The appeal of Russian diesel fuel in the global market is increasing amid the Hormuz crisis. Exports from the Baltic port of Primorsk amounted to 1.4 million tonnes between 1 and 15 March, with 29 vessel arrivals, according to data from the Centre for Price Indices (CPI), which was reviewed by RBC. This volume is nearly comparable to the total shipments from the same port for the entire month of February.
Following an attack by Ukrainian drones, fuel tanks at the Primorsk port in the Leningrad region were damaged and a fire broke out, as reported by regional governor Alexander Drozdenko on 23 March. According to Reuters agency, the port suspended the loading of oil and oil products.
In February, total diesel fuel exports from Russian ports showed a decline, amounting to 2.3 million tonnes for the month, approximately 30% lower than in January. The primary destination for shipments was Brazil, to which Russia supplied 680,000 tonnes of diesel fuel, representing a 4% decrease month-on-month. Exports to Turkey fell by 28% to 400,000 tonnes, while shipments to African countries decreased by 46%, down to 531,000 tonnes. Deliveries to other destinations dropped by 19%, reaching 453,000 tonnes.
Gasoline is being exported from Russia to distant foreign markets, but the volumes are minimal, two industry sources told RBC. Meanwhile, sales of gasoline on the St. Petersburg Exchange slumped in March: at the beginning of the month, the total daily sales volume exceeded 50,000 tonnes, but by 20 March it dropped to 34,000 tonnes.
Russia supplies petroleum products through intergovernmental agreements (mainly to EAEU countries and Mongolia) even during periods of export bans on gasoline and diesel fuel.
In March, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources of Mongolia, Bagzsurengiin Enhtuvisn, stated that the country will meet its fuel needs entirely through imports from Russia due to China's export ban on petroleum products arising from the situation in the Hormuz Strait.
A Russia-Mongolia agreement concluded in 2024 anticipates the supply of 1.8 to 1.9 million tonnes of petroleum products and 60,000 tonnes of aviation kerosene annually on a mutually beneficial basis.
Will Export Growth Impact the Domestic Market?
Experts surveyed believe that the increase in export revenues for Russian oil companies will lead to enhanced refinery margins and reduce price pressures on the domestic market.
In 2025, oil producers were deprived of high export revenues for various reasons, forcing them to "recoup" these losses by raising prices in the domestic market, notes independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov. The net profit of Russian petroleum producers fell by 16% last year to 2.26 trillion roubles. Additionally, oil companies received fewer payments from the government through the fuel dampening mechanism—882 billion roubles compared to 1.8 trillion roubles for 2024. All these factors resulted in declining refinery margins.
The 2025 Crisis
Exchange prices for gasoline in Russia hit historical records in the summer and autumn of 2025. Retail prices experienced significant increases, and some regional heads complained about fuel shortages at local service stations.
However, by mid-October, exchange quotations began to retreat from record highs. As explained to journalists by the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Alexander Novak, this occurred amid export restrictions and increased production following the resumption of refinery operations after maintenance.
By the end of the year, the government allowed companies with production capacities exceeding 1 million tonnes of petroleum products per year to export diesel fuel abroad. At the end of January 2026, the ban on gasoline export for oil companies was also lifted. The permission is valid until 31 July.
"Now, Russian oil companies have received a gift in the form of rising global petroleum product prices, which will lead to increased refinery margins," believes Rodionov. Therefore, the expert sees no threat to the domestic market. Consequently, the government will not need to impose an export ban in the coming months, despite the seasonal rise in demand from agricultural producers.
According to the National Price Exchange Agency, leading up to the high consumption season, buyers have shown increased interest in summer grades of diesel fuel, with supply volumes continuing to grow since late February. This situation is typical for every year: in 2025, mid-March demand for summer diesel fuel reached 53.3% of total sales volume.
The Russian fuel market is traditionally characterised by a surplus, according to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the Open Oil Market petroleum marketplace. Until 2022, the ratio of exports to the domestic market was 50-50; afterward, it shifted to 40-60 in favour of the Russian market due to increased demand for heavy machinery. However, surpluses remain, and it makes sense to redirect them to external markets, especially now when reduced transit of raw materials through the Hormuz Strait has led to rising global prices, he adds.
Meanwhile, diesel fuel prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange have surged by 20% since the beginning of the month, concluding trading on Monday at 67,774 roubles per tonne, which corresponds to levels seen in mid-September 2025. Prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline have also risen by over 12% during this period, reaching 67,603 roubles and 71,398 roubles per tonne, respectively.
Managing Partner at NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, believes that this increase will be tempered by dampening payments. If this does not help contain prices, the government will swiftly reimpose export restrictions. The analyst suggests that such a scenario could occur as early as April.
The essence of the fuel dampening mechanism is that the government compensates refiners through subsidies, motivating oil companies to supply more gasoline and diesel to the domestic market instead of exporting. If selling fuel abroad is more profitable, the authorities compensate oil companies for the difference with exports through the dampening mechanism, thereby stabilising price dynamics. However, if domestic fuel prices rise above certain thresholds, dampening payments are nullified.
Tereshkin believes that there is no need to impose export restrictions on diesel fuel. Due to the existing surplus, the increase in its price is more moderate than for gasoline. According to Rosstat, from late last year until 16 March, the accumulated increase in retail prices for diesel fuel was 1.6%, while for gasoline it was 2.4%, with inflation at 2.6%.
From 1 to 23 March 2026, gasoline sales on the St. Petersburg Exchange totalled 691.21 thousand tonnes, which is 5.7% higher than in March 2025 and 16.8% more than in February of this year, as reported by the National Exchange Pricing Agency to RBC. The total volume of diesel fuel sales in March amounted to 1.2 million tonnes, exceeding the figures from the same period last year by 11% and 5.1% more than in February 2026. In the second half of March, market participants indeed noted increased buyer interest in petroleum products. However, the key factor here is the seasonal aspect: the start of spring fieldwork, increased automotive transport activity, as well as scheduled refinery repairs, the agency added.
RBC has reached out to the Ministry of Energy for comment.
Source: RBC
