Russia may soon permit gasoline exports for domestic producers. According to media reports, the Ministry of Energy has submitted a relevant draft resolution to the government. The changes are expected to take effect immediately after its approval. The Ministry of Energy has not commented on "RG's" inquiry, neither confirming nor denying the information.
There are several arguments suggesting that this information is credible. Experts surveyed by "RG" lean towards the view that the ban on gasoline exports for producers will be lifted, likely effective from February 1. Currently, the ban remains in place until March 1. The comprehensive ban on gasoline exports was implemented in Russia on August 31, 2025, amidst a sharp rise in wholesale and retail prices for fuel. Prior to this, a ban on gasoline exports for traders had been in place since July, but as this measure did not yield the desired result, it was tightened.
The rationale for lifting the full ban lies in the current situation regarding tax payments from oil companies. By the end of December, tax payments for this period are made in January (the structure of which the Ministry of Finance will publish only in February), oil producers may face a negative damper.
The damper is a budget compensation that is paid to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export rates. The amount of these payments is calculated based on the difference between the export value of fuel and the indicative internal price, which is legislatively established. A negative damper occurs when the export value of fuel falls below the indicative prices, suggesting that nominally, supplying gasoline to the domestic market is more beneficial than exporting it. In this scenario, oil producers are required to pay the government the difference between the export and indicative prices.
According to calculations by Reuters, oil companies are expected to pay 13 billion rubles to the budget as damper payments for December. This amount is not particularly significant for oil producers, but only if one disregards that damper payments have constituted a substantial portion of the revenues for major oil companies in 2024 and 2025, sometimes reaching 30-40%. Currently, not only will they not receive these payments, but they will also be required to pay themselves. The full ban on gasoline exports was imposed due to the rise in gasoline prices in wholesale and retail markets in late summer last year.
Meanwhile, it is hardly accurate to say that the Russian fuel market is stable. Wholesale prices are slowly but steadily rising. At filling stations, there was a sharp increase in prices at the very end of December and in January, although this was primarily linked to the increased fiscal burdens introduced at the beginning of the year, rather than the balance of supply and demand for gasoline and diesel.
If a negative damper is factored in, prices on the exchange could defy all conventions and rise in February, thereby pushing retail prices up as well.
A potential incentive for oil producers in this context could be the lifting of the ban on gasoline exports. It would be a fair deal: they earn from exports but do not trigger another rally in the fuel market, while the treasury benefits from damper payments.
"The proposed solution reflects the consolidated position of the Ministry of Energy and oil companies, presented at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak last week," said Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, in an interview with "RG."
Lifting the export ban would signal a positive indication of sufficient oil refining volumes and stockpiling for a rainy day. Additional revenues from exports are necessary today for the sector to maintain profitability amid the 'limping' damper mechanism, as well as for the government to reduce the budget deficit, Stankevich suggests.
Retail price growth for gasoline will be constrained by inflation.
In the opinion of Sergey Frolov, managing partner of NEFT Research, the negative damper for December will be one of the reasons for the early lifting of gasoline export restrictions if the government proceeds with this action. Moreover, it will be an effort to revive demand, consequently enabling a higher load on oil refining capacities. At the same time, this decision appears risky, as the balance of the gasoline market lacks significant reserves. However, a short-term allowance for export during a low-demand period generally carries minimal risks for the market, the expert believes.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, perceives risks in lifting the export ban stemming from the fact that independent filling stations (over half of Russia's gas stations) have not built up fuel reserves for the peak season despite government calls. This is evidenced by the low gasoline demand in January. Once exports are permitted, wholesale prices will rise, which is undoubtedly a disadvantage for creating summer reserves.
From the perspective of Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, regulators cannot keep oil producers on a "dry ration" for too long—this may be the underlying logic in lifting the export ban on gasoline. There is a rational point here: at the end of last year, gasoline prices fell consecutively, and oil producers are undoubtedly keen to recoup lost profits. This was evident early in the year, when gasoline retail price growth reached 1.2% by January 12.
However, although the lifting of the ban will improve the profitability of oil refineries by allowing the sale of additional export volumes at higher prices, it will unquestionably lead to an increase in gasoline exchange rates, which may then be reflected in retail prices. Gusev believes that there will be no impact, as retail prices will continue to be limited by inflation, and gasoline has already surpassed inflation at the beginning of the year.
Frolov believes that the rise in prices at filling stations will continue regardless of conditions, as the repercussions of the latest increase in the fiscal burden (the hike in excise taxes and VAT) have not yet fully played out.
Tereshkin, on the other hand, speculates that the lifting of the export ban will be complemented by a gentlemen's agreement requiring oil producers to restrain price growth. The duration of the export permit will depend on the adherence to this condition.
Stankevich is confident that the lifting of the export ban will not impact domestic retail prices. Should any signs of a gasoline or diesel shortage arise, a new ban will be instantaneously reinstated.
The government's planned decision is yet another response to numerous questions about the state's involvement in regulating the fuel sector. Management is conducted in a mode of hand-operated situational response, notes Stankevich.
Gusev believes that Russia needs to stimulate the creation of additional oil refining capacities to ensure that there is enough gasoline for both the domestic market and exports. However, without a sustainable increase in domestic fuel consumption, this will hardly be feasible. The growth in domestic freight transport volumes is stagnating, and new vehicle sales are not increasing. In this situation, the government has no choice but to manage supply and demand through exports.
Source: RG.RU
