Current News in the Oil and Gas Sector and Energy as of 12 November 2025: Sanction Pressure on Russia, Oil Price Stability, Europe's Confidence in Gas Reserves, Renewable Energy Developments, and Stabilisation of the Russian Fuel Market
As of 12 November 2025, the global fuel and energy complex continues to operate amidst heightened geopolitical tensions, although signs of adaptation to the new realities are emerging. The sanction stand-off between Russia and the West continues to impact the sector: the European Union has approved its 19th package of restrictions aimed at reducing revenue in the Russian energy sector (including a phased withdrawal from Russian gas imports by 2026-2027). At the end of October, the United States imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest oil and gas companies, and their effects are already being felt – for instance, Lukoil announced force majeure at a major field in Iraq due to the freezing of payments in light of US sanctions. Meanwhile, Washington is demonstrating selective flexibility: after negotiations with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, US President Donald Trump agreed to grant Budapest a one-year exemption from sanctions for the purchase of Russian oil and gas. This move raises cautious hopes for partial easing of energy restrictions for specific allies, despite the overall sanction pressure remaining in place.
Under these circumstances, global commodity markets are maintaining relative stability. Oil prices are holding at a moderate level, with the Brent benchmark trading in the mid-$60s per barrel (approximately $63–65), significantly lower than the summer peaks. This reflects expectations of an oversupply by year's end – high output from OPEC+ and record production from the US are offsetting the slowdown in demand growth, creating a bearish market sentiment. Nonetheless, geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding sanctions are adding a small premium to oil prices, preventing a more substantial price drop.
The European gas market is confidently looking ahead to winter. Gas storage facilities in EU countries are filled to around 83–85%, which, although below last year's level, provides a considerable buffer in case of cold weather. Diversified imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Qatar, and other exporters largely compensate for the sharp decline in pipeline supplies from Russia. Wholesale gas prices in Europe remain significantly below the crisis peaks of 2022; volatility in recent months has been mainly driven by weather factors. In the absence of extreme cold, the EU has good prospects for getting through the upcoming heating season without price shocks.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum. In 2025, the record capacity addition of renewable energy continues – from large solar farms to offshore wind farms. Many countries are reporting new historic peaks in 'green' electricity generation, although traditional generation (gas, coal, nuclear) continues to play a critical role in ensuring grid reliability. Innovative trends are reinforcing this: worldwide sales of electric vehicles are accelerating, new hydrogen projects are launching, and energy companies are investing in energy storage systems and digitalisation of networks. These processes, on the one hand, reduce long-term demand for fossil fuels, while on the other, they necessitate infrastructure upgrades and additional capacity reserves.
In Russia, emergency measures to stabilise the domestic fuel market, adopted in the autumn, are starting to yield results. Extended export restrictions on gasoline and diesel until the end of the year, along with adjustments to damping subsidies for refineries, have helped bring down wholesale prices and eliminate shortages in problematic regions. After a surge in gasoline prices in August, the situation at filling stations has normalised; the government is already considering cautiously lifting export barriers by early 2026, provided domestic prices remain stable.
Key Takeaways
- Oil: High supply from OPEC+ and record production in the US are keeping oil prices within a moderate range (~$60–65 per barrel Brent) amid sluggish global demand growth.
- Gas: Europe is entering winter with substantial gas reserves (around 85% storage capacity); record LNG imports from the US, Qatar and other countries are compensating for declines in pipeline supplies and preventing sharp price increases.
- Sanctions and Geopolitics: New measures from the US and EU are increasing pressure on the Russian energy sector, forcing companies and investors to adapt and reorient supplies. At the same time, Washington's decision to exempt Hungary from some restrictions signals the possibility of exceptions for allies, despite overall sanction pressure.
- Asia: China and India remain key drivers of hydrocarbon demand. Economic slowdown in China is curbing consumption growth, while India, despite Western pressure, continues to purchase Russian oil to satisfy its growing demand. Both countries are simultaneously ramping up investment in renewable energy to enhance their energy security.
- Electricity and Renewables: Global generation from renewable sources in 2025 is hitting records – wind and solar capacity are expanding rapidly. However, the variable nature of 'green' energy necessitates the development of storage systems and support for base-load generation (gas, coal, nuclear) to ensure reliable power supply.
- Russian Fuel Market: In Russia, export restrictions on gasoline and diesel have been extended, which, together with adjustments to refinery subsidies, stabilised domestic prices after a summer spike. Additional fuel volumes have been directed to the domestic market, shortages at filling stations have been eliminated; the gradual removal of export barriers is being discussed for 2026, provided price stability is maintained.
Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices Amid Cautious Demand
Pricing Situation: As of mid-November, global oil prices remain relatively low after a decline in the autumn. The North Sea Brent blend hovers around $64 per barrel, approximately 10–15% below early summer levels. The market balance has tilted towards surplus: participants are anticipating excessive supply by the year's end. Although geopolitical factors (Middle Eastern conflicts, sanction risks) add a small risk premium, overall sentiment remains cautious and 'bearish', preventing prices from either skyrocketing or plummeting sharply.
- Supply: OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing production following a period of strict limitations. At an extraordinary meeting in early November, the alliance approved a symbolic increase in quotas – about +137,000 barrels per day starting in December, deferring more significant steps until the first quarter of 2026 (effectively announcing a pause on further production growth at the start of next year). Concurrently, US oil production has reached a historical high of around 13 million barrels per day due to the shale boom and easing of regulatory requirements. High volumes of supply from OPEC+, the US, and several other producers (including the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan in Iraq after a lengthy suspension) are ensuring the market is saturated with crude oil.
- Demand: The growth rate of global oil consumption has noticeably slowed. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand is expected to rise by less than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 (in comparison, growth exceeded 2 million barrels per day in 2023). OPEC's forecast also suggests moderate growth (~+1.3 million barrels per day). The slowdown in the global economy – especially in China – along with the effects of previously high prices (which stimulated energy conservation and increased efficiency) is hampering consumption. Additionally, the accelerated spread of electric vehicles and the shift to more efficient engines are gradually reducing demand for gasoline and diesel.
- Inventories: Commercial oil and fuel product inventories in non-OECD countries have grown in recent months, reflecting the surplus in the market. In the US, a planned replenishment of strategic oil reserves has started against the backdrop of record production and relatively low prices. Furthermore, some previously constrained volumes have returned to the global market: for example, oil exports have resumed via the Turkish port of Ceyhan from the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and shipments from Iran have increased. The accumulation of stocks reinforces the downward pressure on prices, signalling adequate oil supply even considering sanctions barriers.
Outlook: The oil market is approaching the end of the year in a state of relative equilibrium, but with a clear tendency towards oversupply. In the absence of serious unforeseen events, prices are likely to remain within a restrained corridor until early 2026. Concerns about supply disruptions or escalation of geopolitical conflicts prevent prices from collapsing but expectations of further supply growth from OPEC+ and shale companies reinforce a predominately 'bearish' sentiment. Oil companies are focused on controlling costs and hedging risks, while refiners optimise product assortments (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and logistics in the face of moderate prices and tight competition.
Gas Market: Europe Prepared for Winter Thanks to Reserves and LNG
Situation in Europe: The natural gas market remains relatively stable, despite the approaching winter chill. European countries have managed to prepare significant reserves in advance: by early November, the average storage level in the EU was about 85%. Although this is somewhat lower than last year’s record levels, such high reserves provide a solid safety buffer. Successful diversification of import sources has helped compensate for the reduction in Russian pipeline gas: LNG supplies to Europe reached peak levels in 2025 due to high export volumes from the US, Qatar, Australia, and other countries, and decreased demand for gas in Asia in the first half of the year allowed additional LNG shipments to be redirected to European terminals.
- Reserves and Imports: The high level of storage coupled with continued LNG inflows means Europe enters the heating season well-supplied with gas. Additionally, the relatively low competition for LNG from Asia has been a favourable factor – for example, China's gas imports have decreased year-on-year, temporarily freeing up some supplies for the European market. As a result, even with reduced pipeline gas supplies from the east, European consumers are currently not experiencing fuel shortages.
- Prices: Thanks to accumulated reserves and alternative supplies, European gas prices are being maintained at levels incomparable to crisis peaks in 2022. Over the past few months, prices have fluctuated within a moderate range (for reference: around €30 per MWh at the Dutch TTF hub), reacting mainly to weather changes and consumption levels. If the forthcoming winter is not exceptionally cold, and Asian buyers do not generate price spikes through competition for spot LNG cargoes, the European gas market stands a good chance of navigating the season without sharp price surges.
- Demand and Generation: Measures to enhance energy efficiency, replacing gas with renewable sources, and relatively weak industrial activity are dampening domestic gas consumption in Europe. However, gas remains a key balancing fuel in electricity generation. In periods of reduced output from wind or solar plants, EU energy systems are increasing their share of gas (and sometimes coal) generation. For instance, during an extended period of low wind in northern Europe, energy companies increased gas production by several tens of percent compared to levels from the previous year to compensate for the lack of 'green' electricity.
