The quantities of petrol being discussed are those transported to Russia by sea from India and Morocco, delivered to the port of Murmansk and made available for trading on the exchange. It can be stated that demand for such imported petrol in Russia is currently close to zero. For instance, fuel from Belarus is commonly supplied through direct contracts between suppliers and buyers, with substantial volumes, while since the beginning of August, more than 16.74 thousand tonnes of Belarusian petrol have been sold via the St. Petersburg Exchange.
Fuel imports into Russia were permitted from July 1 to prevent a market shortage during the high-demand holiday season. Russian oil refining volumes have been forced down due to unscheduled maintenance shutdowns at refineries following drone attacks.
This has primarily impacted the supply of petrol in the domestic market, as production was only 10-15% above consumption levels in Russia. Petrol exports had been banned since April 2026, but by the end of summer, additional volumes were required due to seasonal demand increases.
The majority of fuel imports were sourced from Belarusian refineries (212,000 tonnes in July), with some supplies also arriving from India and Morocco. According to Reuters, by the end of July around 140,000 tonnes of petrol had arrived in Murmansk. Furthermore, information from S&P Global Commodities at Sea indicates that around 23,000 tonnes of petrol are currently en route to Russia from Turkey. Notably, these are being delivered to Baltic ports rather than the nearest Russian port, Novorossiysk, which will undoubtedly increase transportation costs.
Petrol from India is significantly more expensive than Russian petrol.
Meanwhile, the fuel situation in certain regions of Russia remains tense. Some petrol stations are closed, while long queues often form at those that are operational. The primary issue with imported fuel transported by sea is its price. Since imported petrol is initially more expensive than Russian fuel, such shipments are subject to a damping mechanism. This involves budget subsidies that compensate importers for part of the price difference between the indicative wholesale prices (set by the government annually) in Russia and the cost of fuel on foreign markets. Transportation costs are also taken into account. However, even with this compensation, Indian or Moroccan petrol (AI-92) was traded at the St. Petersburg Exchange for 105,000 roubles per tonne, which is 39% higher than the exchange quotations for AI-92 (75,530 roubles per tonne).
This is not the price that buyers would like to see, nor one that can realistically be used for retail sales at petrol stations, noted Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council of the "Russian Petrol Station" competition, in an interview with "RG". Considering delivery costs, the retail price for such petrol will be around 100 roubles or higher. However, without the damping mechanism, it would be priced at 150 or 160 roubles per litre, the expert highlighted.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, prices for Indian fuel will significantly exceed those from Russian refineries, even when accounting for the subsidies related to the "import" damping mechanism. Subsidies will be disbursed with a certain lag, similar to what occurs for payments under the damping mechanism for Russian refineries. Due to the necessity to "recoup" high logistical costs, fuel importers will need to provide considerable discounts to end customers.
Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, suggests that rising logistical costs due to increasing freight rates and overall supply risks to Russia are also contributing factors. Aside from maritime delivery, fuel must be distributed across Russia, which incurs additional expenses. This also explains the high petrol prices on the exchange.
Gusev emphasises that the situation regarding imported marine fuel supplies should normalise. People tend to be quite conservative, and they are hesitant to purchase new stocks. For example, it is currently unclear how to supply petrol of lower environmental classes (Euro-2, Euro-3, Euro-4), which have now been permitted for turnover. A couple of weeks may be needed for the situation to stabilise, allowing everyone to understand how to proceed, the expert believes.
It is worth mentioning that the demand for petrol in Russia traditionally declines in the second half of September, which should positively affect fuel availability and prices at petrol stations. Given the existing challenges this year, it may even begin to decrease earlier.
Tereshkin is confident that India will be the primary supplier of petrol to Russia via maritime routes, as it is also one of the largest consumers of Russian oil. Notably, the import parity calculation used for determining the damping mechanism for importers is linked to the fuel prices at Indian ports, adjusted for transportation costs to Russian ports, including insurance premiums and transshipment costs. Indian refineries are unlikely to export fuel with a high sulphur content (lower environmental classes), as they would incur losses not only in Russia but in other markets as well.
According to Frolov, it is likely that overseas supply volumes will not affect petrol prices in Russia significantly, nor will they compensate for the volumes lost due to refinery shutdowns. Currently, imports are meeting around 5% of the country’s monthly needs.
Source: RG.RU
