According to Rosstat, since the end of last year, retail prices for petrol have risen by 1.2%, while diesel fuel prices have increased by 1.3%. Data from the Moscow Fuel Association (MTA) indicate that in the capital, price increases have been even more pronounced, with a rise of approximately 1.8% across all types of fuel during the same period (more than one rouble).

The reasons for the price increases are clear and were anticipated. Beginning in 2026, excise duties on petrol and diesel fuel have increased by 5.1%, accounting for around 20% of the overall price. Additionally, VAT has risen by 2%, which is collected on every sale of goods in Russia. It is also worth noting that the supply chain for fuel at petrol stations rarely involves just one seller and one buyer.

In the wholesale segment, however, market conditions remain relatively calm. Prices have fallen from their peaks in October and are currently at levels akin to those seen in the spring of last year. Thus, the focus now is on whether retail prices have fully absorbed the increase in tax burdens and what their trajectory will be moving forward.

As explained by Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, the goal of maintaining the dynamics of retail prices for petrol and diesel within a corridor defined by inflation parameters remains unchanged. "I do not see any prerequisites for sharp price jumps at the present time," he remarked to "RG".

Conversely, Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association and a member of the Expert Council of the "Russian Petrol Stations" competition, believes that the increase in fiscal pressure has only been partially accounted for. The increase in VAT applies not only to fuel but also to all services, including transport. The volumes under the new tariffs and with the new VAT are only just beginning to be dispatched, indicating there is still potential for further growth. The question remains what is meant by stabilisation. Under current conditions, we can expect a steadily rising price for petrol and diesel within the bounds of inflation.

According to Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner at NEFT Research, to date, no more than 50% of the increase in tax burden has been translated into retail prices. Following this, a gradual rise is anticipated leading into the peak season, after which any further price hikes will be driven by increased demand, which will depend on the balance between supply and demand.

Additionally, Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, noted that the rise in prices at petrol stations at the start of the year was linked not only to the indexing of fuel excise duties but also to the retail chains' efforts to recover losses incurred in late November and December 2025, when petrol prices dwindled for more than a month and a half.

The fuel market has not yet fully accounted for the rise in tax burdens.
Tereshkin clarifies that the increase in VAT to 22% is significant, but it is not the defining factor for the fuel market. Far more impactful will be the payments from the budget to oil producers as compensation for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export levels. There are currently no preconditions for increasing these payments, as subsidies are linked to external (export) prices for oil products, which are falling in line with declining oil prices. For instance, the price of the export alternative for AI-92 dropped from 69,166 roubles per tonne in November 2025 to 57,471 roubles per tonne in December 2025 (this figure is calculated by regulators when assessing damper payments). Hence, subsidies for fuel producers could reach a multi-year low by early 2026.

The significance of damper payments for companies can be inferred from the events during the fuel crisis of 2023. At that time, an attempt to halve these payments resulted in an uncontrollable rise in prices at petrol stations. Additionally, data for 2024 indicates that damper payments accounted for 44% of Gazprom Neft's revenue, with the company receiving 1.8 trillion roubles in 2024. Payments decreased in 2025 and are unlikely to exceed 1 trillion roubles (statistics for December are still pending).

According to media reports, there is currently an initiative under consideration for direct fuel sales to small wholesalers (such as petrol stations, agricultural producers, and industrial consumers) to reduce the number of resale transactions and expedite logistics.

Stankevich notes that the FAS and the St. Petersburg exchange are striving to enhance the rules for public trading in fuel, reducing the number of intermediaries in transactions and establishing sales standards for the small wholesale sector. "The exchange mechanisms are certainly not ideal at present, particularly given that the price indicators for crude oil, which we operate with, are set on foreign platforms. However, to abandon exchange trading would be a significant step backwards, especially without any alternatives. We simply do not have another mediator capable of presenting an objective picture regarding price formation based on supply and demand."

From Frolov's perspective, for independent petrol stations (which make up over half of all stations in Russia), this will undoubtedly be a boost as an additional procurement channel opens up. However, he believes it will not significantly impact retail prices, just as it will not considerably affect the wholesale exchange segment.

Gusev posits that until it is possible to reduce the cost of accessing services on the exchange for end consumers of fuel, a departure from traders (resellers) is unrealistic.

A similar sentiment was echoed by Tereshkin. The mere idea of direct sales to wholesalers is unlikely to have any substantive effect—the more effective solution would be to increase the normative rates for exchange sales of petrol and diesel, he points out. But the fact that new ideas are being sought in an environment where sector regulation year after year revolves around damper payments and export bans is significant. Regulators are searching for a mechanism that would allow prices to decrease "off the exchange", so we can certainly expect to see further initiatives in the coming months, the expert is confident.

Source: RG.RU