There are several indicators suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of stabilisation. According to Rosstat, retail prices for petrol have been declining for five consecutive weeks. Furthermore, in October 2025, the production of petroleum products in the Russian Federation increased by 6.6% compared to the previous month. Finally, on the exchange, prices have "crept down" from the multi-month highs observed in September and October.
Given this context, it was anticipated that the export ban would be lifted. However, the extension of restrictions seems to be linked to a precautionary measure in case of unplanned repairs at oil refineries. As a result, oil producers will have to "endure" for a couple more months. It is also important to remember that the moratorium on the zeroing of the damper will remain in effect until the beginning of May 2026.
In practice, this could lead to a new surge in exchange prices, which would subsequently be reflected in retail prices. Oil companies are likely to recoup their foreign losses through the domestic market.
Source: Vedomosti