Markets and Risks: Overall, the European gas market is demonstrating resilience and adaptability. Traders and energy companies are particularly attentive to weather forecasts, consumption levels, and the scheduling of new LNG tanker arrivals. A key short-term risk is an unexpectedly harsh winter: a sudden drop in temperatures could increase gas draw from storage and push prices upward. Additionally, the situation in Asia remains a significant factor: a revival of Asian demand for LNG (for example, due to economic recovery in China or Japan) could intensify competition for available volumes. However, at present, Europe has sufficient reserves, and under average weather conditions, the gas market is expected to finish winter without severe disruptions.
Electricity Sector: Stable Supply and Interest in “Nuclear Renaissance”
In 2025, there have been no significant disruptions in the electricity sector – major energy systems have managed to ensure reliable supply for the growing demand. Global electricity consumption continues to rise, and forecasts suggest it will reach a new record by year-end. This is driven by both economic growth (particularly in developing countries) and the accelerated electrification of transport and industrial sectors. Despite a significant increase in load, energy companies and grid operators are maintaining control – reserve capacities have been mobilised, and repair schedules for generating equipment and network infrastructure have been optimised to avoid shortages during peak consumption hours.
One of the main priorities for governments has become energy security. In light of past crises, many countries are revising plans for phasing out capacity: some have postponed the closure of coal-fired power plants, while others have started to discuss extending the operational life of existing nuclear reactors. In fact, we can speak of an emerging "nuclear renaissance". For example, in Japan and South Korea, previously shut down nuclear power plants are resuming operations, while new units are being constructed or planned in China, India, the UK, and France. Even some EU countries, which previously intended to completely abandon nuclear energy, are reconsidering the extension of operational periods for existing reactors, given their role in stable power supply and achieving climate goals.
Thus, the electricity sector is currently presenting a dual picture: on one hand, the industry is rapidly 'greening' through renewable sources, while on the other, the importance of traditional base-load capacities is growing to ensure system stability. The long-term trend indicates a further increase in electricity's share of global energy consumption (as transport, heating, and industry become more electrified), meaning issues of power grid reliability, the creation of strategic reserve capacities, and infrastructure modernization will remain on the agenda. Investors are positively assessing initiatives to develop 'smart' grids and energy storage systems, designed to smooth peak loads and integrate variable generation from renewable sources.
Renewable Energy: Record Capacity Growth and Variability Issues
The renewable energy sector in 2025 is demonstrating accelerated development and setting new records. Preliminary estimates from relevant agencies indicate that over 300 GW of new renewable capacity has been brought online globally over the year – one of the highest figures in history. This growth is primarily driven by solar and wind power plants, with large projects being implemented in China, the US, India, the Middle East, and Europe. Many countries are reporting new peaks in 'green' generation. For instance, in Spain, Germany, and several other states, on certain days the share of energy from wind and solar exceeded 50–60%, and Australia and several EU countries are periodically covering their daily consumption entirely through solar generation.
However, such rapid progress reveals problems as well. The variable nature of renewable sources – dependence on weather and time of day – continues to pose challenges for energy systems. During calm or cloudy periods, renewable energy generation plummets, forcing the use of backup capacities powered by gas, coal, or nuclear (as noted, such situations arose this autumn in Europe during prolonged calm). To smooth these fluctuations, robust energy storage systems are required. In 2025, investments in industrial batteries, hydrogen-based energy storage projects, and the construction of pumped-storage facilities are expanding. However, the existing systems are still insufficient, leading specialists to call for accelerated implementation.
Despite these challenges, the trend remains unchanged: renewable energy is capturing an increasing market share. Alongside environmental goals, economic efficiency has become a significant driver: the cost of electricity generation from new solar and wind installations in most regions is already comparable to or lower than traditional power plants. Moreover, the adjacent 'green' economy sector is growing – in 2025, records were registered in electric vehicle sales and installations of distributed generation systems (such as household solar panels). All this indicates the beginning of qualitative changes in the global energy balance, although the path to a fully carbon-neutral system will still require significant investments and technological breakthroughs.
Coal Sector: Long-term Decline Amid Price Stabilisation
The global coal market in 2025 is influenced by a sustained trend towards a reduction in the use of this fuel in the energy sector. Analysts note that global coal consumption has plateaued and is likely to remain around current levels in the coming years, with a potential downward trend. Following a record 2024 (when demand reached an all-time high of approximately 8.8 billion tonnes), 2025 is witnessing a slight decline, primarily due to developed countries actively replacing coal with cleaner sources. Prices for thermal coal have stabilised at relatively low levels compared to the peak levels of two years ago – due to the absence of shortages and excessive mining capacities.
