ministry of Transport and industry representatives, no fuel shortage is expected; however, there are also no grounds to forecast a significant increase in the volume of domestic traffic by the end of the year. Consequently, there are no prerequisites to believe that significantly more fuel will be required, — he noted.
Nevertheless, having reserves is a factor of strategic stability and is necessary, the expert believes. It also remains unclear whether the expert estimate of 2 million tonnes accounts for the circumstances under which fuel supplies to the external market may continue under intergovernmental agreements.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner", believes that systematic work is needed, including taking into account damping mechanisms for airlines.
— First and foremost, reserves should be built up, and secondly, price risks should be hedged to eliminate potential concerns about a kerosene shortage during certain periods. In this context, closing aviation fuel exports acts as a preventative measure aimed at saturating the domestic market, — the expert noted.
However, he believes that overall, economic entities are expected to demonstrate greater independence — they must understand that to increase aviation fuel consumption, they need to make purchases and hedge risks proactively, rather than shifting these responsibilities onto the Ministry of Energy and the government.
According to Valery Andrianov, in recent years, Russia has seen a surplus of aviation kerosene, meaning production (around 11.6 million tonnes per year) exceeded domestic consumption (approximately 8.5–9 million tonnes).
— At the same time, consumption is characterised by high unevenness — it increases in June-August, during the summer holiday season. Accordingly, 2–2.5 million tonnes per year were exported. The main supply destinations were Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan — as well as Turkey, Middle Eastern and Asian countries, — the analyst noted.
Izvestia has sent requests to all major oil companies and air carriers in the Russian Federation.
Impact of the Cabinet's Decision on the Market
According to the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, the price of aviation fuel in over-the-counter trading has risen by 7.14% since the beginning of May, from 78,991 rubles per tonne on 1 May to 84,634 rubles on 31 May. However, as of 25 May, one tonne of aviation kerosene cost 96,776 rubles.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, the excise duty on aviation kerosene has remained unchanged for almost 10 years: a rate of 2,800 rubles per tonne has been in effect since 2017. For comparison, the excise duty on Class 5 petrol increased from 10,130 rubles per tonne in 2017 to 17,959 rubles per tonne in 2026, and the excise duty on diesel fuel rose from 6,800 rubles to 12,738 rubles, respectively.
— A fixed excise duty should have a stabilising effect on the cost of aviation kerosene. However, in practice, exchange prices over the last two months have risen from 80,000 to almost 100,000 rubles per tonne. The export ban may slow down the price increase, but it will be some time before prices return to previous levels, — the expert emphasised.
According to Valery Andrianov, the export ban will insure against the risks of an aviation kerosene shortage in the country. Abandoning exports will allow reserves to be built up ahead of the peak summer navigation season, the Izvestia interlocutor believes.
An editorial office source in the industry said that currently, the share of fuel in the price of an airline ticket is not a fixed value, "it fluctuates significantly depending on the price of kerosene."
According to him, it is "approximately 25–30% of the ticket price, but can be lower when prices fall and higher when prices rise sharply."
—- As for ticket prices, the embargo on aviation kerosene exports will not lead to their reduction. After all, their cost is pressured by other factors: the rising cost of aircraft maintenance and repairs under sanctions, a shortage of spare parts, and overall inflation. However, at the same time, the embargo will help avoid a sharp increase in prices, which could have occurred in the event of an acute shortage of kerosene on the domestic market, — said Valery Andrianov.
In his opinion, the export ban is likely to cool wholesale prices on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, allowing airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal price spike. Consequently, tickets will not rise at an accelerated pace. At the same time, domestic consumption will not increase in physical volumes, but the market will be guaranteed insurance against shortages.
Source: Izvestia
