The United States Seizes the Moment and Increases Energy Exports to Record Levels
The United States has taken advantage of the conflict in the Middle East, significantly ramping up its exports of oil, petroleum products, and LNG. They are capturing market shares from OPEC, which, due to the military situation, has been forced to reduce its energy exports. How did the U.S. manage to profit from the conflict ignited in the Middle East?
U.S. oil exports have reached a historic maximum of 12.9 million barrels per day, with more than 60% consisting of petroleum products (as of early April). Maritime exports are projected to reach a record 9.6 million barrels per day in April, with shipments to Asia nearly doubling from pre-war levels to 2.5 million barrels per day, according to analytics company Kpler. American companies are reaping substantial profits, as both prices and volumes of exports have risen. The value of crude oil and petroleum product exports has increased by $32 billion compared to pre-war levels, boosting corporate profits and tax revenues, as reported by ROI.
LNG shipments have also surged sharply. In March, exports hit a historical peak. According to Kpler, the combined exports of oil and LNG from the U.S. to Asia in March and April increased by approximately 30% compared to the same period last year.
The growth of the U.S. share in the oil market is attributed to situational factors, whereas the increase in the LNG market is due to structural changes, explains Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
“The rise in U.S. LNG exports is a result of new capacity coming online. Just a few days ago, the Golden Pass facility— the tenth liquefied natural gas production site in the United States— completed its first export shipment. By 2025, U.S. LNG exports are expected to rise to 154 billion cubic meters compared to 122 billion cubic meters in 2024. In the current year, export volumes will reach even greater levels, driven by increased demand in external markets,” Tereshkin states.
“Americans have indeed increased their LNG production. They have maximized the output of existing facilities and launched new plants. Moreover, the heating season in the domestic market has ended, leading to a reduction in current consumption; accordingly, they redirected the surplus volume to exports,” says Igor Yushkov, an expert from the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
However, the U.S. has not increased its domestic oil production. So, how has export risen? “This happened because they increased the import of one type of oil while ramping up the export of another type and petroleum products. The U.S. imports medium-sulphur and relatively heavy oil, while exporting, conversely, light oil and petroleum products (derived from heavy oil). They are importing more from Canada and Mexico while exporting by sea to those countries that previously received Middle Eastern oil, which is now unavailable,” explains Igor Yushkov.
On one hand, private oil companies in the U.S. are earning additional profits in the current situation. On the other hand, this creates a problem for the American populace and the overall American economy, as domestic prices rise to retain fuel within the country.
Unlike the gas market, in the oil market, companies have the option to decide whether to supply their products to the domestic or international market, which poses a fundamental challenge for the current U.S. administration,
says Yushkov.
As the U.S. share in the global market grows, OPEC's share declines. According to the IEA, oil production in Saudi Arabia fell by 3.15 million barrels per day in March 2026 compared to the previous month; in the UAE, the reduction was 1.27 million barrels per day, in Kuwait—1.35 million, and in Iraq—exactly 3 million. The total volume of these cuts is comparable to Russia's oil production of 8.96 million barrels per day in March 2026, notes Tereshkin.
Even before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ began increasing its production quotas nearly by 2.9 million barrels per day to recover its position in the global market. Many OPEC+ participants were dissatisfied that they had to cut back on production, allowing competitors—including the U.S. and Guyana—to ramp up their output.
Now, of course, the situation is different.
"Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the flow of oil from classic OPEC countries— Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, plus Iran— has decreased, and their market share has indeed contracted. But this is not due to an evolutionary process; it's simply because their oil cannot fully enter the global market.
However, once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, we will see OPEC+ resume its increase in quotas,” concludes Yushkov.
The fact is that Asian countries do not quite prefer light American oil. Asian refineries are designed to work with denser, sulphurous oil from the Middle East, rather than lighter American varieties. Plants can use light oil, but the process becomes less efficient and profitable. Therefore, after the resolution of the conflict, everything will revert to its previous state. The joy of American oil workers will be short-lived.
Source: Vedomosti