Many governments continue to declare policies aimed at phasing out coal generation. In several developed countries, deadlines for closing the last coal-fired power plants have been set for the 2030s to 2040s. In developing economies, where coal still represents a significant part of the energy balance (e.g., in India, China, Indonesia), the focus is on emission reduction technologies and a gradual decrease in coal's share as renewable energy sources are scaled up. Even now, the growth of renewable capacity in many regions is outpacing the commissioning of new coal-fired plants. Investors are increasingly cautious regarding the coal sector due to high climate risks and tightening environmental regulations.
Nonetheless, short-term spikes in demand for coal are still possible due to specific conditions. For instance, during the summer of 2025, against the backdrop of extreme heat and rising electricity consumption in Asia, some countries temporarily increased imports of thermal coal. In August, global coal supplies for power stations reached their highest levels since the end of 2024 due to increased purchases from China and several other Asian countries. However, by autumn, the situation returned to normal: demand in Asia declined slightly due to mild weather and economic conditions (in India, for example, in October, coal generation fell by 13% year-on-year due to heavy rains and weak industrial demand). Thus, short-lived spikes do not negate the downward trend. It is expected that coal's share in global generation will steadily decrease, and any price increase for coal will be temporary and quickly offset when conditions normalise.
Overall, the coal sector is undergoing a structural transformation. Companies either need to diversify towards other resources or invest in clean technologies to remain competitive. In the short term, the coal market will likely remain relatively balanced: supply is adequate, and demand is gradually shifting downwards. A key unknown for coal producers remains the pace of the energy transition – the more actively countries implement alternative capacities, the faster coal will lose its standing on a global scale.
Oil Product and Refining Market: Over Capacity and Stable Prices
By the end of 2025, the global oil product market is characterised by stable supply and the absence of acute imbalances. Prices for major fuel types (gasoline, diesel) have decreased compared to last year's peak values, reflecting the cheaper cost of crude oil and the lack of shortages in key markets. Even jet fuel, for which demand is recovering as international air travel revives, remains significantly cheaper than during the price spike of 2022-2023. For refining companies, however, the situation is not entirely straightforward: increased raw material and energy costs, as well as a structural decline in demand for traditional fuels in developed countries, keep refinery margins under pressure.
- Supply: The commissioning of new refining capacities in the Middle East and Asia in recent years has significantly increased global fuel supply. Major modern refineries in China, the Gulf countries, and Southeast Asia have reached full capacity, adding millions of tonnes of gasoline, diesel, and petrochemical feedstock to the market. Concurrently, several ageing refineries in Europe and North America have reduced processing or been shut down due to low profitability and strict environmental regulations. As a result, total global refining capacities now exceed current demand levels, ensuring sufficient volumes of fuel in the international market.
- Demand: Gasoline consumption is stagnating or even declining in developed economies as the electric vehicle fleet grows and fuel efficiency in internal combustion engine vehicles increases. Demand for diesel fuel is also under pressure: the transport sector and industry are implementing more efficient technologies and are transitioning to alternative fuels (gas, electricity, biofuels). The only segment where noticeable consumption growth is observed is aviation fuel. With the recovery of international tourism and business activity, the use of jet fuel is increasing, although globally it has not yet reached pre-crisis levels of 2019.
- Regulation in Russia: In the Russian fuel sector, the government has continued its policy of strict control over domestic prices as of autumn 2025. It has extended the temporary export ban on automotive gasoline at least until the end of the year (with an option for renewal in 2026), and diesel exports are only permitted if the domestic market is fully supplied – effectively maintaining quantitative export restrictions. Concurrently, the damping compensation mechanism for refineries has been adjusted: the price threshold for subsidies has been raised, which substantially reduces payouts beyond this point. This lowers the attractiveness of fuel exports at high global prices and encourages oil companies to divert their products to the domestic market. Additionally, extra volumes of gasoline and diesel have been released from state reserves to supply regions that faced acute shortages during the summer – these measures have helped to normalise the retail situation.
Results for Russia: The set of measures taken has stabilised the situation in the domestic fuel market by November. Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel, which reached record levels in August, have significantly retreated and are now holding within a narrow corridor. Retail prices have also ceased to rise rapidly; although a litre of fuel is still more expensive than a year ago, the pace of increases has slowed considerably. Filling stations in remote and southern regions (for example, Crimea, the Far East), where the situation was most tense during the summer, are now well supplied with necessary fuel volumes. The harvesting campaign, which previously stimulated diesel demand, has successfully concluded. Experts note that if oil prices remain at the current low levels, the Russian government may cautiously consider easing export restrictions in early 2026. However, such steps will be possible only if the domestic market is fully saturated and fuel prices for end consumers are kept under control.
