The gasoline in question is being shipped to Russia by sea from India and Morocco, which has been delivered to the port of Murmansk and has begun trading on the exchange. It can be stated that the demand for such imported gasoline in Russia is currently close to zero. Fuel from Belarus, for instance, is often supplied under direct contracts between suppliers and buyers, with transaction volumes being high; since the beginning of August, over 16.74 thousand tonnes of Belarusian gasoline have been sold through the St. Petersburg Exchange.
The import of fuel into Russia has been permitted since July 1 to prevent market shortages during the high-demand holiday season. The volumes of Russian oil refining have been inadvertently reduced due to unscheduled shutdowns for the repair of oil refineries (ORFs) following drone strikes.
This has primarily impacted the supply of gasoline in the domestic market, as production has only been 10-15% higher than consumption in Russia. Gasoline exports were banned as of April 2026, but by the end of summer, additional volumes were required due to seasonal demand growth.
The main flow of fuel imports has originated from Belarusian ORFs (with 212 thousand tonnes in July), although some supplies have also been sourced from India and Morocco. According to Reuters, by the end of July, around 140 thousand tonnes of gasoline had arrived in Murmansk. Furthermore, S&P Global Commodities at Sea reports that approximately 23 thousand tonnes of gasoline from Turkey are currently en route to Russia. Notably, these shipments are directed not to the nearest Russian port of Novorossiysk but to Baltic ports, which will certainly increase transportation costs.
Gasoline from India is initially significantly more expensive than Russian gasoline.Meanwhile, the fuel situation in certain regions of Russia remains tense. Some petrol stations are closed, while long queues often form at those that are operational. The main issue with fuel imported from the far abroad, delivered by sea, is its price. Since imported gasoline is initially more expensive than Russian, these supplies are subject to a damping mechanism, which is a subsidy from the budget that compensates importers for part of the difference between the indicative wholesale prices (set by the government for the year) in Russia and the fuel prices in external markets, including delivery costs. However, even with this compensation, Indian or Moroccan gasoline (AI-92) has traded on the St. Petersburg Exchange at a price of 105 thousand rubles per tonne, which is 39% higher than the exchange quotes for AI-92 (75,530 rubles per tonne).
This is not the price that buyers would like to see, nor is it a price at which gasoline can be resold at petrol stations, noted Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association, and member of the Expert Council of the "Petrol Stations of Russia" competition in a conversation with "RG". With delivery included, the price tag for such gasoline at petrol stations would be close to 100 rubles or higher. However, without the damping mechanism, it would be priced at 150 or 160 rubles per litre, the expert pointed out.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, prices for Indian fuel will significantly exceed supply prices from Russian ORFs, even taking into account subsidies under the "import" damping mechanism. Subsidies will be paid with a certain lag, similar to the payments for the damping mechanism for Russian ORFs. Due to the necessity to "recoup" high logistical costs, fuel importers will provide substantial discounts to end buyers.
Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, believes there is also the factor of rising logistics costs due to increased freight rates and general supply risks to Russia. In addition to maritime delivery, fuel must be distributed across Russia, which also incurs extra expenses. This explains the high cost of gasoline on the exchange.
Gusev emphasises that the situation with imported maritime fuel supplies should normalise. People are sufficiently conservative; they are hesitant to purchase new supplies. For instance, it is currently unclear how to supply the market with lower environmental class gasoline (Euro-2, Euro-3, Euro-4), the circulation of which has now been allowed. We need to wait a couple of weeks for the situation to normalise and for everyone to understand how to proceed, according to the expert.
It should be noted that demand for gasoline in Russia traditionally declines in the second half of September, which should also positively affect fuel availability and petrol station prices. Furthermore, this year, considering the existing difficulties, it may begin to decrease even earlier.
Tereshkin is confident that India will be the main supplier of gasoline by sea to Russia, which is simultaneously one of the largest consumers of Russian oil. It is not coincidental that the calculation of the import parity used to determine the damping for importers is based on the cost of fuel in Indian ports, adjusted for transportation costs to Russian ports, including insurance premiums and transshipment costs. Indian ORFs are unlikely to export fuel with high sulphur content (lower environmental classes), as they would incur losses not only in the Russian market but also in other markets.
Frolov predicts that the volumes of foreign supplies are unlikely to significantly impact gasoline prices in Russia and only partially compensate for the volumes lost due to ORF shutdowns. Currently, imports cover about 5% of the country’s monthly needs.
Source: RG.RU
