A complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for more than five weeks could drive the price of Brent crude oil up to $150 per barrel or higher. This assessment has been presented in a review by analysts at consulting firm B1 (formerly EY in Russia). The authors of the report outline three potential scenarios for the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East: "Prolonged Escalation," "Localisation," and "Complete Blockade." In the first scenario, the continuation of the current situation—characterised by limited traffic and regular attacks on vessels—over the course of several months would lead to a reduction in oil production in the Gulf countries by 10 million barrels per day by February 2026, maintaining oil prices above $100 per barrel. Under the "Localisation" scenario, where traffic resumes within a few weeks and the Strait is patrolled by relevant nations, oil prices would not exceed $100 per barrel. The third scenario foresees a complete cessation of shipping in the Strait, including the passage of Iranian vessels. This would result in an even more substantial decrease in oil production in the Middle East (B1 did not provide specific forecasts) and a significant oil deficit in Asia-Pacific countries, the analysts note. The five-week duration cited in the review regarding the impact of the blockade on oil prices is based on the fact that a tanker transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to buyers in East and Southeast Asia takes up to 2.5 weeks, as explained to Vedomosti by Alexey Lavrukhin, head of the B1 analytical centre. After five weeks, the halt in supplies would become evident, prompting active withdrawals from storage and rapid searches for new suppliers, he remarked. According to B1, from 2023 to 2025, between 20% and 25% of the global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman in the Indian Ocean. Alternative routes—such as the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia (with a capacity of 5–7 million barrels per day), the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline in the UAE (1.5–1.8 million barrels per day), and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in Iraq and Turkey (1.6 million barrels per day)—can only export oil volumes that comprise approximately 50% of those supplied via the Strait of Hormuz. Following the onset of the armed conflict between the US and Israel with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was reportedly blocked by Iranian military forces in March; however, according to MarineTraffic vessel tracking data, some vessels have managed to pass through. Iran has not impeded friendly vessels, such as those from China, from traversing the Strait; yet, most exporters are avoiding this route due to high risks, as outlined in B1’s report. Disruptions to shipping in the Persian Gulf and reciprocal attacks on infrastructure have significantly reduced oil production in the region. According to calculations by Vedomosti based on OPEC data, oil production in the Gulf countries decreased by 33% in March 2026, down by 8 million barrels per day from February levels, reaching 16.5 million barrels per day. The parties declared a two-week ceasefire on 8 April, during which Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On 11-12 April, the first round of American-Iranian negotiations took place in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, but did not yield any results. On 12 April, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would block the Strait to prevent the passage of Iranian vessels and those that had paid Iran for transit. The blockade commenced on 13 April, and on 18 April, Iran announced the closure of the Strait in response to the US blockade. The second round of American-Iranian negotiations, scheduled for 21 April, has yet to take place. At the same time, Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the maritime blockade of the Strait, which is not complete—some vessels, including Iranian ones, are still able to transit. According to Kpler data reported by CNN, from 24 to 27 April, 17 vessels, including four tankers, passed through the Strait. Bloomberg reports that, at the beginning of this week, vessel movement through the Strait has nearly stopped. The price of Brent crude oil has held steady at around $100 per barrel since mid-March 2026. According to ICE exchange data, on 27 April, June futures for Brent crude traded at $108 per barrel. On 27 February, before the onset of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the price was $72.50 per barrel. Sergey Teryoshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, considers a rise in oil prices to $150 per barrel in 2026 to be an unrealistic scenario. He believes that supply disruptions from the Middle East will be offset by strategic reserves in China and other countries, resulting in an average price for Brent crude this year of no more than $80 per barrel. Senior analyst at investment bank Sinara, Alexey Kokin, and analyst at Finam, Nikolay Dudchenko, expect that oil production in the Gulf countries could fall by 10 million barrels per day to February levels as early as April. Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, anticipates that this month’s production decline will amount to 9.1 million barrels per day. Should the Strait of Hormuz face a prolonged blockade, the decline could reach 10–12 million barrels per day, according to the expert. Dudchenko suggests that production could hit 14 million barrels per day even without a full blockade of the Strait. In such circumstances, oil prices could rise to $110–120 per barrel, predicts Kokin. Dudchenko believes that if the current situation persists, prices may reach $120–130 per barrel, with a potential rise to $150 per barrel in the event of shipping issues in the Red Sea. Kasatkin thinks that if the blockade continues, oil prices could reach $145–155 per barrel and, in case of further escalations involving strikes on oil infrastructure, prices could surge to $200–215 per barrel. The formation of oil shortages in the market is occurring gradually, and a deficit is already becoming apparent in some Asian countries, notes Kasatkin. According to the expert, Pakistan is in the most critical situation (with 15 days of raw material reserves, and 85% dependence on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz), followed by Bangladesh (12 days), while India (30 days) and Taiwan (45 days) are in a "high-risk zone." Kokin also identifies potential serious issues for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka, in addition to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Source: Vedomosti